MLB Free Agents 2012: 7 Contract Clauses to Convince Jimmy Rollins to Stay

Despite reports that meetings between the Philadelphia Phillies and Jimmy Rollins' agent have not gone well, I believe it is only a matter of time before Jimmy Rollins is back in the fold. Even though there are not many serious competitors for his services, Rollins has significant leverage. His agent undoubtedly will use the Phillies' lack of reliable replacements in landing a good deal for his client.

While I still doubt he'll get five years guaranteed, I would not be surprised to see his agent out-negotiate Ruben Amaro. Seeing the deals Amaro's given out over the last few years, he's closer to Chumlee from Pawn Stars than Rick at the negotiating table. 

Even though Rollins has leverage, Amaro can and should be creative in signing a deal that doesn't hurt his club in the future. Whether or not he will use such devices is an entirely different question. 

Use Hanley Ramirez as Leverage

This isn't a clause, but Amaro should be looking for leverage that can realistically happen and not cause the team to miss a beat. Amaro seemingly has tried creating this with rumors of Aramis Ramirez, but if Rollins' representatives were smart, they would see right through the meager attempt.

First, there are too many pieces that need to fall in place. Amaro would have to trade Polanco, which may not be easy, sign Aramis and still sign a replacement.

A left side of the diamond featuring Aramis Ramirez and some combination of Wilson Valdez, Michael Martinez and Freddy Galvis does not make the team better. Yes, Aramis is much better offensively than Polanco but his significantly worse defense and baserunning help offset most of the offensive gains and at a significantly higher price tag.

Tack on the offensive downgrade from Rollins to Valdez-esque production, and it's not even close. The Phillies would have similar offensive production, but a significantly worse defense. 

But there's another option Amaro could use to create leverage. With the Miami Marlins signing Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez is forced to move from his position. It's no secret they want Pujols either.

So what if Amaro uses Domonic Brown as trade bait to take on a potentially unhappy Hanley Ramirez and the remaining three years, $46.5 million left on his contract? The Marlins free up more money for Pujols, while getting another talented, young, cheap player to start alongside Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton. 

A Cheaper Five-Year Deal

If Rollins is hell-bent on getting a five-year deal, let him get his wish but at a much smaller annual salary. He'd have to forget $13-15 million for three or four years but rather look at a salary closer to his last deal. A five-year, $50 million deal would not be a total burden. While he'll most likely be overpaid in his fourth and fifth year, his first few years should provide enough value to help offset it. 

Both Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs were in agreement with Rollins' contributions last year. The websites had him at 3.7 WAR and 3.8 WAR, respectively. For the sake of argument and simplicity, let's assume his skills deteriorate by 25 percent each year. That brings his upcoming five seasons at 2.85, 2.14, 1.60, 1.20 and 0.90 wins. Assuming that the price per win remains about $5 million, that brings his total value at just over $43 million.

contract would produce value in his first year or two, slight overpaying in year three, while overpaying more in the fourth and fifth years. 

That's a very crude and simplistic approach but still helps show the basic premise. However, I doubt Rollins would accept that much lower of an average annual salary. 

Front-Loaded Deal

This could be considered an offshoot from the previous slide. If Amaro doesn't feel comfortable paying a replacement-level Rollins in the future, he could give more money up front while giving less in the back end of the contract. 

By paying Rollins around $6-8 million in the last year or two, if he manages to be worth a win to the team, it will be almost break-even value, assuming the price per win inflates to $6 million by then. 

In addition, using a front-loaded contract should save a couple million off of the contract's total amount. More money at the beginning of the contract is more desirable for the player as he gets his money sooner and a dollar now is worth more than a dollar later.  

Three Years, Higher Salary

If Amaro offered Rollins a deal similar to what Derek Jeter got last year (3 years, $51 million), I doubt Rollins would turn it down. However, he isn't worth $17 million per year. With his 3.8 WAR, you could make an argument since it's close to break-even value-wise, but there is little chance he repeats that each year.

The most I would do for three years is $13 million per, and that's pushing it. 

Incentives

Incentives are common in contracts but can be very useful. Having high-dollar incentives definitively can motivate a player. Incentives can be for games played, All-Star selections, Gold Glove selections or OPS.

A much more optimistic incentive, which I'm sure every Phillies fan would love for Rollins to achieve, could be for World Series MVP.  

Incentive-Based Player Option

This ties back to the last slide and Derek Jeter's contract. In Jeter's contract, after his third year in 2013, he has a player option for just $8 million in 2014. However, as he reaches certain incentives in the three previous years, they get tacked on to the $8 million amount, up to $17 million.

A similar but cheaper structure could be a good idea for Rollins wanting a possible fourth- or fifth-year player option while still playing hard. 

Vesting Option

Apparently Ruben Amaro does know the concept of vesting options. In signing Jonathan Papelbon, Amaro used a vesting option for the fourth year, which becomes guaranteed if Papelbon finishes 55 games in 2015 or 100 games in 2014 and 2015. Given Rollins' injury history the past couple of seasons, a vesting option could be useful for a fourth or fifth year. 

However, such an option can come back to bite you. Even though a player may meet a minimum-games threshold, it doesn't always mean he's worth the price tag of another year. For example, if Rollins plays a full season in the third year and clinches a vesting option for a fourth year, but hits .240/.295/.380, that option doesn't look too good. 

My Thoughts

There's not much the Phillies can do other than pay Rollins. It's a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario. On one hand, I hate overpaying and giving multiple years for a declining player on a team loaded with players past their prime. On the other hand, a playoff-contending team absolutely cannot go into the season expecting a combination of Galvis, Martinez and Valdez at shortstop. 

Personally, I'd go a different route. I mentioned earlier about trading for Hanley Ramirez but I would also look into Red Sox shortstop Jed Lowrie. 

Lowrie is in his prime at 27 years old, a decent fielder at three positions (shortstop, second base and third base) and has good plate control. In 143 games the past two years, he's accumulated just over two wins above replacement.

In addition to Lowrie, the Phillies could sign a stopgap like Rafael Furcal to play shortstop along with Lowrie. This gives Furcal time to rest while being able to use Lowrie's flexibility to spell Polanco and Utley on occasion. With Lowrie, this also makes Wilson Valdez and Michael Martinez totally expendable. 

After 2012, the Phillies would have more options in free agency. With Polanco's contract up, Amaro can look at both third basemen and shortstops rather than being limited with one or two viable candidates at a sole position. Among options next offseason would include David Wright, Kevin Youkilis, Maicer Izturis, Erick Aybar and possibly Stephen Drew. 

If Amaro wants to get more creative, using a shortstop like Lowrie or a veteran like Furcal for a couple years would give time developing a top-notch young shortstop. The problem is, their highest-ceiling shortstop prospects were drafted this past summer and are more than a few years from ready. This leaves trading for a top shortstop prospect. There are two who have separated themselves from the pack—Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado. 

Neither one would come cheap. In order to attain one of them, Cole Hamels would have to be included. And if you trade Hamels, you need to sign another decent starter to fill his place while some of the Phillies' young arms develop. Bringing back Roy Oswalt, signing Edwin Jackson or Hiroki Kuroda, or trading for Wandy Rodriguez could all be options.