NFL Picks Week 4: Against-the-Spread Success Found in Turnovers

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The casual National Football League bettor walks into a sports book and lays a bet down on Team A or Team B and is on his merry way.

Professionals are crunching numbers on a weekly basis, and one of the more important ones is turnover differential.

It's no surprise that the top seven teams in this category will ride into Week 4 with a winning against-the-spread record.

Let's take a closer look at these teams and find out if they will remain at the top from a betting perspective.

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions are 2-0-1 ATS this year against the closing line, while compiling a plus-six turnover differential. 

Most of the difference was picked up in the team's 48-3 win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2, creating six miscues and fumbling just once.

With the continued maturity of quarterback Matthew Stafford, the Lions can definitely continue to be atop this category.

After all, Detroit finished plus-four in this category a year ago.

Baltimore Ravens

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Mixed emotions moving ahead with this team, as the defense created seven turnovers in a 35-7 season-opening win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Baltimore is 2-1 ATS on the year and will carry in a plus-six turnover differential into Week 3.

The defense isn't getting any younger, but remaining at this level should be expected.

The Ravens were plus-seven in this category a year ago.

San Francisco 49ers

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The San Francisco 49ers have compiled a perfect 2-0-1 ATS record despite having the worst offense in the National Football League.

Perhaps no team has benefited more from being tied atop this category with a plus-six differential. 

Being a former quarterback, first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh knows what he's got in Alex Smith, which isn't much.

Conservative play calling will continue in the Bay Area.

Buffalo Bills

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The only way you are going to beat the New England Patriots and quarterback Tom Brady these days is winning the turnover battle.

Buffalo did just that by scoring a plus-two differential, picking off the perennial All-Pro signal-caller four times.

After ranking last in this category a year ago, the Bills will put their 2-1 ATS record on the line, playing as road favorites against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Wager at your own risk in Week 4.

Green Bay Packers

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Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is going to start receiving more "Best Quarterback in the NFL" votes if he continues to take care of the football.

It's led to a 2-1 ATS record.

The defending Super Bowl champions have garnered a plus-four turnover differential this year, which has made up for being the 29th-ranked defense.

Expect more of the same due to the Packers being second in the NFC in this category a year ago.

New York Giants

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The New York Giants are always going to have a chance in games as long as quarterback Eli Manning doesn't go on a interception binge.

He has thrown six touchdowns and just two interceptions through three weeks, which will get the job done.

It's resulted in a 2-1 ATS mark and 2-1 straight-up record.

Manning's 25 interceptions of a year ago resulted in a minus-three turnover ratio.

Wager at your own risk.

Oakland Raiders

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Bettors have been rewarded at the windows in backing the Oakland Raiders, coming away with spread victories in all three weeks.

First-year head coach Hue Jackson was the offensive coordinator a year ago, which led the team to a minus-two turnover differential.

So far, so good in 2011, entering this week with a plus-three margin.

Value should continue to be found in backing the Silver and Black.