Midseason Rankings of the Top Draft-Eligible QBs

The list of quarterbacks that are eligible for the 2012 NFL Draft is long and loaded with talent. I would personally opine that the talent pool is not only greater at the top—Matt Barkley and Andrew Luck, in whatever order you prefer—but exceptionally deep as well. 

It includes a couple of older gun-slingers like Case Keenum of Houston and Brandon Weeden of Oklahoma State. It also includes a couple of juniors—one a redshirt, the other a true junior—both of whom are seen as top-five picks. 

And neither of them are guaranteed locks to enter the draft-—though it's hard to conjure up a situation that could bring Andrew Luck back to Stanford for a fifth overall year. 

But you probably already knew all of this. In fact, I am not attempting to tell you anything you likely don't already know. 

Instead, my goal in comprising my midseason rankings is to shed some light on some of the quarterbacks I've been especially impressed with both halfway through this year and throughout their entire collegiate careers. 

1. Matt Barkley, True Junior, Southern California

First and foremost, I must state that placing Matt Barkley ahead of Andrew Luck is no indictment of my opinion of the Stanford QB. It is a positive statement of the potential I see in Matt Barkley. 

Every personnel department is left with that question on any player: Do we go for the guy who has been more productive, or the one with more potential? 

Normally, I would say the one who has been more productive since at least that way you face good odds of not getting an underachiever. In Barkley's case, you have a guy who has been super productive, has all the prototypes in terms of size, mechanics, arm strength, accuracy, toughness, and intelligence, and more than any other quarterback I've ever scouted the sky truly is the limit. 

Barkley throws accurately to all levels of the field, against every kind of coverage, in every kind of situation—including against pressure—and "can make every NFL throw."

What impresses me the most about Barkley is the likelihood of him returning to USC next year—not because he's afraid of Andrew Luck or wants to be guaranteed the No. 1 spot—but because he wants to win a national championship. He is a true leader. 

Finally, something that often gets little play is the coaching situation for the player's college team. At Southern Cal, Barkley is being coached by arguably one of the finest QB Coaches in all of football (yes I'm referring to Lane Kiffin).

To continue to develop under Kiffin and receive three years of such quality coaching would put Barkley in a position to not only go No.1 in the 2013 draft, but would give him a chance to start from day one in the NFL, and play extremely well. 

2. Andrew Luck, Redshirt Junior, Stanford

As I said in the previous slide, I think Andrew Luck is a great college QB. I think he will be a very good pro. But that very phrase—very good—is not the same as great. I believe Barkley will be great, Luck very good.

The difference in my mind would be between the great Drew Brees and the very good Matt Ryan. Both are excellent QBs, but one seems headed for the Hall of Fame, the other could be the best QB in the history of his franchise but still not a Hall of Famer (granted Ryan is still very young and could develop into that of course). 

My point is that Luck's upside and career trajectory is probably more Matt Ryan than Drew Brees. 

Obviously Luck is very intelligent, a great leader, can make any and every throw, and possesses wonderful athleticism for the position. 

My only issues for Luck are an awkward release (though if a guy is accurate that never bothers me much) and whether Luck can play in an offense that revolves around him throwing the ball. He may never have to, but in going to the team with the first pick in the draft (I'm assuming that he will be regardless of Barkley's decision) he will likely be that team's top offensive player from day one. 

If he answers those two questions in his NFL career than I have little doubt he'll be a really good NFL quarterback. 

3. Nick Foles, Senior, Arizona

A couple issues to get out the way immediately: First, the third spot is where for most there starts to be some debate, though at this point I doubt many have Foles here. Second, before you assume I only know of Pac-12 QBs, please read past this slide, as I only have one other Pac-12 QB listed (out of 10). 

Onto Foles, and there is a ton to like about him. His size is comparable to Ben Roethlisberger (and he actually plays a lot like Big Ben); he is wholly accurate on short, intermediate, and longer throws; his coaches have called him a gym rat and said nobody watches more film than he; he's managed to maintain his composure amidst a difficult year this season for Arizona (one which led to the head coach being canned on Monday). 

One could blame Foles, and there may be something to that argument, but it seems to me Foles has been as good as he could possibly be given the overall lack of talent around him and a very unsteady coaching situation. 

Heck, if it weren't for Foles who's to say how bad Arizona's season would look (yes I know they've only won one game, but those blowouts might have been astronomically worse). 

Against Matt Barkley and USC a few weeks ago, Foles threw for over 400 yards and nearly led his team to a comeback victory that would have been amazing considering the type of day Barkley had. Foles was the entire reason Arizona was even kind of sort of in that game. 

If that isn't leadership I'm not sure what does qualify. 

4. Tyler Wilson, Redshirt Junior, Arkansas

Few quarterbacks, draft-eligible or otherwise, have as much talent as Tyler Wilson. Of course, few have as little playing experience either. 

Wilson has started every game this year, but prior to this season, his most extensive action was a relief appearance last season against eventual national champion Auburn, where he filled in quite admirably for third round draft pick Ryan Mallett. 

But since taking the reigns of the offense for good, Wilson hasn't looked back and has been a star. His 65 percent completion percentage isn't elite, but his arm, ability to make the big throw, size, competitiveness, and eventually the fact he's being coached by Bobby Petrino all will make him a very appealing prospect either this draft or more likely in 2013. 

