Jose Reyes and the Philadelphia Phillies: What It Would Mean and How it Works

Throughout the history of the franchise, the Philadelphia Phillies have had many rivals. From the trans-state rivalry between the Pittsburgh Pirates to the more recent Atlanta Braves rivalry and even to the competition established between the Phils and San Francisco Giants, the Phillies have had a fair share of bitter enemies. But one foe the Phillies have picked a bone with since their creation in 1962 has been the New York Mets.

For decades (and now close to half a century) the Phillies and Mets have been the bitterest of rivals. It all really started when the Mets won the World Series in 1969 behind Tom Seaver and Nolan Ryan. Even since then, however, dating back to even 2007 when the Phils edged them out for their first NL East division title since their last playoff appearance in 1993, a rivalry has persisted between these two major-market teams.

And while many in the Big Apple tend to prefer the New York Yankees and their winning ways, the Mets still have a following, albeit one that shrinks with every new loss and every additional cheap act by owner Fred Wilpon. Heck, even their recent losing ways have been mentioned in Family Guy (and while it's somewhat cruel...who am I kidding, it's pretty funny). And yes, I promise that the linked clip is appropriate for all ages.

Moving on, the Phillies and Mets rivalry has been one persisting for nearly 50 years—and that rivalry could very well have a new factor if the Phillies do the unthinkable this offseason: sign free-agent shortstop Jose Reyes.

Reyes was the centerpiece of the Mets' offense this past season, claiming the NL batting title with a .337 average at the end of the season. While third baseman David Wright fought a stress fracture in his back, Reyes shone in his contract year, despite a few stints on the DL for him as well.

Thus, there is a possible (although slight) opening for Jose Reyes in Phillies pinstripes come Opening Day 2012.

But what must happen for this to occur? Let's take a look, shall we?

Letting Jimmy Rollins Go

See that face? It's the face of Jimmy Rollins, the longest-tenured Phillie on the roster and the MVP shortstop we've all come to know and love. But do you know what else that face represents?

That's right. The shortstop that we'd have to let go.

Since he was drafted in the second round of the 1996 first-year player draft by the Phillies to his major league debut on September 17, 2000 and beyond, the 32-year-old Rollins—or J-Roll, as we've come to call him—has endeared himself in the hearts of Phillies fans. Whether it's his lovable gap-toothed smile, his leadership of the team, his charisma, or his bold predictions that always seem to come true, Rollins has been the center of the Phillies universe for the past 10 years.

And as unfortunate as it may be, there's always a time where we have to say our goodbyes; in the coming offseason, we will have to say goodbye to J-Roll.

But why would this even happen? Well, Rollins is also a free agent at the season's end, and he's repeatedly stated that he wants five years on a new deal and he won't be taking any "hometown discounts." At his age of 32, he's past his prime; his offensive stats have, for the most part, decreased yearly since his MVP season in 2007.

While Rollins' defense is still superb, he's not worthy of being a leadoff hitter anymore. The Phillies have Shane Victorino for that. Even if Rollins were to stay, however, his offense would most likely continue to plummet with every passing season and his injury proneness would increase by the minute. He would not be a good long-term investment, which is why the Phillies would probably look at Jose Reyes over Rollins in such a scenario.

Signing Jose Reyes

Ladies and geltlemen, please welcome your new Philadelphia Phillies shortstop, Jose Reyes.

In the event that the Phillies and Rollins decided to part ways, Reyes would obviously be the Phillies' top priority. With little available at shortstop behind Reyes and Rollins, the Phillies would go all-in on Reyes and offer him whatever they felt was fair.

As seen with Cliff Lee this past season, the Phillies have the money and the ability to sign whoever they can lure to the team. Reyes would likely be no exception, and GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. would be able to figure out a way to sign the middle infielder.

Here's how I'd see it play out: with the Phillies' main competitors for Reyes' services being the Giants, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, and Mets, Amaro would have to figure out what he believed was a legitimate offer for Reyes. Due to his injury-prone ways this past season, Reyes isn't due to make Carl Crawford money like many thought he could. Although it's likely he will earn a contract upwards of $90 million, the years and even the price are still up in the air, especially since it depends on what he's offered and how long of a contract a buyer is willing to give.

Knowing Amaro and his ninja-like ways, he would probably stay out of the limelight for quite some time, examining the offers the other suitors (especially those of money powerhouses like the Red Sox, Angels, and arguably, the Mets) if they're made public and then concocting an offer of his own. My guess is that—seeing Reyes' health concerns—he'd earn no more than six years in a deal and no more than $100 million. But who knows? It could take a lot more to sign him or even a lot less.

If I had to speculate as to what kind of contract Ruben Amaro would offer Reyes, I'd guess a 5-year, $95 million deal with a vesting option for a sixth year that would be exercised if he met a certain amount of at-bats and avoided the DL in his final season. It sounds fairly reasonable to me, given that Reyes' future production is uncertain (as it is with all players). Who knows what will happen in the next five or six years with Reyes?

