Boston Red Sox: Keeping Up with Yankees; 16 Starters to Pursue in Trades

A few days ago, I wrote about 16 possible starters the Red Sox might still be able to obtain through free agency. Given salary cap/luxury tax issues, however, I do not expect any expensive free agent signings.

Here's that feature:

Boston Red Sox Free Agent News: 16 Ways They Can Still Upgrade the Rotation

Since then, they are reported to be kicking the tires on Vicente Padilla, one of the lesser-known names on that list. 

The more likely way for the Red Sox to add a big name to their rotation is through a trade, which can subtract as well as add payroll.

There may be more of a sense of urgency to pull the trigger on a swap now that the New York Yankees have made their moves: multiple sources (including John Heyman) have reported that the Seattle Mariners have traded young starter Michael Pineda to the Yankees for their top prospect, catcher/designated hitter Jesus Montero.

Shortly thereafter, they announced the signing of Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Hiroki Kuroda to a one year, $10 million deal.

I had included Pineda in the first draft of this article, and had previously argued that the Red Sox should not overpay for Kuroda.

I still believe the Red Sox may be better served by waiting until closer to spring training, when the asking prices will drop for starters still on the market.

Personally, I hope general manager Ben Cherington sticks to his guns, and does not overreact to the Yankees' acquisition of Pineda and Kuroda.

Be that as it may, I believe one key to the Red Sox future is Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is currently rehabbing from season-ending Tommy John surgery. He hopes to be back on the mound after the All-Star break.

The highly-touted Japanese pitcher has failed to meet expectations during his stint with Boston, posting three straight sub-par seasons (two of which were shortened by injury). However, he still has potential, and could well be the additional starter Boston needs to carry them through the second half.

Or, he could be a critical component in a deal that would bring this stud to Boston…

Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle Mariners

I will keep beating this drum as long as the financial problems of Seattle's owners continue and as long as Hernandez does not sign an extension to stay in Seattle.

I have argued since the season ended that the Red Sox should make a play for at least one highly-ranked starter to help overcome the bitter taste left in the mouths of Red Sox Nation by the September collapse. The availability of Hernandez would cause the Red Sox to throw their luxury tax concerns out the window. After all, it's only money.

The fact that the Red Sox have been able to fill a major bullpen hole with a closer who made $465,000 last year (instead of paying a Papelbon or Madson more than $10 million per year) gives Boston some wiggle room salary-wise in attempting to deal for a stud.

Yes, Andrew Bailey will probably get more than $3 million in arbitration, and there are big raises coming for Ellsbury, Gonzales and Pedroia. But J.D. Drew's contract finally comes off the books this year.

I know that every previous offer for Felix has been rebuffed by Seattle, and they may be even more reluctant to move King Felix now that they have traded Pineda, but here’s a road map for getting a deal done:

The Red Sox & Mariners Should Do a Deal for Felix Hernandez

Seattle has an abysmally bad offense—so bad that many superb pitching efforts are wasted. This year they were dead last in all of MLB in most offensive statistics: batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs batted in, runs scored, hits and ono-base-plus-slugging.

In the process, the Mariners set the franchise record for worst-ever team batting average (.233), breaking the previous record, set in 2010, of .236.

Their .292 on-base percentage followed a .296 on-base percentage in 2010, making Seattle the first team to have an on-base percentage of under .300 since mound was lowered in 1969.

The Mariners have holes at designated hitter, left field, third base and shortstop. They need to fill those holes with good sticks—preferably left-handed hitters who can take advantage of the short porch in right at Safeco Field.

The Red Sox have bats that could fill those needs.

A key incentive for the Mariners to do such a deal is for the Red Sox to take on the last years of Chone Figgins' and Ichiro Suzuki's contracts.

Ichiro had a sub-par season in 2011. He is 38 years old, and he is due $17 million for 2012, the last year of his contract. While the Mariners will be careful not to diss one of the best players in franchise history, they would welcome the chance to get out from under Ichiro's huge contract.

As a 10/5 player (10 years in MLB, five with the same team), Ichiro can't be traded without his consent. But the opportunity to win a World Series before he retires may cause him to accept a trade.

Dealing Ichiro would require Seattle to do it in a way that saves face, both for Ichiro and the team, especially since the principal owner of the Mariners is Japanese. Hiroshi Yamauchi, the largest shareholder in Nintendo Corporation, would have to be able to justify the trade.

The solution to that problem is that Daisuke Matsuzaka would go to Seattle as part of the deal.

By including Daisuke in the deal, the Red Sox could soften the blow to the large Japanese community in the Pacific Northwest. Matsuzaka is also in the final year of his contract, under which he is due $10 million. Daisuke has started six games in Seattle and has posted an ERA of 3.05.

