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Matt Kemp vs. Ryan Braun: Who Is the Real NL MVP?

By (Senior Analyst) on September 7, 2011

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ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 4:  Matt Kemp #27 of the Los Angeles Dodgers watches the ball after hitting a 3-run homerun against the Atlanta Braves on September 4, 2011 at Turner Field in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Joe Murphy/Getty Images)
Joe Murphy/Getty Images

With three weeks remaining in the regular season, all the playoff spots seem to be filled. The Phillies, Brewers and Diamondbacks will win their respective divisions and the Braves will take the NL Wild Card spot. It's now time to speculate on all the postseason awards.

One of the tightest races will be the National League MVP award. Matt Kemp of the Dodgers and Ryan Braun of the Brewers look like they are the two players that appear to have the best shot at the award. Each is having an outstanding season, but only one will come out on top, voted as the league's most valuable player.

WAR, What Is It Good For?

ATLANTA - SEPTEMBER 3: Matt Kemp #27 of the Los Angeles Dodgers watches the action against the Atlanta Braves on September 3, 2011 at Turner Field in Atlanta, Georgia. The Dodgers beat the Braves 2-1. (Photo by Joe Murphy/Getty Images)
Joe Murphy/Getty Images

WAR or Wins Above Replacement represents the single number of wins a player added to a team over a replacement level player. Matt Kemp is the run-away winner in this category.

According to Baseball-Reference, Kemp's WAR for this year is 8.6, a clear indication of a MVP-type player. The number two player on the list is Braun, but he comes in at just 6.9. That's well above an All-Star level player, but falls far short of Kemp's number.

In comparison, last year's MVP, Joey Votto, has a 6.2 WAR this year, while Albert Pujols has a 5.1 and Prince Fielder has a 4.1.

Positional Battle

LOS ANGELES, CA - AUGUST 28:  Matt Kemp #27 of the Los Angeles Dodgers gets under a flyball in center field in the eighth inning during the MLB game against the Colorado Rockies at Dodger Stadium on August 28, 2011 in Los Angeles, California. The Rockies
Victor Decolongon/Getty Images

While defense rarely is a major factor in picking a MVP, it should, nonetheless, be looked at. Kemp roams center field in Dodger Stadium, one of the most pitching-friendly parks in the Majors.

Braun, on the other hand, plays left field in Miller Park. It's a much easier position and ballpark to acquaint one's self to. Braun has turned himself into a Gold Glove-level fielder, but he still doesn't have the range Kemp does.

40-40 Man

PITTSBURGH, PA - SEPTEMBER 01:  Matt Kemp #27 of the Los Angeles Dodgers scores on an RBI single by Aaron Miles #6 (not pictured) against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the game on September 1, 2011 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Justi
Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Kemp has already achieved a 30-30 season with his 32 home runs and 37 stolen bases. Although it's a long shot, he could still reach the 40-40 club with a surge in power over the last few weeks. Braun also has a chance at reaching the 30-30 club, but his home run total is off the pace of Kemp.

Added into the power/speed combo for Kemp is his ability to drive in runs. He's driven in 107 runs, just one behind league leaders Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard. Braun is fifth on the list with 95 RBI.

Valuable or Outstanding?

ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 4:  Matt Kemp #27 of the Los Angeles Dodgers is congratulated by Don Mattingly, manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers after hitting a 3-run homerun against the Atlanta Braves on September 4, 2011 at Turner Field in Atlanta, Georgia. (
Joe Murphy/Getty Images

There is no arguing the fact that both Kemp and Braun are having outstanding seasons. The problem with Kemp comes in his value to the Dodgers. Despite and outstanding WAR, how valuable is he really when the Dodgers are 69-72, good for only a distant third place in the NL West. The counter to the argument would be the Dodgers may be even worse off if not for Kemp's superb numbers in 2011.

Braun meanwhile, although he shares the glory with Fielder, has powered the Brewers to a dominating 9.5 game lead in the NL Central over the Cardinals.

Every Day Threat

LOS ANGELES, CA - AUGUST 27:  Matt Kemp #27 of the Los Angeles Dodgers rounds the bases after hitting the game-winning solo home run against the Colorado Rockies in the bottom of the 11th inning at Dodger Stadium on August 27, 2011 in Los Angeles, Califor
Jeff Golden/Getty Images

Only Prince Fielder has played in more games than Kemp this year. His ability to be an every day threat in the middle of the Dodgers line-up is one of the main ingredients when making a MVP-type player. He's been one of the bright spot for the Dodgers this year, in what has become one of the worse on and off the field seasons in team history.

