Setting the Odds for Every NBA Postseason Award

The All-Star Game is behind us and we are officially locked into the NBA's second half. Time to separate the contenders from pretenders in the playoff race. 

It's also when the real debate for the awards heats up, especially when you consider that while we are only just getting under way for the second half of the season, most teams only have about 32 or 33 games left to play!

So where do all the awards stand so far? We'll take a look at the current "odds," which are really my estimation of each player's chance of winning the awards.

One thing to bear in mind here is these are the chances of who will win the awards, not who should win the awards. The difference might seem slight, but it's huge. It's the difference between my telling you what my opinion is and my read on what the prevailing opinion is.

Executive of the Year

Neil Olshey, Los Angeles Clippers: 1/3

With the additions to the Clippers in the offseason, Olshey pretty much won this before the season started. The only question was whether Vinny Del Negro could push the envelope of his own ineptitude to the point that he could even screw up Lob City. The easy answer here is he hasn't yet. As weird as this sounds, the Los Angeles Clippers are going to win Executive of the Year.

David Morway, Indiana Pacers: 10/1

Further under the radar is David Morway, who landed David West and George Palle in the offseason and has the Pacers currently with the third-best record in the Eastern Conference. In fact, they are only one game worse than the Clippers!

Glen Grunwald, New York Knikcs 20/1

It might be time to remove that "interim" tag from his title. Weirdly, the difference between him retaining his job and not retaining his job might have something to do with what had nothing to do with him—the odd luck of finding a genuine nugget in a pile of fools gold (plucking Jeremy Lin from the D-League) isn't genius, but it looks like it.

Rookie of the Year

Kyrie Irving: 2/1

For the first part of the season it looked like Ricky Rubio was going to run away with the award, as he was the most exciting player to watch.

The more we watch, though, the more one thing becomes apparent—Kyrie Irving is a better player.

In fact, Irving is looking like a better player than anyone thought he could be. He might not be the next LeBron James, but he could very well be the next Chris Paul.

Ricky Rubio: 8/1

Rubio is still playing splendidly, even if it isn't as well as Irving. He has the Timberwolves in contention for a playoff spot. That coveted "lottery pick" the Hornets pressed so hard for is suddenly looking decidedly non-lottery. Rubio and Love have all the appearance of a point guard to power forward combination that will be working together for years to come a la Stockton to Malone.

MarShon Brooks: 20/1

Brooks is at the same time both a distant third and a decisive third. Brooks is a truly talented player with a ceiling that is high. He is averaging 14.6 points in just 30 minutes a game this season. In a league that has not been furnishing a lot of great shooting guards lately, as he develops and Kobe Bryant and Dwyane Wade get older, it's not a reach to suggest that in five years he could be the best shooting guard in the league.

Most Improved Player

Jeremy Lin: 5/1

No, this is not "linsane." Can anyone really argue that there is a more improved player than Lin? He went from playing out of the league entirely to having a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 22.3 and becoming an international star.

How much of that stardom is due to being a Cinderella story playing in New York and how much has to do with his actual play is a matter of discussion.

However, without his tremendous improvement, we aren't discussing any of it. You can argue Ryan Anderson and Marcin Gortat are better, but Lin has raised his PER more than the other two put together.

On top of that, bear in mind that this isn't just a measure of who "should" win but who "will" win.

Ryan Anderson: 6/1

Anderson is probably the best player on this list. He's an outstanding shooter, and his PER is off the charts at 22.7. Here's an absolutely amazing number for you: Anderson already has broken the NBA record for most three-pointers made with an offensive rebound percentage of at least 10 percent.

If you think about it, those are two talents that are very hard to blend together. By virtue of being out by the three-point line and taking shots, it makes it difficult to be under the net getting offensive rebounds. That he is among the leaders in both categories speaks highly of his skill sets.

Marcin Gortat: 12/1

Moth Gortat and Anderson were throw ins in different trades involving Orlando. Sort of ironic that they are now two of the most improved players in the league. It just goes to show that there's value in the "and others" sometimes. 

Gortat is averaging about 16 points and 10 boards per game this year. He certainly belongs in the conversation for Most Improved Player.

Sixth Man of the Year

James Harden 3/2

Pretty much this award is Harden's to lose. Coming off the bench for the Thunder he's the team's third leading scorer with 16.8 points on a team that includes Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. On top of that with Eric Maynor going down with an injury for the season, he's not technically a point guard, but he's taken over the primary the distributing duties while Westbrook sits, and is averaging 3.4 dimes a game. And if all that's not enough for you, he's a solid defender. 

