What Should the Colts Do with the No. 1 Pick?

My friend Alex asked me this morning, "What would you do if you were the Colts, and you had the number one pick?" 

Man... that is a tough one. 

Of course, Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) is going to be the No. 1 overall pick.  After a lot of thinking, if I were the Colts, I'd have to pick Luck.  Sorry Peyton Manning, I know you need a lot of help, but I'd have to do it. Green Bay probably isn't sorry they did that to Favre, even though that pick was in the 20s. 

It might work out perfect for the Colts if they draft Luck.

Luck could sit behind Peyton for 2-3 years, and then take over.  I personally don't think Peyton is going to be productive for much longer.   But look at history... Joe Montana was great, but the 49ers had a chance to get Steve Young. 

Eventually, they were faced with a similar choice: Young or Montana?

The choice to go with Young over Montana extended the 49ers dynasty. Meanwhile, Montana went on to play somewhere else (KC), and he was still good a good player. That choice kept the 49ers on top of the football world for about 4-5 more years than they would've been with Montana. 

Look at the Packers. Same choice, Favre or Rodgers? The Pack went with Rodgers, and Favre went on to do okay with the Jets, then had a great season with Minnesota, and then was a train wreck that last season in Minnesota. 

The Packers, meanwhile, won the Super Bowl last season, and look primed to win a couple more before Rodgers is done.  Same thing will happen if the Colts pick Luck. They could pick up a few good players in the draft, be decent for about 2 more years with Manning, and then Manning will go somewhere else (Arizona, Miami, Minnesota, pick a team that could be decent but that might need a QB... maybe Philly because Vick won't stay healthy). 

At that point, Manning will keep some team (I'm saying Philly, because I know Mike Vick can't stay healthy) in the playoff hunt, while Luck goes on to piggyback his way to a couple of Super Bowls with the Colts. When you think about it like that, the choice gets pretty clear.

So the real question is, would you rather hold on to Peyton, give him some help, and try to max out a 2-3 year window where you're probably (best case) going to be a solid playoff team?  Or would you rather open up a new 10-12 year window where you could win a couple of Super Bowls? 

Ask Packers' fans.  I'm pretty sure they don't regret the choice they made.