Welcome to Week 14. I'm labeling this Upset Weekend. There are several games on the slate that will make Vegas look ridiculous.
Teams that have been sliding will finally place their feet on the sand and stand up tall, while other teams that have been forgotten will be noticed.
At the end of this slideshow, you may want to throw a flag on me for taunting (just like Aaron Rodgers should've gotten in the picture above), but by the end of Week 14, I'll make you a believer.
Unlike Rodgers, who delayed the snap to show off his guns, you need to click below to start the predictions.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have won the past seven games in a row against the Cleveland Browns at home. When the Browns come to Heinz Field, they stink up the joint.
In fact, the Browns usually tuck-tail when they play the Steelers; they've lost the past 14 of 15 games when the two teams have met on any field.
Add in the fact that Browns quarterback Colt McCoy is 0-7 in against division foes, and you see why Vegas has the Browns as 14-point underdogs.
Vegas has it all wrong.
The Browns have quietly secured the top spot in the NFL against the pass, which is the Steelers' strong suit. Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall has eclipsed 20 rushing attempts only once this season.
Even when the Steelers run the ball, it's not very effective. Offensive coordinator Bruce Arians recognizes the running game as a weakness and wants to improve it.
Arians can want to improve it all he wants, but Mendenhall is a plodding runner who won't be able to break free of D'Qwell Jackson's defense.
In a field goal battle, Pittsburgh loses: Browns 17, Steelers 16
Yes, I did label this Upset Weekend, but let's not get crazy here. The Colts are looking for their first win of the season, and after Sunday, they'll still be looking.
Despite Dan Orlovsky's recent success in the passing game, the Colts will fall to their old friend, the Ravens. Both of Orlovsky's touchdowns came at the end of the fourth quarter with 2:12 remaining in the game. They were garbage touchdowns against an equally garbage Patriots secondary.
The Ravens don't have such a sorry secondary. They rank fifth against the pass and will make Orlovsky look like Orlovsky.
And when the Colts turn to their run game...er, wait, they don't have one. Nevermind.
Colts 6, Ravens 27
There's something about Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. When he's playing away and outside, he's not that good. Omitting the BCS hopeful Colts, when Ryan has played away from Atlanta and outdoors, he has a 2:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in three games.
Those three games were against Chicago, Tampa Bay and Seattle. Chicago ranks 28th against the pass, Tampa is 27th and Seattle is ranked 20th. Not exactly tough matchups.
When the Falcons travel to Bank of America Stadium, Ryan will slip into his homesick ways and throw up a stinker. The 4-8 Panthers will topple the 7-5 Falcons in the Cam Newton Show.
Falcons 17, Panthers 31
The Cincinnati Bengals host the Houston Texans this Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium. Excuse me. I got that wrong. Let me try again.
The Cincinnati Bengals host the Arian Fosters this Sunday at Paul Brown Stadium.
With the injuries that have beset the Texans, the team is left with Foster as their first, second and third option on offense. While third-stringer quarterback T.J. Yates has looked promising, he's no Matt Schaub. And Andre Johnson isn't even Andre Johnson with his two bum hammies.
The Bengals have been effective in stopping the run (sixth) this season and will put Foster over their collective knee this week.
Texans 17, Bengals 20
Here's a few stats for you: Over the previous seven weeks, quarterbacks facing the Vikings secondary are completing 71.2 percent of their passes, have thrown for 8.82 yards per attempt and have a collective 18 touchdowns.
What's more impressive—or more depressing, depending on if you're a Vikings fan—is that not a single one of those quarterbacks has thrown an interception over that seven-week period.
Picture Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson on the field with that Vikings defense. That little smile that just came across your face will be the same smile that is slapped on every Detroit Lions player at the end of regulation on Sunday.
Well, except for the ones that get thrown out of the game for stomping on someone, or throwing the ball at someone, or pushing a ref or [fill in the blank with any stupid penalty you can think of here].
Oh yeah, Adrian Peterson is not expected to play. This just gets worse and worse.