We'll find out this offseason, and if all goes according to plan, Reyes will be a Philadelphia Phillie by the end of the year.

Why Jose Reyes Is Attractive to the Phillies

Jose Reyes is a player that most teams would covet—and for good reason, too.

Reyes was one of the all-around best players this season, hitting .337 with seven home runs, 44 RBI, 31 doubles, 16 triples, 39 stolen bases, and an .877 OPS consisting of a .384 OBP and a .493 SLG in 126 games played. Most of these stats were career highs for Reyes, and for a player just seeming to enter his prime, it only looks to get better from here.

In terms of the rest of the league, Reyes was the leading shortstop in the majors in walk-to-strikeout ratio (1.05), batting average (.337), OBP (.384), and wRC+ (149). He also came in second in SLG (.493), OPS (.877), BABIP (.353), WAR (6.2), wRC (98.5), wRAA (32.7), and wOBA (.386).

The only shortstop ahead of him in all but one of the categories in which Reyes finished second was Troy Tulowitzki of the Colorado Rockies. Since he's locked up through 2020, however,Reyes truly is the best available shortstop now and in the foreseeable future. The other category leader was Emilio Bonifacio, who led in BABIP, but that itself can be a stat of luck, not of talent.

Reyes is truly the best shortstop available on the market and arguably the best available player. It would be foolish for Ruben Amaro and the Phillies if they didn't pursue Reyes. He's young, only 28 years old, and he's still got a lot ahead of him. He's one of the fastest players in baseball and one of the game's most consistent hitters. The Phillies need to do anything they can to bring him here.

Why Jose Reyes Turns the Phillies Off

While Jose Reyes is a player the Phillies should definitely pursue, as with any player, there are some issues that could prove to be problematic if not addressed.

One of these issues is his susceptibility to injury. Although it was not a problem before this year, Reyes had his bout with injuries this season, particularly with his left hamstring, which he strained two or three times throughout the season. He was unable to play in the All-Star Game because of it, and he also missed much of August when he re-strained the same hamstring.

Additionally, Reyes is a terrible defender. Despite his improvement this season from last, his defensive stats still rank below average for MLB shortstops. His fielding percentage was an atrocious .968, his range factor per game was under the MLB average at 4.32, and his UZR was terrible, standing at -3.1. The Phillies would be losing quality in defense if they allowed Rollins to go elsewhere and signed Reyes. How much that would mean to the organization is uncertain, but it sure adds up over the course of a season (and thus, five or six).

If Reyes wants too much money or too many years on his next deal (as many star free agents do), then the Phillies could decide to kick the tires on a potential deal. Reyes is most likely worth no more than $100 million; if he gets a contract over six years, it could be surprising. If Reyes hadn't had his hamstring flare-ups this season, he could earn a seven-year deal worth over $100 million, but the season wasn't in his favor in terms of injury.

Whether the Phillies sign Reyes or not is still yet to be seen; but if they do sign him, they have to look at his cons as much as, if not more than, his pros.

What Does This All Mean?

We've looked at the hypothetical situation in which longtime Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins signs elsewhere and how his replacement would be current Mets shortstop Jose Reyes. We've seen why he's a good fit for the Phillies and why he could be a potential issue.

But have we comprehended what will come out of this? No.

Reyes has played for a team that has made the playoffs just once during his tenure, in 2006. The Phillies have won five straight NL East titles from 2007 to 2011, and it's unlikely that any player wouldn't want to be a part of that.

Last offseason, we saw Cliff Lee spurn more money and years from the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers to come back to his team of comfort, the Phillies. While Reyes probably wouldn't take a hometown discount or even a lower offer than others, he'd more than certainly listen to what the Phillies had to say, especially if they win it all again this year.

The Phillies are the team most everyone wants to be a part of. It remains to be seen whether Reyes would consider signing here. The Phillies have prevented the Mets from reaching the postseason five years straight, including in 2007 when the Mets were just a game away from a division tiebreaker.

Reyes is the offensive punch the Phillies need at shortstop and have lacked since Rollins' MVP season. And even though his defense is subpar and he is an injury-prone player, the pros outweigh the cons.

Reyes would probably take money over his opinions. And if the situation is right, meaning the Phillies have a chance to sign Reyes, the Phillies would go all-in to sign him. They exceeded what was thought to be their maximum payroll when they signed Cliff Lee with team president David Montgomery's permission. Montgomery said at the trade deadline that he'd even pass the luxury tax threshold if the deal was beneficial to the team. Now that Jose Reyes is available, will he and the Phillies step up to the plate and do what it takes to sign the all-star shortstop?

Only time will tell, but one thing's for sure: this coming offseason will be one to remember.