John Lackey's 2011 Season and Its Place in History

On September 19th, the Boston Red Sox started John Lackey in the second game of their doubleheader with the Baltimore Orioles. Lackey stayed true to his form this season, going 4.1 innings giving up eight runs on 11 hits and two walks.

That’s an ERA of 16.6 and a 2.54 WHIP. That brings Lackey's numbers for the season to 12-12 with a 6.49 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. In fact, his ERA is 1.15 runs above Bronson Arroyo’s, who has the second-worst ERA in all the Majors.

Now let’s take it a step further. How does Lackey’s 2011 season rank among the all-time worst in ERA for starters? Let’s see what the numbers say.

(Sorted by ERA and WHIP rank in parentheses)

Rank	Name	Year	Team	Record	ERA	WHIP	IP	GS
1	Les Sweetland	1930	PHI	7-15	7.71	1.982	167	25
2	Jim Deshaies	1994	MIN	6-12	7.39	1.719	130.1	25
3	Jack Knott	1936	SLB	9-17	7.29	1.894	192.2	23
4	Jose Lima	2005	KC	5-16	6.99	1.660	168.2	32
5	LaTroy Hawkins	1999	MIN	10-14	6.66	1.709	174.1	33
6	Greg Harris	1994	COL	3-12	6.65	1.585	130	19
7	Jose Lima	2000	HOU	7-16	6.65	1.625	196.1	33
8	Chubby Dean	1940	PHA	6-13	6.61	1.776	159.1	19
9	Darryl Kile	1999	COL	8-13	6.61	1.752	190.2	32
10	Nels Potter	1939	PHA	8-12	6.60	1.762	196.1	25
11	Ernie Wingard	1927	SLB	2-13	6.56	1.868	156.1	17
12	George Caster	1940	PHA	4-19	6.56	1.699	178.1	24
13	John Lackey	2011	BOS	12-12	6.49	1.630	154	27
14	Terry Mulholland	1994	NYY	6-7	6.49	1.550	120.2	19
15	Eric Milton	2005	CIN	8-15	6.47	1.551	186.1	34
16	Dave Fleming	1994	SEA	7-11	6.46	1.855	117	23
17	Jimmy Ring	1928	PHI	4-17	6.44	1.835	176	25
18	Joel Pineiro	2006	SEA	8-13	6.36	1.648	165.2	25
19	Jaime Navarro	1998	CHW	8-16	6.36	1.737	172.2	27
20	Nate Robertson	2008	DET	7-11	6.35	1.660	168.2	28

(All pitchers had to have qualified for the ERA title in Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index)

If the season ended today, Lackey’s ERA would be the 13th highest in MLB history among starters. With another start like he had against the Orioles, he could shoot up above LaTroy Hawkins and take fifth place.

It’s amazing to think that the Red Sox would keep sending him out on the hill. One could argue that the injuries to Clay Buchholz and Josh Beckett forced the Red Sox to start Lackey, but he has been historically bad this year.

In August, he posted 4.61 ERA with a 1.61 WHIP, and that was his best month in terms of ERA. In terms of WHIP, his best month was June, when he posted a 1.28 WHIP with a 5.28 ERA.

It is almost a complete certainty that when John Lackey pitches, you need to give him at least 5 runs of support for the team to win. The Red Sox would have been better off promoting guys from AAA.

At least the Red Sox would have had the chance to find someone who can produce at a respectable level. And now with Boston's lead in the AL Wild Card race shrinking, they have only one starter they can trust, Jon Lester, and they are praying that Beckett stays healthy.

This means that the only reason to continue start Lackey is to justify the contract the Rex Sox gave him.

And if they start him because they have invested $82.5 million in him, then they risk not making the playoffs just for the sake of attempting to justify a bad contract.

This is a blog post from 90% is Half Statistical. To view the other posts of this blog go to http://ninetypercentishalfstatistical.mlblogs.com/