Yes, he is on the disabled list, but that is not an obstacle to a trade. So long as the receiving team is willing to accept a disabled player, the commissioner's office can approve the deal. The Red Sox could include a performance clause to protect Seattle in case Matsuzaka does not come back as hoped from Tommy John surgery. If he does come back, Seattle will have gained another, younger, Japanese icon with some upside.

There are 17 million reasons for Seattle to part with Ichiro now. Also, he’s nearing the end of the road, and there are questions about his clubhouse role with a decidedly younger roster. 

Art Thiel of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer wrote an article last July entitled “Mariners Need to Move Ichiro, Felix Now.” His conclusion? “The overwhelming mediocrity throughout MLB presents a great opportunity for the M’s to get well at several positions. All it takes is guts.”

It certainly would not trouble me to see Suzuki patrolling right field in Fenway. He still has his speed, and one of the best outfield arms in the game. The commitment would only be for one year, but who knows? It could be a marriage made in heaven.

I guarantee you that Felix Hernandez will leave in a New York minute when his contract is up in 2014 if the Mariners have not become a competitive team with a chance to go deep into the playoffs.

Interestingly enough, the best way for that to happen is if Hernandez is traded away (if not now, then at the trade deadline) to get the necessary bats for Seattle to make a run. Now that they have Montero, why not go all in and make a run?

If the Mariners won't budge on Hernandez, perhaps their National League colleagues down the coast could be persuaded to part with…

Tim Lincecum, RHP, San Francisco Giants

While the recent Jonathan Sanchez/Melky Cabrera trade makes it less likely that the San Francisco Giants would trade Tim Lincecum, the possibilities are worthy of some speculation, even if somewhat fanciful.

Just to be clear, I’m not starting the rumor about the potential availability of the Giants ace known as "The Freak."

Dave Cameron did that on Fangraphs in November, in a piece entitled, “Can the Giants Improve by Trading Tim Lincecum?”

Other writers, to include Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, jumped on the bandwagon. Doug Mead followed with an article on Bleacher Report.

The point is that the Giants need offense. They also need financial flexibility to lock up most of their young stud pitchers.

The Giants, like the Mariners, are built on starting pitching. With Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong and top prospect Eric Surkamp waiting in the wings, the Giants are loaded on the mound. 

The financial reality, however, is that they cannot sign them all. The options have narrowed this week as Chris Haft of MLB.com has reported that the Giants have signed right-hander Vogelsong to a two-year contract with a club option for 2014.

The best way to provide flexibility and improve their offense would be to trade either Lincecum or Cain, and sign the other to a long-term deal.

Cain may well be the easier of the two to lock up, although he is eligible for free agency after this season.  Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com wrote on December 28 about Lincecum, "…the sides appear to remain a couple of years and tens of millions of dollars apart."

The Giants have reportedly offered a four year deal worth $80 million, while Lincecum is seeking an eight-year contract.  Lincecum can become a free agent following the 2013 season.

The precedent for a championship-caliber team trading a top-of-the-rotation pitching stud has already been established: just look at Cliff Lee.

While the Giants' pitching is top-notch, calling their offense “impotent” would be a gross understatement.

The Giants finished dead-last in the National League in runs scored last season, and even with a pitching staff that finished with better numbers than in the championship 2010 campaign, the impotent offense sank San Francisco's playoff chances down the stretch.

Only Pablo Sandoval hit more than 14 home runs.

Even though GM Brian Sabean and the rest of the Giants brain trust insist that their priority is to keep their rotation intact, the grim reality is that less expensive arms at the bottom of the rotation will win games if they have an offense to produce runs.

In addition to providing the Giants with a major league bat, (such as Kevin Youkilis), the Red Sox could give the Giants prospects (catcher Ryan Lavarnaway, first baseman Lars Anderson, outfielder Ryan Kalish, and shorstop Xander Bogaerts).

I would imagine any trade would also have to involve financial relief to the Giants, such as taking on the burdensome contracts of Barry Zito and Aubrey Huff.

The Red Sox could seriously consider such a deal, because they could use Huff as an outfielder. Zito, although grossly overpaid, has been a steady innings-eater, and his contract is only for one more year after 2012. (Having said that, he is owed $39 million for 2012 and 2013. There is a team option for $18 million in 2014 with a $7 million buyout.)

No matter where he goes, Lincecum is going to be expensive. But he's also a two-time Cy Young winner who's not yet 30 years old.

The biggest impediment to a Lincecum trade would probably be fan reaction, because "The Freak" is now the face of the Giants franchise. The only way this deal goes down is if the Red Sox offer players who can step into the Giants starting lineup and produce from day one. Youkilis certainly fits that bill, but perhaps the prospects mentioned above will not be enough.

