MLB Power Rankings: Rating the Potential Playoff Teams from Both Leagues

With drama in short supply this August, many MLB fan bases already have their eyes turned to October.

At least three divisions are all but won (AL West, NL East, and NL Central) with a fourth, the AL East, turning into a meaningless bit of musical chairs between two sure-fire playoff participants. Throw in a couple of half-hearted Wild Card races and the winding drudgery of late Summer feels all the more stifling.

But what’s that I hear? The cool breezes of Autumn howling ‘round the bend!

So snap yourself out of those fixed, divisional doldrums and indulge in this wonderful spectacle comparing teams across infinite spectra of space and time.

As a bonus, each team’s ranking comes complete with playoff percentage chances* and a promotional team video. Because who doesn’t love watching athletes act? Answer: Haters, and haters alone.

* All teams considered “contenders” have at least a 5% chance of making the playoffs according to Coolstandings.com.

13. Chicago White Sox

Chance of making playoffs: 15.5 percent

The White Sox are the worst team left playing for a spot in the postseason, but that doesn’t mean I don’t like their chances. They’ve got enough talent to sneak pass Cleveland and Detroit in baseball’s worst division and of the three they’ve played the best baseball lately.

Like the 2005 squad, this year’s team relies on a deep pitching rotation void of true starpower. It’s a testament to the staff that the White Sox start Adam Dunn, Brent Morel, Juan Pierre and Alex Rios—each among the worst in baseball at their respective positions—and still have a puncher’s chance. If Adam Dunn can pull a quick Uggla and push his average near .200 before year’s end, the Sox might just score enough runs to catch their divisional foes.

.500? Yes.

Out of contention? Not at all.

12. Cleveland Indians

Chance of making playoffs: 34.5 percent

More was made of the Ubaldo acquisition, but for my money the biggest deadline improvement the Indians made was at second base.

Rookie Jason Kipins represents a huge upgrade from Orlando Cabrera on offense. In 18 games Kipins has more home runs than Cabrera hit in 91 contests and his .950 OPS dwarfs Cabrera’s anemic .598 mark in an Indians uniform. If fellow prospect Lonnie Chisenhall can catch up with Kipins, the Indians have enough pop in their middle infield to play into October.

They still lack pitching depth, but as of today they’re the only team in the AL Central with a positive run differential (+4). On that alone you’d have to give them a decent shot to pass the overachieving Tigers.

Video note: Indians didn’t put any ads on YouTube. This video serves as punishment.

11. San Francisco Giants

Chance of making playoffs: 35.9 percent

With Carlos Beltran on the DL, it’s getting harder and harder to envision this team surging past Arizona. Lincecum and Cain can’t be much better than they’ve been in August (2.40 ERA combined) and if either of those two slumps their repeat chances are toast.

Lately they’re playing down to their negative run differential and beginning to look like a fatally flawed team. People tried inventing excuses for this team, looking for some way to explain a robust record that defied their miserable offense. But as Buck Showalter says, there are no Cinderellas in an 162 game season and it appears that the clock has struck midnight for the champs.

10. Detroit Tigers

Chance of making playoffs: 50.0 percent

The Tigers are more star reliant than any other team in this ranking. The offense leans on Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander carries the rotation. So far it’s worked and they have managed to avoid San Fran’s fate despite an equally poor run differential. But the Tigers’ positioning looks perilous and any little cut or bruise could sink this team.

Most pressing on Jim Leyland’s fix-it list is right field, where the Tigers have gotten nothing from the rapidly aging Magglio Ordonez. They recently brought in Delmon Young, another player having a wretched year, with hopes that youthful exuberance and potential will carry the day. It’s a gamble worth taking, since nothing can be much worse than the alternative.

Video Note: No commercials from the Tigers either...Enter Chrysler.

9. Los Angeles Angels

Chance of making playoffs: 4.6 percent (We'll give them the benefit of the doubt and round up to 5)

Though they have virtually no shot at the postseason, the Angels have as impressive a one-two combo at the top of their rotation as any team in baseball. Add a surging Ervin Santana to the Weaver-Haren tandem and the Angels have the right pieces in place for a couple of years to come.

I’d be more bullish on their chances if they didn’t have Vernon Wells’ albatross contract swelling their payroll. Between Wells and Torii Hunter the Halos have sunk serious money into marginal players, handicapping both their financial flexibility and their ability to fully evaluate super prospect Mike Trout. The Angels may lead the league in bad veteran contracts and one has to wonder how they’ll catch up to the still improving Rangers.

8. St. Louis Cardinals

Chance of making playoffs: 16.7 percent

Cardinals fans have to wonder what might have been this year had Adam Wainwright stayed healthy. Add one of the NL’s top five pitchers to this team and I think they could have hung with the Braves and Phillies atop the league. Though their record doesn’t show it, they have actually posted a better run differential than the Brewers. Problem is they haven’t put those runs to good use and overcoming a seven game deficit this late in the season is a tall order.

Looking toward next year, the solution in St. Louis is not as simple as awaiting Wainwright’s return. Both Albert Pujols and Lance Berman are free agents and without one or both of them the offense won’t repeat its 2011 performance. Colby Rasmus was their best candidate for an in-house improvement, but now he’s in Toronto and the Redbirds will likely take to the free agent market in search of power bats.

7. Arizona Diamondbacks

Chance of making playoffs: 68 percent

The balance of logic is shifting and suddenly there are more reasons to believe in these Diamondbacks than there are reasons to doubt them. They’re young, they can hit, they cover ground in the field and they have enough pitching to get by.