Vikings 14, Lions 34
I just threw up a little bit in my mouth when I looked at this matchup. It's horrible on both sides. These two teams are fighting to see which one is worse. If anyone is watching this game—in the stadium or on television—it must be part of a sick and twisted torture plan.
Vegas has placed the glorious "PK" next to this one—they won't even touch the sorriness that will plague EverBank Field.
What you can expect to see is horrible quarterback play and two tiny battering rams for running backs trying to break free for a touchdown. The only question is which running back will be more effective.
Answer: LeGarrette Blount 24, Maurice Jones-Drew 27
Vegas has the Philadelphia Eagles as three-point underdogs in their away game against the Miami Dolphins. I happen to agree.
The preseason Dream Team is still sleeping. Whether it's their smallish, ineffective linebackers or a pouting wide receiver whose bottom lip is collecting gravel it's hanging so low, this team is in the tank.
The Dolphins are led by an underestimated Matt Moore. He'll connect with Brandon Marshall for at least one score. And even the smallish Reggie Bush will find room to run against an inept Philly "defense."
While the word around the campfire is that Michael Vick will start for the Eagles, chances are he doesn't finish the game. His play style lends himself to injury, and so does playing against Cameron Wake. He'll be a non-factor in this matchup.
Eagles 20, Dolphins 26
You see the way Chiefs cornerback Brandon Flowers is mugging Steelers wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery? He's going to do the same to the Jets wideouts.
And that flash-in-the-pan performance by Jets running back Shonn Greene last week (three rushing touchdowns) is going to be non-existent against the Chiefs. He'll regress back to his normal, pathetic self on Sunday.
Jets quarterback will inexplicably ignore his best asset—tight end Dustin Kellerand Flowers will make him pay for zeroing in on his wideouts.
It's like I already watched this one.
Chiefs new quarterback Kyle Orton may start in this game, which would give Kansas City a needed boost on offense. They rank 30th in points scored in the league.
Nevertheless, the Chiefs will win this one in a defensive battle.
Chiefs 19, Jets 17
There are only five teams giving up less points than the Tennessee Titans. While the Titans have struggled to put up points this season—read: Chris Johnson—they have kept opposing teams off the board as well.
While keeping Drew Brees off the board will be a feat no less difficult than convincing your significant other to let you go to Hooters to watch games all Sunday, the Titans will provide great resistance, similar to your significant other.
Titans running back Chris Johnson will also help Tennessee's cause against the Saints. He has found his groove and, over the past four games, he's averaging 4.6 yards per carry. What's more important is that he's starting to lose defenders in the open-field.
Johnson will lose the Saints defenders, and in turn, the Saints will lose the game.
Saints 28, Titans 35
I watched the New England Patriots make Dan Orlovsky look like a quarterback. No really. I saw it. It's on tape if you don't believe me. And, the Colts put up 24 points on the Patriots.
While Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman isn't too many notches above the Orlovsky's of the league, he's shown much promise from time to time this season. Against the Orlovsky-loving Patriots this Sunday, Grossman will again show that promise.
Even though he'll be without the services of tight end Fred Davis, the Redskins will be able to move the ball through the air against New England. Rookie running back Roy Helu will also get it going against a weak Patriots defense. Helu has been turning it on lately and has the backing of his head coach.
When Tom Brady grips the rock, it will be against the ninth-ranked pass defense in the league. He won't be able to deliver a victory at FedEx Field.
Patriots 27, Redskins 31
You may not know the man pictured to the left. He's the guy that is going to stop San Francisco 49ers running back Frank Gore. That's Arizona Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton.
Horton has brought the Arizona defense far along this season. His efforts culminated into a heroic performance against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13. The Cardinals manhandled the Cowboys and surging offense. DeMarco Murray was held to 3.2 yards per carry, and Tony Romo was pressured into another dismal December performance.
When the 49ers visit the desert, the Cardinals will put on an encore performance. And with the way their season has taken form this year, it most likely will be in dramatic fourth quarter fashion. Between the bogart Beanie Wells or the electrifying Patrick Peterson, the Cardinals will put solid points on the board.
While the 49ers have already won the war (the division), the Cardinals will win the battle on Sunday.