If the package is not enough to land Lincecum, perhaps it could be tweaked to reel in…

Matt Cain, RHP, San Francisco Giants

Many think Matt Cain is the ace of the Giants staff, not Tim Lincecum. He is certainly a workhouse, having pitched more than 200 innings for five years in a row. He has a 3.35 career earned run average (2.88 earned run average in 2011). He is also unhittable when it counts; Cain has an earned run average of  0.00 in 21.1 playoff innings pitched.

He is also only 27 years old. 

As with many West Coast pitchers, some question Cain's ability to make the transition to the American League (especially the AL East), and move from the vast expanses of AT&T Park to the friendly confines of Fenway Park. OK, so what if his number creep up a bit to compensate for the powerhouse lineups he will face? 

Cain may be pitching in Tim Lincecum's shadow, but on any other roster he might well be a Cy Young candidate.

However, Cain's salary jumps from $7 million to $15 million in 2012, and he becomes a free agent after this coming year. The Giants may not have enough money to sign both Cain and Tim Lincecum to long-term deals.

One way for San Francisco to solve its financial problem is to trade one and sign the other. I would imagine any trade would involve financial relief to the Giants, such as taking on the burdensome contracts of Barry Zito and Aubrey Huff.

As described in detail on the previous slide, the Giants need offense, something the Red Sox have in abundance, so the two teams could match up well for a trade. A package including Kevin Youkilis and prospects could work, especially if the Red Sox free up payroll for the Giants.

Jon Niese, LHP, New York Mets

Jonathan Niese, 25, is under team control through 2015 and could be an alternative after the Red Sox find the asking price to be too high for the best-known names.

Even Niese, however, could command a steep price for an under-the-radar pitcher who went 11-11 with a 4.40 earned run average for the New York Mets in 27 games (26 starts) in 2011 with 7.9 strikeouts and 2.5 walks per nine innings. Word out of the winter meetings was that the Mets were seeking a catcher, an infielder and prospects for the young starter.

The biggest advantage is that he is inexpensive ($452,000 in 2011). He will not be arbitration-eligible until after the 2012 season, and won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2016.

According to Paul Hagen on MLB.com, one scout said, "Because the Mets have been down, he might not be looked at in a sexy light. But he went 11-11 for a really bad team last year, and that counts for something." 

He is a ground ball pitcher, which fits well into Red Sox GM Ben Cherington's game plan. Niese also posted a better than three-to-one ratio of strikeouts to walks last season.

Mike Axisia of MLBTradeRumors.com does raise one warning flag. Hamstring and oblique problems have held him back somewhat, which is why he's never thrown more than 180 innings in any pro season.

The Yankees may match up better with the Mets on the trading front, since they have the kind of prospects their cross-town rivals covet. Whether they would part with any of them for a lesser light such as Niese remains to be seen.

Alex Speier of WEEI.com reported last week that the Red Sox did not match up at this point either. He wrote,  "The Mets do not believe that Boston has the kind of players whom they would seek in a haul for a cost-effective young starter."

Wandy Rodriguez, LHP, Houston Astros

With two years and $25 million left on his contract, the under-performing Wandy Rodriguez may be one of the reasons for the recent management upheaval in Houston.

His name was mentioned frequently at the 2011 trade deadline, and he continues to be a popular trade rumor target this offseason. He's a left-hander, is only 32 and has posted four seasons in a row with an earned run average of 3.60 or lower for a 106-loss team. Despite the demand for starting pitching, however, no one has pulled the trigger on a deal.

That is probably because of his contract, combined with concerns about his ability to make the transition from the no-pressure situation of pitching for the worst team in baseball. That transition problem increases geometrically when one considers the pressure cooker of the AL East.

Luke Adams reported recently on MLBTrade Rumors.com that the Houston Astros might even eat some salary in a trade.  Although he is under club control through 2014, he’s due $23 million over the next two seasons. A $13 million club option for 2014 becomes a player option if he’s traded. (Also, the 2014 option vests if he throws 180 innings in 2013.)

Gavin Floyd, RHP, Chicago White Sox

Gavin Floyd is still under contract to the Chicago White Sox, but word out of the Windy City is that he may be traded now that Chicago has signed John Danks to an extension. 

There is nothing spectacular about the 28-year-old Floyd, who has a career 4.55 ERA. Last year, he went 12-13 with a 4.37 earned run average and a walks-and-hits-per-innings-pitched rate of 1.162. However, he has been a reliable workhorse for the White Sox, posting 30 or more starts four years running. He has also been relatively injury-free.

