2012 MLB Free Agency: Most Likely Destinations for Jimmy Rollins

Jimmy Rollins has been an All-Star, MVP and World Series champion throughout his career in Philadelphia, but, for the first time, J-Roll faces free agency. Rollins himself, at a press conference held in the days following the Phillies' stunning playoff exit, stated that he is seeking at least a five-year deal from whatever team is looking to sign him.

While he later admitted that, for the right price, he would consider a four-year deal with a player option for the fifth year, this is an interesting development as it requires whoever intends to sign Rollins to commit long-term to the aging shortstop.

At 32, Rollins has already shown some signs of slowing down and one must not forget that he spent his first few years in the big leagues playing on the notorious Veterans Stadium turf. His $8.5 million salary last season was in the top 10 for shortstops, and one must expect that, based on his postseason performance especially, Rollins will seek considerably more than the $7 million a year average he was awarded with his last contract.

The question is, should a team commit five years and more than $7 million a year to a 32-year-old shortstop who missed a 20-game stretch due to injury in 2011 and managed to play in just over half of his team's games in 2010?

Or should a team more strongly consider that Rollins is year in and year out one of the most productive shortstops in the game and is coming off a postseason series in which he hit almost .500, delivering clutch hits at a time when the rest of his team largely struggled?

It will be interesting to see if some team is willing to meet all of Rollins' demands in order to land the star shortstop, or if Rollins will realize that his best shot at another World Series lies in Philadelphia and give his only major league club a hometown discount.

The next few months will surely answer those questions.

Here are five teams that have the financial capabilities, need at shortstop, and winning attitude it will take to sign Rollins, in order of likelihood that Rollins will go there, lowest to highest.

Chicago Cubs: Will Epstein Look to Make an Immediate Splash?

Theo Epstein is the new Chicago Cubs GM, and it is likely he will want to make a quick splash in building a team in his likeness. Rollins is one of the biggest names available on the free agent market in 2011, and the Cubs certainly have the big market appeal Rollins is keen on.

However, the reasons the Cubs rank so low on this list are many. First, Starlin Castro showed some potential in his first season, and given Epstein's historically weak commitment to the position in Boston, it would be hard to imagine he ditches Castro without first giving him a chance to develop, saving money to spend elsewhere on the field.

Second, Rollins is not a perfect fit for Epstein, given the value he puts on On Base Percentage (OBP). Rollins, despite his role as the Phillies' leadoff hitter, a lineup spot that traditionally requires a high OBP, has never been among the league leaders in OBP.

In fact, in 2011, he finished .338, 78th in baseball and a number more traditionally attached to the names of power hitters.

The likelihood Rollins ends up in Chicago? Given that Epstein needs to make an immediate splash it gets pushed to about 10%, but it is certainly not the best fit given the history of both player and GM.

Boston Red Sox: Will the Team's New Management Look to Replace Lowrie?

Coincidentally, Epstein's old team, the Boston Red Sox, also make this short list. The Red Sox are in the midst of one of the most important offseasons in recent team history.

Fans are growing restless after Boston's epic late season collapse and shortstop has been an offensive black hole for much of the Epstein era. Jed Lowrie is a nice player, but fans in Boston demand nothing short of a championship and signing Rollins would certainly signal a commitment to winning.

Rollins is well-suited to playing in the high-profile spotlight of Fenway Park, given his experience in Philadelphia. Boston also will give him an opportunity to play for a championship year in and year out.

One obstacle is that Boston's new regime is a continuation of the old one and may share Epstein's undervaluation of the shortstop position.

Boston needs to make changes to placate their fan base, but it is tough to imagine Boston's new head men would deviate from Epstein's formula so wildly.

Likelihood of Rollins ending up there? 15 percent.

New York Mets: If You Can't Beat Him, Sign Him?

The Mets' current shortstop, Jose Reyes, is also about to hit the free-agent market and many in baseball circles consider Rollins to be the safer, more cost-effective move. If the Mets were to lose out on Reyes, or let him walk for that matter, nothing would be sweeter for New York fans than to swipe Rollins from Philadelphia.

New York is one of the few teams that has the financial resources to offer Rollins whatever he really wants. Given Reyes' inconsistent at best tenure in New York, and management's need to turn the ship around quickly, it is not too difficult to envision the Mets making a run at their longtime nemesis.

Having said that, while the opportunity is there, it would be tough to imagine Rollins dissing Philly for New York. Professional athletes are businessmen, however, and if the price is right, it would be hard to say no.

Chances Rollins lands in New York? If they keep Reyes, zero percent, but if they decide to cut ties with their mercurial superstar, 15 percent.

San Francisco Giants: Can They Entice Jimmy Rollins to Come Home?

The Giants' 2011 season was a disaster from the start. Not only did they fail to reach the playoffs just one year after winning the World Series, they finished near the bottom of the league in almost every offensive category. A proven commodity like Rollins coming to town just might wake Giants fans from the slumber this year's team lulled them into.

Rollins could target the Giants because he is a native of the Bay Area and a homecoming for the end of his career would be a great story. The Giants have nothing at the shortstop position currently (how does Orlando Cabrera continue to get jobs based on one season of play?), and they certainly have the financial capability to spend on a player of Rollins' ilk.

Look for the Giants to at least make a solid effort in recruiting Rollins home to the Bay Area.

Chances Rollins ends up in San Francisco? 20 percent.

Philadelphia Phillies: Home Is Where the Heart Is

The overwhelming favorite to sign Rollins has to be his home for the past 11 seasons, Philadelphia. In the end, the Phillies and Rollins are almost made for each other.

Rollins, as mentioned before, is not an OBP monster. The Phillies value power over averages, and Rollins has served them well for 11 years as the starting shortstop and leadoff hitter.

As much as Rollins has complained about them over the years, the fans in Philadelphia drive Rollins, and it is hard to imagine him leaving a town he helped rebuild into a baseball town over the last decade.

While it is possible that some other team will value Rollins highly and make a pitch that is hard to turn down, the most likely scenario is that the free agent market is not as hot as Rollins would like and his best situation ends up being to remain in Philly and seek to erase the bitter memory of 2011.

Chances Rollins stays in Philly? Given that I have assigned percentages elsewhere, math would hold me to say 40 percent, but in reality it much more likely than that. It is difficult to imagine any other team chasing down an aging star at a position that requires range and speed.

Rollins will more than likely remain in red and white pinstripes for the rest of his career.