NFL Week 15 Thursday Night Football: 5 Hot Tips for the Big Game

While much of 2011 could be described as a "learning experience" for the Jacksonville Jaguars, the same cannot be said for the Atlanta Falcons who, once again, have proved their class and sit at 8-5 heading into Week 15.

Behind the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South, the Falcons still have a chance to take a wild-card spot and head to the playoffs. With the Detroit Lions to face a desperate Oakland Raiders team at home, the Falcons could take a huge step towards the playoffs by winning this one.

Last week, the Falcons staged one of the franchise's most important victories ever: rallying from 16 points down at halftime on the road to defeat the Carolina Panthers 31-23. Matt Ryan had a game to remember as he threw for 318 yards and a career high four touchdowns.

For Jacksonville, it was all Maurice Jones-Drew, as he scored four touchdowns to set the franchise record for the most touchdowns and handed the Jags a big win in the process. Down 14-0, Jacksonville ended up winning 41-14, marking the first time Jacksonville had scored more than 20 points all year.

So whether you're a Jacksonville or Atlanta fan, someone just interested in the football, or somebody out to make a few easy bucks, here's five tips for the game come Thursday night.

1. Head-to-head

Blaine Gabbert is statistically the worst quarterback in the league and he holds the reigns of the worst passing team in the league. Averaging 140.8 yards per game and completing just 50.8 percent for the year, Jacksonville has certainly had its struggles offensively.

And if you're going to be relying on the run as much as the Jags will be going into this one, it's best not to try do it against the Falcons who are currently allowing less than 100 yards rushing per game and less than four yards per carry.

Offensively, the Falcons are not complete, but with Matt Ryan playing as well as he currently is, the Falcons—at home—should be far too strong for the Jaguars in this one.

Tip: Atlanta Falcons to win

2. Spread

The 27-point victory by the Jaguars was more of a reflection on the inability of Tampa Bay rather than a demonstration of Jacksonville's prowess. Gabbert is not a quality quarterback and no matter how much time he has in the pocket, he is simply unable to make quality throws.

Compare that to seasoned veteran Ryan who, as we've discussed, is playing pretty well and while the Falcons are not setting the world on fire, Atlanta is moving in the right direction come the new year.

If they hadn't given up such a large lead to the Panthers, the Falcons would have ended up winning that game by a lot more than they did. Even so, they still managed to cover the spread and should be a safe option to do so again.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons to cover the spread

3. Total points

With both teams recording victories in high-scoring games last week, it's easy to jump on the bandwagon for the over. On face value, this is not a bad play, but you've got to be careful when considering both of these teams.

After they beat Baltimore, many people around the league were lauding the defense of Jacksonville. They're still ranked in the top four in passing defense—allowing less than 200 yards per game and only 16 touchdowns for the year for 19.4 points per game.

The Atlanta defense has only allowed 20.5 points per game also—a number they will be looking at bettering against a struggling Jacksonville offense averaging less than 15 points per game.

With Atlanta looking to play mistake-free football and get into a good groove heading into the playoffs, I think they'll be solid without setting the world ablaze offensively.

Ryan will get the job done: complete around 70 percent of his passes for two touchdowns and the total points line might just be a little higher than expected. I'd take anything under about 45; anything less than that—take the over.

Prediction: Under total points for the game (under to about 45 points)

4. First scoring play

As mentioned, the Jacksonville defensive unit is strong enough to contain most offensive units that are middle of the road, like Atlanta. Despite over 20 carries, Michael Turner couldn't manage more than 75 yards for the game and if they're going to be moving the chains, the Falcons need to get the running game going.

Jacksonville tends to start games slowly in terms of offense and Gabbert doesn't tend to get hot up either, so it could be a bit of a slow game early—helping the under total points some more.

I always like field goals for a bit of value and with the better offense, expect Ryan to get the Falcons into good field position early and expect the Jaguar defense to hold on and force the kicker to come out.

Prediction: Atlanta field goal as the first scoring play

5. First touchdown scorer

As I've said, the Jacksonville offense under the guidance of Gabbert has left a lot to be desired this year, and without Jones-Drew, they really do struggle for points. As great defenders of the run however, expect the Falcons defense to be ready early for Jones-Drew and I just can't see Jacksonville scoring first.

Which leaves us with Atlanta. In goal line situations, I always tend to favor those running the football, but with the lacklustre performance Turner put in against the Panthers—a team ranked 26th in run defense—I'm looking for a receiver for Matt Ryan.

Julio Jones was a go-to-guy in last week's heroic win, catching two touchdowns in the final quarter to take the win for the Falcons and with Ryan throwing well, expect him to look for the rookie again early in this one.

Prediction: Julio Jones as the first touchdown scorer