He has averaged 195 innings per year, and he gets deep into games—more than six innings per start. His earned run average, however, has crept up each year, starting with 3.84 in 2008 to 4.37 in 2011. 

Delving deeper into his earned run average, he allowed a disproportionately high [35 percent] of base runners to score in 2011. He should be able to better that ratio in the future, which would also lower his earned run average.

His contract is manageable. After a great 2008 season (17-8, 3.48 ERA) and a decent 2009, the White Sox signed Floyd to a four-year, $15.5 million deal. He is guaranteed $7 million in 2012, and there is a team option for $9.5 million in 2013.

Floyd, an Annapolis, Md., native, was selected fourth by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2001 amateur draft (For trivia buffs, the next person drafted after Floyd was fellow Mount Saint Joseph High School graduate Mark Teixeira).

Floyd is an imposing 6'6" tall, weighing in at around 240. In his last four years with Chicago, Floyd threw 780.1 innings, also averaging more than six innings per start. His earned run average for the same period has been 4.09, with an earned run average-plus of 109. He has made 125 starts in four years, and has averaged about seven strikeouts per nine innings pitched, 

His career average is 2.7 walks per nine innings, although he did have his best control year in 2011, walking only 2.1 per nine innings.

However, Floyd has pitched inconsistently against the AL East. He has done very well against the Tampa Bay Rays (2.57 ERA) and the Red Sox (3.47 ERA, 2.84 at Fenway). However, his career earned run average against New York is 5.98, and he has particularly struggled against the Toronto Blue Jays (7.26 ERA).

What would Chicago want in return?

"We're more open to making potential moves that take us a little younger, take us a step back and live to fight another day if we can get what we've identified as the type of targets you want in such a deal," GM Kenny Williams told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune.

This translates into young, major league-ready talent.

Tyler Matzek, LHP, Colorado Rockies

In a scouting report for Project Prospect last May, Charlie Saponara wrote, "Matzek has the type of stuff you dream of finding in a left-handed starter."

Tyler Matzek, a 2009 first-round draft choice, is a pitcher with a big upside who is rumored to be part of a trade proposal between the Mets and the Colorado Rockies that includes third baseman David Wright. However, he took a step backwards at the minor league level, missing many weeks of the 2011 season due to some incredible wildness.

According to John Manuel of baseballamerica.com, Matzek walked 61 batters in 42 innings to start the 2011 season—and that was in Class A ball and the California League!

I understand this is a bit of a departure from the premise—finding another starter to plug into the Boston rotation—but if Matzek could pull it together, he is closer to the major leagues than many people think.

Considering Matzek for the Red Sox raises the warning flags of the Yankees' bad experience with their erratic fireballer, Andrew Brackman. However, the Yankees had a lot invested in that former member of the "Killer Bs", so Matzek might be a better long-term, relatively low-risk prospect for the Red Sox. After all, the Rockies have already paid his $3.9 million signing bonus.

Last June, the Rockies took the unprecedented step of sending Matzek back to his roots to try to find the stuff with which he had dominated in high school. On this sabbatical, he went back to work with his high school coach, attempting to undo some mechanical changes that had been forced on him when he first came to the minors.

According to Manuel, Matzek's velocity had also become a problem, ranging as low as the mid-80s and peaking at 94-95 miles per hour. At Capistrano Valley High (California), Matzek regularly hit 98 as a senior.

Whatever they did seemed to work, because he showed marked improvement after he returned to the minors later in the year. However, his total season line was still pretty dreadful: 5-7, 6.22 earned run average, 111 walks in 97 innings. On the plus side, Matzek struck out 9.6 batters per nine innings and registered a good rate of only 0.7 home runs per nine innings.

The point is that the Rockies are flush with pitching prospects, and they could afford to part with Matzek for a decent position player or prospect.

The Red Sox could use Matzek to replenish their arms down on the farm, and hope that he straightens out enough to compete for a roster spot sooner rather than later.

Matzek could be an interesting wild card in a Red Sox-Rockies trade, and now is the time to strike—while the Rockies are down on their former first-round pick.

Tom Gorzelanny, LHP, Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals are an intriguing potential trade partner for the Red Sox, because they have too many major league starters as of today. 

Pete Kerzel of MASN wrote, "There's no way around it: The Nationals have at least one more starting pitcher than spots in the vastly improved five-man rotation that will break camp from spring training in Viera, Fla., in early April."

Those pitchers include Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Chien-Ming Wang, Ross Detwiler, John Lannan, Tom Gorzelanny and Craig Stammen.

So, over the next three slides, we will take a look at three of these potential trade prospects. Interestingly enough, all three are southpaws.