Wilson has a lot of experience to gain, which will only make him that much better. Once that experience is gained I have little doubt Wilson can grow into a fine NFL QB. 

5. Robert Griffin III, Junior, Baylor

Robert Griffin III from Baylor came into this season an excellent college QB, but not much of a draft prospect, at least not at that position. 

This season, Griffin has been the most accurate passer in the entire country—something even conservative scouts such as myself must take notice of. That a player could go four games with fewer incompletions than touchdown passes proves this kid has something special.

Of course everyone knows Griffin has tremendous athleticism. Few knew he could be so efficient in the passing game. 

For Griffin, he may actually be best suited to come out early—something I would almost never say of a quarterback. Two reasons: First, running the spread offense he's more likely to get hurt. And second, the sooner he can begin learning the intricacies of an NFL offense, the sooner he can start contributing. If he waits another year, there's almost no way he will be playing in the NFL until 2015. 

6. Landry Jones, Senior, Oklahoma

Most people have Landry Jones rated much higher than sixth. In all honesty, as I was preparing this list he completely escaped my mind. 

Doesn't that in and of itself prove everything? Jones is just not a sexy QB. One could say neither is Nick Foles, who I have rated three spots higher. The difference is that Foles is doing something rather amazing in Arizona where he's not coming from a proven system—remember OU just produced a No. 1 overall pick at the position two drafts ago—and Foles lacks the talent that Jones has around him. 

I'm not saying Jones isn't talented, but the odds are stacked against Jones in my mind due to the overall difficult transition that college spread offenses present for QBs to the NFL. Obviously there have been a few guys have done it fluidly, but it is pretty rare. 

There is nothing about Jones that sticks out when I watch OU which would tell me that Jones has an "it factor". I obviously could be wrong, but I see Landry Jones as being a lot closer to Jason White than Sam Bradford. 

7. Case Keenum, Super Senior, Houston

I recognize NFL scouts generally don't like the smaller QBs, who are coming off a major knee surgery, who are six years out of high school—as opposed to three or four for Barkley and Luck respectively— who play in a run-and-shoot offense, who play in lesser competition conferences—such as Conference USA. 

All that being said, few QBs are as good as Case Keenum. Few are as accurate, or tough, or smart, or have the requisite arm strength. Few come back from a major ACL injury less than a year after the injury took place. Few win anywhere close to the number of games that Keenum has. 

I am not saying Keenum will be an NFL star, or even guaranteeing that he'll make a team, but at this juncture of the draft process you can give me Keenum over any of the other QBs not named Barkley, Luck, or Foles and I would be perfectly happy. 

Granted, I was also a huge fan of Kevin Kolb, and that is at best still a work in progress. 

8. Brandon Weeden, Senior, Oklahoma State

Weeden is a gunslinger, an old guy by draft standards, and plays in the ultimate spread offense. 

But he has a great arm, is a mature person, wins, produces, and does so many of the things you want your quarterback to do at the NFL level. Weeden is probably low on upside, and figures to be a career backup. But if you can find one of those in the latter rounds, you could certainly do a lot worse in the draft. 

9. Ryan Tannehill, Senior, Texas A&M

I won't lie, part of the reason I have Tannehill below Weeden is their head-to-head matchup. Watching that game I was so impressed by Weeden's ability to comeback, while Tannehill's second-half struggles really concerned me. 

Yes, Tannehill is a good athlete for the position, and even a threat to make plays with his feet. This is due in part to his time as a collegiate wide receiver. But Tannehill is now a QB, and for me that's a problem. 

Tannehill has not even been the A&M full-time starter for a full campaign. He is raw and inexperienced at the position. If Tannehill had another year to develop under Mike Sherman, I would give Tannehill a much higher grade and ceiling overall. 

To me he is Jake Locker, without all the experience and production. That has to drop him at least a round or two, doesn't it?

10. Brock Osweiler, Senior, Arizona State

Coming into this season, few people had even heard of Brock Osweiler. Now, he's slightly better known. Osweiler is still kind of that odd ball you don't know what to do with as a draft prospect. 

He's relatively inexperienced, 6'8" (which is just a little too tall for a quarterback), and hasn't been super productive while playing in an odd version of the spread offense at ASU. But this season Osweiler has shown superior athleticism and leadership in getting the Sun Devils a 4-1 record. 

Osweiler has shown an ability to make NFL throws, make a few things happen with his feet, and relatively decent pocket presence/mobility. 

Brock at this point is a guy with a lot of upside that will likely be taken low in the draft—and because of size and lack of experience reminds me a lot of Panthers QB Tony Pike, who also came from an odd version of the spread offense. 

11. Ryan Lindley, Senior, San Diego State University

Coming into 2011, Ryan Lindley was thought by many to be headed for the third round of the NFL Draft. Through the first half of his senior season, it's hard to imagine Lindley being drafted before the sixth round. 

Lindley's problems have been accuracy, poise, and poor decision-making. The frustrating thing (as an Aztec fan and someone scouting Lindley) is that occasionally he shows glimpses of pure beauty. His ability to make that deep out-throw to the opposite sideline is NFL-worthy. And his deep ball is as good as anyone's anywhere. 

The talent is great but there are just so many variables that just like Osweiler and Tannehill, one must feel that he's a boom or bust selection. Thus, it is most wise to simply reduce the risk and wait on these guys.