Toronto Blue Jays: Forecasting 2012 Opening Day Pitching Staff Decisions

As promised in my Opening Day batting lineup piece here is a forecast for the Blue Jays Opening day pitching staff.

The Blue Jays pitching staff has been young and up and coming for years. Our system has been full of young heralded arms from Ricky Romero to Daniel Norris. I think every fan is awaiting the next Roy Halladay.

However once we let these young kids marinate in the minors we hope that they blossom into the kind of pitcher that throws shutouts (oh wait, Romero did that in his last start...).

Here is my take on the Toronto Blue Jays Pitching Staff come Opening Day 2012.

The Stalwarts

We know that we have some great young pitchers on this squad. Romero and Morrow have cemented their tenure as a bonafide 1-2 punch for the Jays.

Our remaining spots are open for competition.

Cecil has done well after his horrendous start and Villanueva has impressed many since his transition to a starter.

In the bullpen… can you name one player that is guaranteed a spot in that bullpen for 2012? Because I can’t. If any, it would have to be Casey Janssen.

We will begin by examining those who could possibly earn a rotation spot in 2012.

Option #1: Kyle Drabek

Everybody knows Drabek has the talent to be a front of the rotation type guy.

His biggest issues this season has been his maturity and inability to locate the strike zone (48/52 K/BB)

With seasoning he will be a dominant pitcher in this organization, when that will be the case is anyone’s guess.

 Odds of having a place in the rotation next season: 3-1

Option #2: Brett Cecil

Cecil had a remarkable season in 2010 with 15 wins. However, he started off 2011 terribly and was subsequently sent down.

Since his return he has posted some solid numbers and should be a lock for the 3rd or 4th spot in the rotation next year.

He needs to eliminate the long ball from his outings (8 HR allowed in his last 7 outings) in order to be more effective.

Odds of having a place in the rotation next season: 1.75-1

Option #3: Dustin McGowan

Who wouldn’t love to see McGowan back in the rotation in 2012?

He is pitching well in his three year rehab assignment and should be promoted to the Blue Jays in September.

He has zip on his fastball and could be a reliable mid to back end of the rotation guy. He always had great potential, so barring any setbacks, he should be on the Jays squad come 2012 Opening Day.

Now whether that is as a starter or not remains to be seen. 

Odds of having a place in the rotation next season: 5-1

Option #4: Luis Perez

In his first start of the season Perez dazzled with his location and velocity. The A’s looked lost against him.

Being only 26 years old, Perez could blossom into a solid member of the rotation or valuable lefty out of the bullpen.

Perez is on an impressive streak allowing only 1 ER in his last 10 IP. It is too early to project what Perez can do in the rotation but all signs point to it being a very real possibility.

Odds of having a place in the rotation next season: 8-1

Option #5: Carlos Villanueva

A converted reliever, Villanueva has pitched admirably as a starter this season.

One question I do not understand is what happened to his K’s since joining the rotation (6.41 K/9 as a starter; 11.59 K/9 in 2010).

I think people thought he has done better than he has as a starter this season as he has only posted two starts all season giving up less than 2 ER while having 8 starts of more than 2 ER.

People love him, but I don’t buy into it; put him in the pen to potentially close.

Odds of having a place in the rotation next season: 10-1

Option #6: Henderson Alvarez

Alvarez has shown signs of being a dynamic major league starter.

He is only 21 years old but already has shown the talent that has made so many Venezuelan pitchers so dynamic.

Another season of tutelage and refining his pitches could definitely help this youngster, and I think he can definitely be in the discussion for 2013 but not 2012. 

Odds of having a place in the rotation next season: 12-1

Option #7: Jesse Litsch

This kid who has looked like a chubby 14-year-old since day one has not put together enough consistency to warrant a spot in the rotation.

He has pitched well recently out of the bullpen this month (only two outings in which he gave up an ER) and I would think his days as a starter are now behind him unless injuries occur. 

Odds of having a place in the rotation next season: 18-1

Option #8: Brad Mills

I have been hearing about the potential of Mills for quite some time now but I just don’t see it.