Lefty Tom Gorzelanny is probably wondering which of the baseball gods he may have offended. In his seven-year career as a dependable end of the rotation guy, he has toiled for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs and Nationals, and only one of those squads won more games than they lost.

A second round draft pick in 2003, he was one of the Pirates' top prospects in 2005. In 2007, he was the staff ace (14-10, 3.88 ERA). His performance inexplicably went south thereafter, and he was traded to the Cubs, where he spent two seasons as a long reliever and fifth starter. He ended up with the Nationals in January 2011.

For the past four years he has also averaged 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings, and only one home run per nine innings. He doesn't walk a lot of batters. With the acquisition of Gio Gonzalez this offseason and return of ace Stephen Strasburg, Gorzelanny will likely be relegated to long relief if he stays in Washington.

Third-year arbitration-eligible for 2012, he earned $2.1 million last year. He was tendered a contract in December, and is expected to return to Washington for the 2012 season—unless he is traded.

However, since the Nationals are probably viewing him as bullpen fodder, they may not ask a lot for him in a trade. The Nationals need a center fielder, and Ryan Kalish might fit the bill.

In Boston, Gorzelanny could compete for the fifth starter job—and who knows how good he might be with the Red Sox lineup behind him?

Ross Detwiler, LHP, Washington Nationals

Ross Detwiler, Washington's first-round pick (sixth overall) in the 2007 draft, is a 6'5'' lefty with a mid-90's fastball. Although he was the first player drafted in 2007 to appear in a major-league game, members of the Washington sports media believe that he is now fighting fighting for a slot with Tom Gorzelanny and John Lannan.

This is one of the unintended consequences of the Gio Gonzales acquisition: someone now has to get pushed out of the back end of the rotation.

Detwiler has great stuff, but over the course of his short MLB career he has dealt with a number of lower body injuries which have limited him to 29 starts in the majors since 2009. He had surgery in February 2010 to repair a torn hip flexor.

He started 16 games in 2011 for Triple-A Syracuse, with a 6-6 record and a 4.53 ERA.  With the Nationals in 2011. He also started 10 games for the Nationals in 2011, and appeared in relief five times, earning an excellent 3.00 earned run average for a relatively bad team. Lefties batted only .167 against him.

Down the stretch, the 25-year-old left-hander went 2-0 in three starts in which he gave up just 10 hits and two runs in 19 innings.

The Nationals won’t face arbitration with Detwiler until after next season, and he isn't slated to reach free agency until after the 2015 season. He is making a relatively paltry sum (by MLB standards) on his current contract. 

The problem for the Nationals is that Detwiler is out of options, meaning he can't be sent to Triple-A without first being put on waivers—and some other team would claim him for sure. He is also a first-round draft pick, which may cause the front office to overvalue him.

But does it make sense to stash him in the bullpen? Washington may be better off trading him while he has a decent perceived value.

Washington does need a center fielder, and last August there was a deal on the table with Houston for the Astros' Michael Bourn.  MLB.com's Bill Ladson, wrote that "Houston wanted left-hander Ross Detwiler to be part of any deal the two clubs make and Washington declined, according to a baseball source." 

But that was prior to the Gio Gonzales trade, which creates a different set of problems (and opportunities) for Washington.

John Lannan, LHP, Washington Nationals

Of the three Washington lefties previewed here, the one that seems to fit the Red Sox mold the best is John Lannan. Lannan led the staff in wins, starts and innings pitched in 2011, and is under club control for two more years. Also of interest to GM Ben Cherington is Lannan's ground ball rate: 54.1 percent, which is right up there in Aaron Cook range.

According to Patrick Reddington of federalbaseball.com, that ground ball rate was the sixth highest among NL pitchers. Lannan also ranked second in double play balls induced.

Virtually every description of Lannan's career includes the words "reliable," "steady" and "back-of-the-rotation starter." He has made 30 starts in three of the past four seasons, and his 162-game average for innings pitched is 199.

Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post did some research on Lannan, who ranks in the top eight in his age group in career games started, innings pitched and quality starts. The other seven are Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Chad Billingsley, John Danks, Clayton Kershaw and Yovani Gallardo.

Kilgore also reports there are only 26 pitchers in baseball who have thrown at least 710 innings with a 4.00 earned run average or better over the past four seasons.

However, Gio Gonzales' arrival has created a logjam in the starting rotation, and at least one Washington reporter thinks trading Lannan makes sense. Phil Wood of MASNsports.com writes, "I wouldn't be surprised if veteran lefty John Lannan ends up in some other team's uniform by opening day. The ballclub likes Lannan, but I suspect they like Ross Detwiler's stuff a little more."