Braun, on the other hand, missed time around the All-Star break with a leg injury. His numbers are very good, but they could be much better if he had played in all his team's games.

The Face of a Franchise

MILWAUKEE, WI - SEPTEMBER 1:  Ryan Braun #8 of the Milwaukee Brewers pauses on the field after  flying out in the 9th inning during their game against the St Louis Cardinals at Miller Park on September 1, 2011 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Cardinals beat t
Mark Hirsch/Getty Images

Although Prince Fielder is the clubhouse leader of the Brewers, it is Braun who presents the on-the-field swagger that the Brewers are known for. His confident attitude sometimes borders on cocky, but he can back it up with his play.

The Brewers have always been known as the franchise of Paul Molitor and Robin Yount, but with Fielder's exit via free agency imminent, Braun has established himself as the clear face of baseball in Milwaukee.

More over Less

PITTSBURGH - AUGUST 22:  Ryan Braun #8 of the Milwaukee Brewers makes a catch in right field against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the game on August 2, 2011 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.  (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)
Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

As I said earlier, Braun has put up very impressive numbers, despite missing time around the All-Star break with a leg injury. Had that injury not occurred, he would easily have reached the 30-30 club already and driven in and scored over 100 runs. The injury has also cost him a shot at another 200-plus hit season.

Kemp may have the advantage in power numbers, but Braun would be right there if their games played and plate appearances were even.

The Better Hitter

NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 21:  Ryan Braun #8 of the Milwaukee Brewers follows through on a sixth inning single against the New York Mets at Citi Field on August 21, 2011 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. The Brewers defeated
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Kemp is a very good, if not great hitter. Braun is a Hall of Fame-type of hitter. He became just the ninth player in baseball history to hit at least 150 home runs and drive in 500 runs in his first full five seasons earlier this year.

On top of that, Braun is in position to win his first career batting title. He's currently hitting .333, trailing Jose Reyes by a single point. Kemp is a distant third at .319.

Team Success

HOUSTON - SEPTEMBER 04:  Ryan Braun #8, Jerry Hairston, Jr. #27 and Corey Hart #1 of the Milwaukee Brewers celebrate after the final out as they defeat the Houston Astros 4-0 at Minute Maid Park on September 4, 2011 in Houston, Texas.  (Photo by Bob Levey
Bob Levey/Getty Images

While Kemp and the Dodgers have been realistically out of the pennant race most of the season, Braun and the Brewers have been on an amazing streak since the All-Star break, clearly establishing themselves as a legitimate World Series threat.

Braun continues to put up great numbers in the middle of a race for the best record in the league, while Kemp is playing out a bunch of meaningless games the rest of the season.

Blocked by a Teammate

HOUSTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 3: First baseman Prince Fielder #28 of the Milwaukee Brewers watches the Brewers defeat the Houston Astros on September 3,  2011 at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images)
Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images

While it's clear Kemp is the best player on his team, there is much room for debate on that subject with Braun. While Braun is putting up great numbers, Prince Fielder is doing the same. Fielder also gets more media attention for being the son of Cecil Fielder and for his impending free agency this winter.

Kemp gets the spotlight all to himself in Los Angeles, while Braun is sharing the spotlight in the smallest media market in baseball. Fielder may actually hurt Braun's chances when it comes to voting for the award.

The Verdict

PHOENIX, AZ - JULY 20:  Ryan Braun #8 of the Milwaukee Brewers bats against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the Major League Baseball game at Chase Field on July 20, 2011 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Brewers defeated the Diamondbacks 5-2 in 10 innings.  (Phot
Christian Petersen/Getty Images

When taking in all aspects of the argument, Ryan Braun should win the NL MVP Award.

He plays on the better team, and his numbers are as good as, if not better than, every player in the league.

Kemp's line reads: .319 BA, 32 HR, 107 RBI, 37 SB, .400 OBP, .567 SLG, .967 OPS, 62 extra base hits, and 92 runs scored.

Braun's line reads: .333 BA, 27 HR, 95 RBI, 31 SB, .402 OBP, .590 SLG, ..992 OPS, 67 extra base hits, and 96 runs scored.

Braun is also the clear favorite for Gold Glove at his position, even if Kemp may be the better overall fielder. Braun has also struck out over 50 fewer times in just 10 fewer games played than Kemp.

It remains to be seen how the Brewers will fare in the postseason this year, but the MVP in the National League is over. Ryan Braun is your 2011 winner.

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