49ers 13, Cardinals 21
The Denver Broncos will have to put together a defensive game plan. I'm not exactly sure what it will be. Usually, a defensive coordinator has to look to stop someone on offense. With the Chicago Bears, there's not much to stop. Jay Cutler and Matt Forte are injured and won't suit up for this one, or maybe at all the rest of the season.
That leaves Roy Williams and Devin Hester on offense. No, not Marion Barber. He's only effective from five yards out—somewhere the Bears won't be for a long time.
Vegas has the Bears as 3.5 point underdogs. That's .5 more points than the Bears scored against Kansas City last week.
Bears 6, Broncos 24
Yes! I did it. I analyzed a Broncos game without mentioning Tim Tebow. Oh, shoot. There he goes.
For as good as the Green Bay Packers are at passing the rock, they are just as bad at defending the pass. They rank 31st in the league against the pass and in total yards given up each week. Even though that stat hasn't kept them from winning every game this year, this factor will: Pro-Bowl cornerback Charles Woodson is expected to sit out due to a concussion.
Thanks to the late Al Davis, the Oakland Raiders have the speediest wide receivers in the league. Quarterback Carson Palmer will look to exploit the leaky secondary with several shots down field. With a solid offensive line, Palmer has a legitimate chance to connect on several of those throws.
Oakland running back Michael Bush also has a chance for success on the ground. The Pack is surrendering 105.1 yards on the ground this year. And while Bush struggled last week against the Dolphins fifth-ranked run defense (18 yards on 10 carries), he should find more room to run against a weaker Packers run defense.
Sure, Aaron Rodgers will get his. He always does. But the Raiders will get theirs too.
Raiders 34, Packers 28
Teams have put up points on the San Diego Chargers. They are averaging more than three touchdowns per game against the Chargers. When the Buffalo Bills land in San Diego, they are bringing with them an offense that can put at least that many touchdowns on the board.
Without the services of running back Fred Jackson, the Bills have struggled. They have relied upon Ryan Fitzpatrick's arm and have settled as a middle-of-the-road team after looking convincing earlier in the year. They will return to a convincing team in San Diego and get the passing attack going against a blah Chargers team.
The Bills defense has been typical: bad. Teams can take their pick, either run or throw against them—some choose both. Quarterback Philip Rivers has struggled from time-to-time this season, and despite a solid performance in Week 13, he'll revert back to his hapless self.
It is believed that Rivers is playing with an undisclosed injury and that's what has caused the Chargers offense to struggle. Either way, Rivers will fail to lead the Chargers to a home victory against the Bills. The Bills five-game slide ends in San Diego.
Bills 35, Chargers 24
This game will be the game to watch this Sunday. Not just because it's on Sunday Night Football, but because it will be a thrilling game between two explosive teams.
If this game can come down to one guy, it would be Cowboys fullback Tony Fiammetta. Fiammetta has been instrumental in running back DeMarco Murray's wild success. With Fiammetta playing, Murray has charged for 601 yards on 75 carries (8.01 YPC). Since Fiammetta has been out with an inner ear problem, Murray has tip-toed for 198 yards on 59 carries, good for an average of 3.36 yards per carry.
Fiammetta = swagger. Guess who gets his swagger back?
The Cowboys will also get wide receiver Miles Austin back for this matchup as well. With Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten catching passes from Tony Romo, the Giants secondary will be the cause of their loss. The Giants are ranked 29th against the pass and may slip to dead last in the league after Sunday night.
Giants 34, Cowboys 42
One question: Who scheduled the St. Louis Rams versus the Seattle Seahawks for a Monday Night Football game? And are they still working for the NFL? It's time to check bank accounts; someone got paid to put this one on Monday night.
That said, what we can expect is the Beast Mode show. Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch will look to decimate the thing that St. Louis calls a run defense. No other team gives up more rushing yards than the Rams. Lynch is going to bust through their paper mache line and linebackers at will.
Five bucks if you know who Tom Brandstater is without using Google. Give up?
He's going to be the starting quarterback for the St. Louis Rams when they travel to Seattle's CenturyLink Field. Enough said.
Rams 10, Seahawks 24