Lannan is 27, a bit older than Detwiler, but more importantly Lannan is already arbitration eligible and will be a free agent after the 2013 season. He should make $4 million to $5 million in arbitration for 2012, so he will be more expensive than either Gorzelanny or Detwiler. 

Detwiler is also a former first-round draftee while Lannan is an 11th round pick. It's hard to imagine that distinction being lost on the front office.

A trade, perhaps for an outfielder, seems to be the best solution for the Nationals. Because Detwiler might offer more upside, and because Washington just dealt a number of its young arms to the Oakland Athletics to get Gonzales, they may prefer to keep the younger pitcher and think about moving Lannan.

Having written all this about three Washington pitchers, everything is predicated on the initial presumption that they have too many starting pitchers. But isn't that what folks said about the Red Sox last year? Look what happened.

Matt Garza, RHP, Chicago Cubs

Now that Gio Gonzalez has been dealt, Matt Garza is probably the most-discussed pitching trade prospect left. That's a double-edged sword, however, because all the chatter may cause Cubs GM Theo Epstein to overvalue his 28-year-old right-hander.

"If Theo trades Garza, he'll be looking to take someone to the cleaners," one scout told Paul Hagen of MLBTradeRumors.com

Epstein already caused the Yankees to look elsewhere, by demanding at least two, and possibly all three, of top Yankees prospects: Jesus Montero, pitcher Manny Banuelos and pitcher Dellin Betances.

Now that the Yankees have signed Hiroki Kuroda and traded Montero for Seattle's Michael Pineda, one might assume there is one less major suitor for Garza's services. Furthermore, most objective pitching talent evaluators slot Garza as a mid-rotation, not top-of-the-rotation guy.

The numbers back up those evaluations. In his 118 AL starts, Garza did little to project himself into the ace category. The Minnesota Twins drafted him in the first round in 2005, and he never really lived up to his prospect hype. To be fair, he made more than 30 starts three years in a row for the Tampa Bay Rays, and was a steady, reliable arm in the Tampa rotation.

Then came the trade to the Cubs, and 2011 was his best year yet in the major leagues. He went from 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings to nine strikeouts per nine innings. He cut his home runs allowed rate in half, to 0.6 per nine innings. His ERA dropped from 3.91 to 3.32.

As Kurt Mensching points out on Bless You Boys—a Tigers blog—his 11.2 percent swinging strike rate was great, but even better was his jump of 3.7 percent in swinging strike percentage.

Skeptics also point out this was Garza's first year in the National League Central, certainly a weaker division than the AL East. He ended up being the Cubs' best starter.

Garza made $5.95 million last year and is locked up for two more years. He should make at least a million more in 2012, along with a good payday for 2013 if he produces this year.

At a Christmas tree lighting in Chicago last month, Garza acknowledged all the trade rumors, according to Carrie Muskat/MLB.com. "I know how to beat [the Red Sox]," Garza told her. He has a career regular-season 7-4 record and 3.83 earned run average against them, and also beat them twice in the 2008 American League Championship Series.

He hasn't fared as well against the Yankees, with a 1-4 record and a 4.48 earned run average, which might have made him more interesting to the Bronx Bombers. Either way, he's very experienced with the crucible of the AL East.

Garza went 10-10 with a  earned run average, 1.26 walks-and-hits-per-innings-pitched rate and 197 strikeouts in 198 innings during his first season in the National League. 

The problem for the Red Sox is that the Cubs want young pitching in return, and Boston does not have any to spare. On the other hand, Chicago still owes compensation for Epstein's move to the Windy City, and that factor could bring the price down a bit.

Is Garza worth any of the top Red Sox prospects—all of whom Epstein knows well? While his proven AL East experience and workhorse reputation make Garza desirable to Boston, the Red Sox may be better served by waiting until closer to spring training, when the asking prices will drop for starters still on the market.

Personally, I hope GM Ben Cherington sticks to his guns, and does not overreact to the Yankees' acquisition of Pineda and Kuroda.

Unless the Red Sox can leverage the Epstein compensation here, there are more realistic deals out there to be made.

Brandon McCarthy, RHP, Oakland Athletics

Boston should check to see if GM Billy Beane's fire sale is continuing in Oakland. If so, Brandon McCarthy's price tag will almost certainly be less than Garza's.

This "other" A's pitcher may be more palatable cost-wise in the long run than Gio Gonzalez. Beane told MLB.com's Jane Lee that he is interested in adding an outfielder, either by free agency or trade. In the Andrew Bailey deal the As did acquire Josh Reddick, but gave up Ryan Sweeney.

Maybe Ryan Kalish could be part of a deal for McCarthy.