Mills clearly is not ready for the big leagues with his 4 starts resulting in (2 ER, 3 ER, 6 ER, 6 ER)

Will he ever turn into the starter people have envisioned? If so, it won’t be anytime soon and he would have to work extremely hard to make this rotation out of camp next year.

Odds of having a place in the rotation next season: 25-1

Option #9: Deck McGuire

The 11th pick in the 2010 Draft, Deck McGuire is a very mature 22-year-old.

He has good command of his pitches and can place them all with decent accuracy.

He is not someone who projects to being a top of the rotation guy but could challenge for the final two spots in the rotation.

We will see if he gets a call in September and what chance that would lead towards his inclusion in the rotation in 2012.

Odds of having a place in the rotation next season: 27-1

Option #10: Sign a Free Agent

The list of possible UFAs after this season is not a very intriguing list.

Possible signings could be Buehrle, C.J Wilson, Brandon Webb or Javier Vazquez, yet all would require a substantial contract.

Saving Wilson, would be much better than what we already have in the system at a much cheaper price?

We could also inquire about Canadians Dempster, Francis or Harden. These are all possibilities but I think our rotation could be quite good as it stands.

Here is one that I believe could be a solid addition.

Possible Signing: Ryan Dempster

Dempster has been a quality starter in this league for quite some time.

He is having a down year this year with his 4.60 ERA (he has not had an ERA higher than 3.85 since 2007), yet he has still shown signs of being dominant at times.

It was also tough for him to come back from his dreadful April (31 IP, 33 ER).

That being said he can still pitch and even though he has been in the league since 1998 he is only 34 years old.

His relaxed, comedic style would mesh well with the Blue Jays pitchers and being Canadian I think he could rejuvenate his career playing for Canada’s team.

Bullpen

Who is a shoe-in next year for a bullpen role?

Camp, Francisco (if re-signed; both UFAs), Janssen and?

Depending on who doesn’t make the rotation, they could easily be placed in the bullpen thus solidifying our bullpen.

Taking a look at possible free agent relief pitchers, as one could assume the list is pretty elementary.

Unless they want to pay Broxton at a decent price and try and fix his velocity issues, there won’t be anyone worth a bag of baseballs on this list other than some ridiculously expensive options.

Boy would it be nice to see Papelbon pitch against the Sox though…

There is only one player on this list that tickles my fancy at all.

Possible Signing: Ryan Madson

A smart and consistent pitcher that has never disappointed in any role given.

Madson will be 31 on Sunday but has not had a taxing career to date (only 613 career IP).

Madson has flourished in the Phillies bullpen posting great numbers as a set-up man in 2009, 2010 (2009: 3.26 ERA 9 K/9; 2010 2.55 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 10.86 K/9) and as a closer in 2011 (3.25 ERA, 23/25 SVs, 9.61 K/9).

He will not garner the same type of salary as Broxton but would be an excellent addition to our bullpen and could finally solidify our closer woes.

My Projected Rotation

1. Romero
2. Morrow
3. Cecil
4. Drabek
5. McGowan

I think the first 3 are somewhat sealed in with Drabek getting another shot in the show and McGowan reminding us why he had so much potential (B/R article on McGowan)

The Blue Jays management want to stretch out McGowan as a starter so that he is on a set schedule. Who knows what will transpire until Opening Day but the way I see it this could be a very solid rotation with some possible fill-ins if necessary.

Honorable mention: Alvarez, Perez, Villanueva

My Projected (Hopeful) Bullpen (No Specific Order)

1. Janssen
2. Camp
3. Perez (CL?)
4. Villanueva (CL?)
5. Madson (CL?)
6. Mills
7. Litsch (Long man)

With Villanueva and Perez out of the rotation they could provide solid arms in the bullpen. I would love to see Madson in a Jays uniform. Otherwise we have many in-house possible suitors to close. These possiblities could be Perez, Villanueva, possibly McGowan or even newly drafted John Stilson. Either way, in AA we trust.

Thoughts?

Who else could we possibly sign or trade for?

Does Villanueva make the rotation for sure?

Add your comments and start a discussion below!