With the list of injuries adding up for the St. Louis Rams and the slow 0-4 start, many people believe that St. Louis will land the number one draft choice. Along with the belief that the Rams will be drafting first overall is the notion that Andrew Luck should be the selection.
Those predictions are outrageous and absurd.
The Rams already have their quarterback of the future in Sam Bradford. An organization isn't going to trade away their No. 1 overall selection from two seasons ago just to draft another quarterback.
The only time in recent memory that anything similar has happened was when JaMarcus Russell was released by the Oakland Raiders after three seasons.
Sam Bradford, unlike Andrew Luck, will have two seasons of experience under his belt by the time the NFL draft comes around. So far in his short career, Bradford has shown a lot of promise. Even in this season of turmoil where he has had little help, he has shown the talent that made him the No. 1 pick.
If there's one thing true about the NFL Draft, it's that there are no players locked for career success—especially at the quarterback position.
A general rule is that it takes three seasons for a player to be labeled a bust. Looking at the quarterbacks drafted from 2005-2008, there were 10 quarterbacks drafted, and five of them can be labeled busts. Alex Smith, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, and JaMarcus Russell were drafted in the top 10. Brady Quinn wasn't taken until the 22nd pick.
That clearly shows that it's risky business whenever you are drafting a quarterback in the first round, and especially when you are drafting in the top 10. So why take another chance on a quarterback when it appears that they've already landed a solid one? Even if Luck is being touted as the next great thing, there is no certainty in the NFL.
What Should St. Louis Do If They Land the No. 1 Pick?
What St. Louis should do if they land the top pick in the draft is trade it. They could gain a lot of value from a team that feels that they desperately need Andrew Luck.
If the Atlanta Falcons had to give up a first-round pick, second-round pick, fourth-round pick and a future first- and fourth-round pick to jump up to the sixth slot, then the Rams have a chance to make an even bigger deal.
For a team with a lot of needs, that makes the most sense.
The other route they could go is drafting a player that they feel is as close to a sure thing as possible. A player like Alshon Jeffery would be tempting, but considering the depth at receiver that this 2012 class has it seems like an unlikely move.
When you have a player with elite potential at quarterback already, there is no need to trash the project and start from scratch. A transition from Sam Bradford to Andrew Luck would only set the team back even further.
When healthy, St. Louis has a pretty talented squad and they could make a large improvement to the team by trading the possible No. 1 selection for more picks.
Luck to the Rams shouldn't even be considered.