Fantasy Football Week 6: 5 Players You Must Trade

It’s always great to have a tremendous preseason draft.

It’s even better when you snag a breakout star off the waivers in Week 2.

However, fantasy football championships are not won in the draft lobby nor five games into the season. No, fantasy football trophies are won through midseason transactions, proper preparing for late-season roster shifts and most of all, buying low and selling high.

There’s an art to BL/SH. For me, it’s broken down into two categories:

Timing

It's crucial to hit the timing just right on both sides. You need to sell when your player hits his peak value (or approaches it), as fantasy pretenders all seem to drop off a cliff when their value slips. Second, you need to hit that moment just right when your trade partner questions whether or not to even own his/her player. All owners go through that moment with nearly every player on their roster at least once.

Persuasion

There's an art to negotiating trades, especially BL/SH. It's all about projecting bounce-backs and downfalls to set up the trade and then hammering the trade partner with facts about how great your player is (when selling high) or how "unownable" a player is (when buying low). 

The following five players are perfect examples of selling high due to underlying statistics, on-field observations or schedule concerns. 

Fred Jackson (BUF)

Don’t get me wrong, Fred Jackson has been simply stellar this season. Ranked fourth among RBs in ESPN Standard Leagues right now, Jackson, who was drafted by many as a low-end No. 2 RB, has been one of the biggest steals so far this season.

However, based on recent performance Jackson looks to be in for a bit of regression over the coming weeks.

Take this weekend’s performance versus Philadelphia, one of the worst rush defenses in the league this year. Jackson went for 111 yards on 26 carries, a great box-score line, though a deeper look would show that Jackson benefited greatly from a few carries and was actually pretty mediocre on the day. Five of his rush attempts totaled 66 yards, meaning Jackson average just 2.14 yards per attempt on his remaining 21 carries.

Reminder: This was against the 30th-ranked rush defense.

All of Jackson's 100-yard rushing performances have come against defense ranked 20th or worse against the run.

Jackson is a talented, explosive RB but he's not this great. He's not a top-five fantasy RB, but chances are there is someone in your league that thinks he is.

Cash in.

Eric Decker (DEN)

Just as Eric Decker was starting to become Denver QB Kyle Orton’s go-to receiver, head coach John Fox made the call in Sunday’s loss to the San Diego Chargers to replace the veteran QB with fan-favorite Tim Tebow.

Under Orton, the dynamic Decker was a top-10 fantasy WR through the first four weeks, averaging more than nine targets per game and finishing in double-digit fantasy points week in and week out.

With the switch from Orton to Tebow, Decker’s role as the WR1 could be out the door—plus he’s already lost his duties as the primary kick returner.

When Tebow was named the starter in Week 15 last season, Brandon Lloyd, the Broncos’ most skilled WR, immediately became his favorite target. Over his final three games, Lloyd saw 28 balls sent his way, good for 14 catches and over 260 yards. If Sunday was any indication, Tebow is looking to get back on page one with his favorite WR, looking for Lloyd heavily down the stretch. Meanwhile, Decker got just two looks, both in the third quarter.

Decker is certainly talented and was a deep sleeper for many entering the season. However, rather than milking every drop of fantasy value out of him until he is rendered "unrosterable," owners should look to trade him, pronto. Someone in your league views him as a WR2/WR3. That's solid trade value, go find that owner.

Jacoby Jones (HOU)

Fantasy football owners went crazy over Jacoby Jones when WR1 Andre Johnson went down with down with an injury in Week 4. Talk about overblown hype.

So, what did we learn in Week 5? Jones is still not AJ-lite. Jones struggles to get open. Jones sucks. Wrap it all up and one could argue that Jacoby Jones posted the week's worst performance by a WR, period.

Houston QB Matt Schaub looked for Jones all game, targeting him 11 times, three of which were on third down. The only problem is Jones managed to pull down just one of the passes for a measly nine yards. Meanwhile, Schaub threw for 416 yards. 

After his struggles against a mediocre Raiders' pass defense in Week 5, I do not expect Schaub to return Jones' way so often next week. Try selling Jones to another owner simply on the fact that he was targeted so much this week—it's really your only selling point.

Victor Cruz (NYG)

Giants WR Victor Cruz has been one of the season’s biggest breakouts at wide receiver. Adding another huge game to his game log Sunday against the Seahawks, Cruz has slowly established himself as the Giants' No. 2 option alongside WR1 Hakeem Nicks, pushing WR Mario Manningham further to the side.

Cruz has a flair for the incredible, capable of acrobatic one-handed catches just like his remarkable 68-yard grab on Sunday. On the other hand, however, Cruz has also demonstrated his inexperience, and it's been costly. While SportsCenter will (and rightfully so) show Cruz’s play-of-the-year nomination on repeat, his overall impact extended far beyond just one catch (in the opposite direction).

On the game, Manning looked to Cruz a team-high 11 times, five times on third down. One fell incomplete and one went for the 68-yard score, while the other three passes were caught—and NOT converted. On third down, it’s the receiver’s job to put himself in position to get the yards and Cruz failed to thrice. One of the times, Cruz lost the football while extending for a first down, a crucial mistake late in the game that killed New York momentum. Just two drives later, with the Giants putting together a game-winning series and down by four, Cruz tipped a pass right into the arms of Brandon Browner, whose 94-yard pick-six sealed the game for Seattle.

Regardless, Cruz's role did expand Sunday, pulling down eight receptions for 161 yards while serving as Manning's primary target down the stretch. However, its the mistakes that have me worried about Cruz's fantasy value.

Unlike Eric Decker, Cruz is someone I would consider playing until he is irrelevant simply due to his sheer upside. Don't be shocked, however, if Cruz loses his job sooner rather than later as Manningham saw his workload increase again in his second game back from injury. Manningham has the ability to pounce at any glimpse of weakness from Cruz and for that reason, I'd look to move Cruz.

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)

Larry Fitzgerald is one of the top wide receivers in the NFL, bar none. Entering the season, I had lofty expectations to say the least. QB Kevin Kolb looked like a drastic improvement at QB and I figured his addition made Fitz a lock for a top-four finish at fantasy WR.

Five weeks into the season now, Fitzgerald has been good, but not elite. He’s been a consistent double-digit scorer week-to-week but he has not been that electric, matchup-winning performer owners have hoped for. As great of a talent he is, Fitzgerald has simply been unable to breakout and with the schedule that lies ahead, things are looking even more grim.

Following this week’s bye, Fitz squares off against four consecutive opponents ranked top 10 in defense against an opponent’s No. 1 WR (PIT: 10, BAL: three, STL: seven, PHI: five). Now is obviously not the ideal time to own Arizona’s top receiver.

So far this season, Fitzgerald has shown nothing to think he can’t be an elite WR, but Kolb has also shown no indication he can make Fitzgerald great. He makes costly mistakes and fails to utilize Fitzgerald on a week-in-week-out basis that owners expect from a fantasy WR1.

Sell Fitzgerald on his potential and on his real-life value. Fitzgerald has the makings to be one of the top WRs in the NFL for years to come but for now, his fantasy value is constricted by situation and schedule.