Free NFL Picks Week 7: Finding Easy Covers from Detroit to London
The Chicago Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers go across the pond, the Green Bay Packers get to tune up a rookie quarterback in Minnesota and the Detroit Lions try to rebound against the Atlanta Falcons.
Those games are on the card, plus an underdog shocker and my NFC intra-division game of the month.
I'm not even sure what that last part means, but if the touts who charge you money for picks say things of that nature, why can't I?
But before I unveil the picks, allow me to brag about an incredible week.
I put $500 in the online account, went 4-0-1 and turned a $270 profit. If that's not enough extra cash in your pocket, increase the values of everything. And if it's too rich for your blood, back off.
Either way I was clutch and pulled a profit.
I won with the Cowboys, Bucs, Falcons and Jets and pushed with the Giants.
Even more impressive was my call in the Falcons game. I said Atlanta would beat Carolina 31-17 and it happened. Why even play the games at this point?
I also said the Jets and Dolphins would score an abysmal 30 points when offenses are setting records all over the place.
And I even said the Bucs would win outright over the Saints.
So why is there so much bragging?
Because I know it can all fall apart quicker than you blink. It's best to stay at an even keel, but I'm letting my emotions get the best of me because it's hard to imagine that I duplicate this effort in Week 7.
But if I do, you better believe the chest is going to puff out.
The pot currently sits at $770. All lines are taken from Sportsbetting.
Detroit Lions -3.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Put the Atlanta Falcons defense on the field against a dynamic passing offense and they struggle.
Teams such as Philadelphia, Green Bay and Carolina have out-gained the Falcons statistically, and they were getting it done with the passing game.
The Falcons were able to win two of those games, but all three were at home.
What's going to happen if the Falcons get torched through the air in Detroit?
Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford should light up the Falcons secondary and cause the Falcons to abandon the run and become a predictable offense.
Look at last week's game between the Lions and 49ers. San Francisco was able to run for 203 yards, and it allowed Alex Smith to somehow win despite going 17-for-32 for 125 yards.
The Falcons do have Michael Turner, but Atlanta forgets about him as soon as they find themselves in a hole.
Detroit puts Atlanta in that hole early and they bury the Falcons' season in the process.
Detroit 27, Atlanta 17
Risking $110 to win $100. Pot Remaining $660.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 vs. Chicago Bears
Chicago beats an awful Minnesota team and now people are believers in the Bears?
I'm not buying it.
In one week, the Bears suddenly figured out a way to protect Jay Cutler?
Again, not buying it.
On top of it all, I'm taking Tampa Bay because of the turf. Yes, I'm putting a $110 on the line because I genuinely think the turf at Wembley Stadium is going to hurt the Bears, more specifically Matt Forte.
It seems like every year NFL teams complain about the turf at Wembley Stadium, and I'm going to make money on it.
If you were able to watch the Bears and Vikings play on Sunday night, you saw and heard about Forte's running style. He jump-cuts, then accelerates through an opening along the line. Try doing that on a wet, slippery surface. It's not going to happen.
And when the Bears running game can't move the ball, Tampa Bay's defense is going to tee off on Cutler, who not only lacks sufficient protection from his o-line, but also holds onto the ball too long.
What about Tampa's running game, you ask?
Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay's running back, is much different runner. He runs straight ahead and takes what he can get, even if it's not much. Picking up every yard will be key instead of trying to break off a big run because field position is paramount in a low-scoring game.
Tampa Bay 16, Chicago 10
Risking $110 to win $100. Pot Remaining $550.
Green Bay -9 @ Minnesota
I'd play this game if it were Green Bay -29.
This game might be worrisome if the Packers were looking ahead to a huge game next week. They may catch themselves looking ahead to the bye week, but I don't think it's enough to cause a mental lapse in this spot.
Minnesota is going to send rookie Christian Ponder out there and pray he can figure out a way to read Clay Matthews and the Packers defense.
Adrian Peterson will take some of the pressure off but not enough to cover up the mistakes of a quarterback who was benched repeatedly while playing against the ACC with Florida State.
Here's a prop for you: Ponder's turnovers vs. touchdown passes.
I'd take the turnovers.
Get this line before it climbs close to 13. Actually, it won't matter.
Green Bay 43, Minnesota 13
Risking $110 to win $100. Pot Remaining $440.
New York Jets +2.5 vs. San Diego
I'm still waiting for San Diego to hit a bump in the road before going on a run to win the Super Bowl.
A trip to the east coast for a 1:00 p.m. game is the perfect time for a slipup.
It's not like the Chargers have been setting the world on fire either. They struggled to beat the Vikings by seven at home. They tried to cough up a comfortable lead against the Chiefs at home before they finally won by three. And they did the same thing against Denver on the road.
Backing the Jets and Mark Sanchez is not the best idea in gambling history, so it's wise to tread lightly.
Sometimes you have to ignore the team you are backing and look at the play as a chance to fade the other team.
Let's not go Chargers.
New York Jets 20, San Diego 17
Risking $55 to win $50. Pot Remaining $390
Carolina Panthers -2.5 vs. Washington Redskins
I don't care if it's John Beck or Rex Grossman. For all I'm concerned they're the same guy wearing two different numbers.
By the end of this game, the Redskins will be divided by who they support as quarterback and will wish they didn't win those other three games, because it will have hurt their chances of landing Andrew Luck in next year's draft.
You can almost forget about all of the matchups and think about the line for a minute. A 1-5 team is favored against a 3-2 team sitting second place in their division.
If that doesn't tell you how bad the 3-2 team is, nothing will.
Don't overthink this thing.
Carolina 23, Washington 13
Risking $330 to win $300. Pot Remaining $60