At age 28, Brandon McCarthy finally overcame his injury issues last season, posting a 9-9 record with a 3.32 earned run average. He walked only 25 in 170 innings, while striking out 123—giving him an impressive strikeouts-to-walks ratio of almost five to one.

On FanGraphs last month, Oakland manager Bob Melvin said that one of McCarthy's strengths is his ability to throw cutters and sinkers to both sides of the plate. “He’s a smart guy," Melvin added. "He’s continually trying to get better, not only understanding his own strengths and weaknesses, but he understands the strengths and weaknesses of the hitters as well. He‘s very well prepared.”

One of the more arcane statistical measurements for pitchers is FIP, "Fielding Independent Pitching", which, according to Baseball Prospectus, converts a pitcher's three true outcomes into an earned run average-like number. It places more weight on those elements of a game that the pitcher can control, thus leveling out the differences of different teams and different ballparks.

According to FanGraphs, McCarthy's 2.86 FIP was first in the American League and fifth in the majors in 2011, with only Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee and Madison Baumgarner ranked ahead of him.

He doesn’t strike out a lot of batters (6.5 K/9 last year), but he has superb control, ranking third in the majors in walks allowed (1.32 K/9). Pitching for the lowly As, he also produced a higher wins above replacement (4.7) than both Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. Heck, his wins above replacement was also better than Tim Lincecum, David Price and Zack Greinke.

Just as importantly, he earned only $1 million in 2011, and has one more year of arbitration eligibility.

The A's will be looking for prospects, as they were with Cahill, Gonzalez and Bailey, but the price tag would probably be one the Red Sox could meet.

Jair Jurrjens, RHP, Atlanta Braves

Mark Bowman from MLB.com reports that the Atlanta Braves are shopping Jair Jurrjens and that the Kansas City Royals are the frontrunner. Having signed Kuroda and traded for Pineda, the Yankees are probably no longer interested.

Although Jon Heyman tweeted on December 29 that the Red Sox "were not in on Jurrjens," things may have changed with the recent Yankee moves to upgrade their rotation.

Also, the Red Sox may be signaling that the Braves' asking price is too high. Like Cubs GM Theo Epstein with Matt Garza, the Braves are probably overvaluing Jurrjens, especially in light of the prospects the San Diego Padres received from the Cincinnati Reds in the Mat Latos deal. 

One of the positives is that the Curacao native is still only 25, and is not eligible for free agency until after the 2013 season. He came to Atlanta from Detroit in the 2007 trade for Edgar Renteria.

On the down side, he's had knee problems each of the last two seasons.

After decent seasons in 2008 and 2009, injuries started to crop up—a bad sign for a 24-year-old pitcher. He missed six weeks early in the 2010 season due to a hamstring problem. He then tore the meniscus in his right knee and was shut down for the rest of the season.

Jurrjens started 2011 like the proverbial house afire, entering the break with a 12-3 record and a miniscule 1.87 earned run average in 16 starts. He averaged almost seven innings per outing, and gave up only five home runs in those 16 starts (0.4 home runs per nine innings).

The 25-year-old righty made the All-Star team and was on his way to a blockbuster season, but a recurrence of his knee problem made him much less effective and eventually ended his season early. Even so, he ended up with a 13-6 record, an earned run average of 2.96 and a walks-and-hits-per-innings-pitched rate of 1.224.

The injuries may be why the Red Sox are not chasing Jurrjens at this point. His knee issues are a major concern, despite his upside if he's healthy. Given the MASH unit the Red Sox pitching staff already resembles, Boston would be wise to think carefully about this trade.

I'm not saying they should not take a chance on him. I'm just saying they should make sure they can justify the price they may have to pay to acquire him. His salary is not the issue. This will be his second arbitration-eligible offseason, and Jurrjens will certainly get a nice bump on his 2011 salary of $3.25 million. He should earn about $5 million in arbitration.

Coming into this offseason, the Braves' biggest needs were in the outfield and at shortstop. With arms such as Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson and Brandon Beachy, the Braves are one of the few teams ready to give up pitching for position players. They could afford to deal one pitcher for a bat, some prospects and a little financial flexibility.  

Even so, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun wrote that the Baltimore Orioles did not think highly of the Braves' offer of Jurrjens, Martin Prado and a minor league pitcher for outfielder Adam Jones. 

As spring training approaches, the trade value of Jurrjens may drop to where the Red Sox might take a chance on his upside in spite of the warning signs. 

Also, the longer the Braves wait to deal him, the less they will get in return. His price will drop the closer he gets to free agency.

Justin Masterson, RHP, Cleveland Indians

It's time for the Red Sox to revisit the Victor Martinez trade.

At the 2009 trading deadline, Masterson was a key piece in the package the Indians received for Martinez.