Lou Williams 5/1

If anyone has a chance to take the award from Harden, it's Williams who is the Philadelphia 76ers leading scorer at 15.5 points per game. Williams also adds passing with 3.8 assists per game. So why does Harden get the heavy advantage over Williams? Three reasons. First, Oklhahoma City has a much better record. Second, he shoots .471 to Williams .403. Third, he's got the beard. OK. The beard isn't a real reason (or is it?)

Al Harrington 20/1

Al Harrington probably should be right there i the conversation with Williams and Harden but he isn't. I'm not sure why but it probably has to do with media exposure. Denver just isn't getting it. Harrington averages 14.3 points and 6.2 boards, putting his numbers right on par with the other two. He doesn't play in a large market or for a favorite to win the title though, so he just doesn't get the same exposure. 

Coach of the Year

Tom Thibodeau: 3/1

What Tom Thibodeau has going against him is that he won last year. No one has ever won the award in consecutive years. Does that mean he shouldn't? 

The Bulls have missed 42 starts due to injuries. Of those, 17 have been from All-Stars Luol Deng and reigning MVP Derrick Rose. They've missed a total of 57 games from key rotation players.

That is a huge number of games lost, particularly in a shortened season where those minutes other players need to make up add up even faster. When you add in they've also played the most road games of any team in the league, it's even more difficult to overcome.

No excuses though, and none are needed. In spite of that the Bulls currently have as many wins as any team in the NBA and are fielding the 10th-best defensive rating since the advent of the three-point line.

Gregg Popovich: 7/2

Greg Popovich has his own injuries to deal with. He lost his best player, Manu Ginobili, and the world decreed the Spurs would be lucky to go .500 without him. Pops didn't seem to care what the world thought. Through brilliant management of his team, the development of rookie Kahwi Leonard and utilizing Tony Parker at a near MVP level, he not only kept the Spurs at .500, he even put them on a nine-game win streak.

Byron Scott: 15/1

The Cavaliers might not win a championship before the Heat, but the boast made a year ago by owner Dan Gilbert is looking a lot less ludicrous right now.

Byron Scott might not be the whole reason, but he's a big part of the reason. He's coaching the young Cavaliers team in a way that is developing the young talent while keeping the veterans from getting disgruntled. He probably won't win the award, but he'll get some ballot love to acknowledge what  a great job he is doing with the Cavs.

Defensive Player of the Year

Dwight Howard: 3/2

I was going to try to make a case for Tyson Chandler. I just couldn't. Dwight Howard will win the Defensive Player of the Year this year because he's the best defensive player in the league. Howard is one of the most special defensive players the league has ever seen. It's just too bad he can't make free throws.

Tyson Chandler: 10/1

That Chandler is carrying the Knicks defense the way he is is purely amazing. That you can say the words "Knicks" and "defense" consecutively without delivering a punch line is a testament to his ability. His Synergy stats aren't actually that far behind Howard's, but they are behind.

Luol Deng: 15/1

Deng is just now starting to get the recognition from the rest of the league for what those of us in Chicago have been saying since last year: Luol Deng is one of the best defensive players in the NBA.

His Synergy numbers are actually better than LeBron James. He gives up .68 points per play overall and .55 in isolation. James gives up .87 and .57 respectively.

For those who want to give all the credit to the system, bear in mind that the Bulls gave up 10 points per game more while Deng was out.

MVP

LeBron James: 1/2

Pretty much the only ones who are still not giving the MVP to LeBron James this year are Skip Bayless and those who listen to Skip Bayless. There is a point where you have to be flexible and admit that reality is happening. Whether you like that reality or not is not important—it is reality. 

James is having the most efficient season in the history of the NBA. His PER is a ridiculous 32.4. There simply is not a good argument for anyone else. Postseason doesn't matter; it's a regular-season award, and this year James is the best and the most valuable player.

Kevin Durant: 5/1

Kevin Durant is a distant second. He could win in a lot of years, but not this year. Probably the biggest advantage, and really the only advantage, that he has over James is what happens in late-game situations. Durant has five game-winning shots this year. The clutch argument is heavily in Durant's favor, and for those who want to substitute the argument for most "valuable" player with most "clutch" player, you could have a case.

The problem is that the the other 47:50 of the game matters too. In those moments, James is a vastly superior player.

Chris Paul: 15/1

Chris Paul gets the votes for helping to "turn around" the Clippers. Certainly there are a lot of contributions from other players too. Blake Griffin has emerged as one of the best power forwards in the game and has added some outside touch to his dunking. DeAndre Jordan has improved. They also added the now lost Chauncey Billups and Caron Butler.

Yet all of this is still coming together because of Chris Paul. He's the ninja and they are the armory. All of those weapons are useless without the ninja. Paul is methodical and deliberate in his execution of the offense, and the end result is the execution of team after team. Paul deserves to be in the conversation because of both his play and leadership.