If they do falter down the stretch, the starting staff will likely be to blame. Ian Kennedy’s ERA is a bit misleading—3.58 FIP versus 3.12 ERA—and Joe Saunders has managed to dodge the consequences of a horrendous K:BB ratio. Jason Marquis would have fit nicely on the back end, but now he’s done for the year and they’ll have to lean heavily on the trio of Kennedy, Daniel Hudson and rookie Josh Collmenter.

Even if things don’t end well this season, the Diamondbacks look set for the future, Especially with 20-year-old LHP wunderkinds Tyler Skaggs and David Holmberg tearing through AA. There’s plenty of reason for optimism in the desert.

Video Note: No D-Backs commercials, so I went with "Snakes on a Plane." Samuel Jackson, out!

6. Milwaukee Brewers

Chance of making playoffs: 92.6 percent

The Brewers have an elite offense, right?

Not really.

They certainly have some elite performers in their lineup, but as offenses go they’re merely above average this year. Within the NL they’ve been outscored by the Reds, Cardinals, Mets, Rockies and Diamondbacks and they’re only nine runs ahead of the pace set by the supposedly anemic Phillies.

The true strength of this team is its balance, they’re eighth in the NL in runs allowed and sixth in runs scored. Improvements made to the pitching staff in the off-season clearly paid off and with Zack Greinke’s tough luck on balls-in-play (.322) and career-worst HR sure to normalize this staff could get even better.

I’m not sure the Brewers are as good as their record right now, but I think they have the potential to be.

5. Atlanta Braves

Chance of making playoffs: 83.3 percent

The Braves scare everyone. The Phillies, the Yankees, the Red Sox, everyone. At this point it seems Atlanta management is toying with the league, reveling in the fact that they can trot a new phenom pitcher out to the mound every other week without ever scraping the bottom of their minor league barrel. Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino and now Randall Delgado, the parade never ends.

Their pitching staff, bullpen included, might already be the best in baseball. They could be even better, if only they substituted one of their many phenoms for the merely average Derek Lowe. If their offense ever approaches respectable (paging Jason Heyward), they could put together a powerful good run of baseball.

4. Texas Rangers

Chance of making playoffs: 95.9 percent

With all the talk about baseball’s elite three being so much better than the rest of the league, no one’s really noticed Texas lurking the shadows. Nevertheless, the Rangers, bolstered by a couple of savvy bullpen additions at the deadline, are gaining ground on the Sox, Yanks and Phils.

Texas recently joined the aforementioned trio as the only other team in baseball with a 100 plus run differential and they don’t lack for anything. Offense? Check. Starting pitching? A surprisingly emphatic "check." Bullpen? Check plus.

I’ll admit, I thought their run to the World Series last year was a bit fluky, but this year they’re proven they're a team on the rise.

3. Boston Red Sox

Chance of making playoffs: 96.5 percent

Here’s where the controversy starts. How did we sort through three dominant teams with any sort of certainty? Look for weaknesses. And although the Red Sox were supposed to have a better starting rotation than the patchwork Yankees staff, they don’t. Their team ERA ranks 17th in baseball and that must be of some concern to Terry Francona.

Clay Buchholz's uncertain status only makes things dicier. Jon Lester is a true ace, but it's hard to make sense of the men behind him. Josh Beckett has been a revelation, though his insanely low .235 batting average on balls-in-play brings his ERA into question. After Beckett none of the options looks particularly palatable. Compared to the Yankees and Phillies, I think the Sox have the most glaring deficiency.

Bonus Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjBvgYHBDXo

2. New York Yankees

Chance of making playoffs: 99.1 percent

We take the Yankees presence at the top of the league as a given, without appreciating just how good this year's squad has been. They have scored more runs per game than any team in baseball, notched the second-best team ERA in the AL and cruised to a sizable lead in the race for best run differential.

The only perceived weakness in the Yankees is their starting pitching. They have an almost opposite problem from the Red Sox. The Sox have a bunch of proven pitchers doing diddly—Lackey, Matsuzaka, Buchholz—while the Yankees have received robust contributions from the young (Ivan Nova), the old (Freddy Garcia) and the genetically enhanced (Bartolo Colon). If those three can maintain, they’ll have enough help behind C.C. Sabathia to win the American League.

Something tells me, though, that Yankees fans are waiting for the other shoe to drop.

Video Note: Not a team ad, but still totally necessary.

1. Philadelphia Phillies

Chance of making playoffs: 99.9 percent

In the beginning of the year the Phillies were a good team playing a bit over their head. Despite a below-average offense and a good not great run differential, they skated to a cushy division league. When Chase Utley returned, a good team became a great team and the Phillies began putting serious distance between themselves and the rest of the NL. When they acquired Hunter Pence at the trade deadline, a great team became a singularly great team capable of setting all sorts of history.

Just one extraordinary fact among many:  When the Phillies improved to 76-40 on August 9 it was the first time they'd been 36 games above .500 since the END of the 1977 season.

Yes, losses are a rarity in Philadelphia these days and the team just keeps getting stronger. After hitting their nadir with an okay May (16-13), the Phils bounced back in June (17-10), steamrolled into July (17-8) and now hold August in a choke-hold (11-3). The rest of the season will be a balancing act between resting regulars and keeping everyone on the roster focused.

Now none of this guarantees anything. A five game series in baseball is the equivalent of poorly rigged coin flip. But even if the playoffs are a crap-shoot, at least the Phils are sure bets to be there.