According to multiple reports from the Plain Dealer of Cleveland and ESPN, the Red Sox have made several efforts to get him back in the past two years. They know him well, having drafted him in the second round of the 2006 draft.

Last season, Masterson pitched more innings than ever before (216), and had career bests in earned run average (3.21) and wins with 12.

A trade for Masterson could complete GM Ben Cherington's shopping for the winter. From his previous acquisitions of Aaron Cook and Carlos Silva it's apparent that he is zeroing in on ground ball pitchers. According to FanGraphs, Masterson's ground ball rate is 56.1 percent, just a hair under Cook's 57 percent. The MLB average is 44 percent.

For a young starter he is affordable and under team control for two more years. Arbitration eligible for the first time this winter, Matt Swartz's projection is that Masterson will earn a $3.6 million award for 2012.  

So, what would it take to get him back? 

The Indians have a major need for a first baseman who can hit. They need to upgrade on Matt LaPorta.

As it happens, the Red Sox have the perfect trade chip to match up with Cleveland: Kevin Youkilis. 

Youkilis has serious credibility; at the start of last season he was 35th on the Sporting News' list of the 50 greatest current baseball players.

But he also poses a dilemma for the Red Sox.

The way he plays the game has taken a toll on his body, as the series of recent injuries shows. long-term, he needs to play first base or designated hitter to keep his body from breaking down. 

He won't be playing much first base in Boston with Adrian Gonzalez there. With the re-signing of David Ortiz as designated hitter, Youkilis doesn't really have a position to play full-time.

Youkilis will be 33 in March, and for a player of his caliber, he is relatively affordable at $12 million for 2012. This is the fourth and final year of a contract he signed in 2009, although there is a $13 million team option for 2013 with a $1 million buyout.

Last October, Cleveland Indians Featured Columnist Jim Piascik wrote, "If the Cleveland Indians are serious about contending in 2012, I think that they should seriously go after Kevin Youkilis."

In February, Paul Hoynes at the Cleveland Plain Dealer chimed in, "Boston [has] approached the Indians at least twice about trying to get him back. The Indians would be silly not to listen."

Youkilis for Masterson, straight up: what do you think?

Wily Peralta, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Since Prince Fielder isn't going back to Milwaukee, the Brewers are going to have a big hole to fill at first base.

Adam McCalvey of mlb.com writes that the Brewers plan to give perennial prospect Mat Gamel another shot to make the team, but there are big question marks about the 26-year-old's health and conditioning. Spring training injuries each of the past three years have cost him, and in his 194 major league plate appearances over four seasons he has hit just .222. 

A trade for an established first baseman like Youkilis could be one the Brewers would consider.

In return the Red Sox would probably want a package that included right-handed pitcher Wily Peralta, ranked No. 46 on Scout.com's Top 100 2012 prospects list. 

At 6'-2" and 240, he is expected to make an impact this spring training, with a very good chance to make the big league team as a mid-rotation starter. 

In his analysis of each team's top prospect, Bleacher Report Featured Columnist Zachary Bell wrote, "[In 2011] he was one of the best arms anywhere, putting up some pretty filthy numbers with incredible consistency. He dominated hitters in the Southern League for 21 starts before finally being granted his release to Triple-A, where he carved up PCL hitters with the same ease."

The Dominican Republic native was not made a full-time starter until 2010. However, in five late-season starts at Triple-A Nashville in 2011, Peralta had a 2.03 earned run average, struck out 40 of the 122 batters he faced and walked only 11. his walks-and-hits-per-innings-pitched rate was 1.032. 

Peralta could be the centerpiece of a deal for Youkilis.

Jeremy Guthrie, RHP, Baltimore Orioles

Guthrie is another one of those dependable hurlers who flies beneath the radar, eating innings while posting decent—if unspectacular—stats. He was on the trading block last summer, but according to Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com, "Former president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail didn't pull the trigger last July because he didn't think other clubs valued Guthrie as much as Baltimore."

Guthrie has made at least 30 starts and pitched at least 200 innings each of the last three seasons. In 2011, he went 9-17 with 130 strikeouts, a 4.33 earned run average and 1.34 walks-and-hits-per-innings-pitched rate in 208 innings. The 32-year-old right-hander is also hardened to the pressure of pitching in the AL East, even if his numbers aren't spectacular.

He earned $5.75 million last year, is third-year arbitration eligible and can become a free agent after the 2012 season. 

According to Ghiroli, the Rockies and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have shown interest so far. If Guthrie is still an Oriole next July, expect the Orioles to make another attempt to move him, probably to shore up their bullpen.

The Red Sox, with a gaggle of bullpen arms, could match up well in this possible trade.