Why the St. Louis Cardinals Should NOT Re-Sign Albert Pujols

Before I even write this article, a quick disclaimer: I have an Albert Pujols jersey hanging in my closet,  I'm a die hard Cardinals fan, and Albert is probably my second favorite player ever, right behind Willie McGee. So I'm glad we've got that out of the way.

I know this might be extremely unpopular with Cardinals fans, but I don't think the Cardinals should 'break the bank' to try to re-sign Pujols. Sure, he is the best hitter of this generation, and one of the greatest hitters of all time. Having said that, if the Cardinals make Pujols the highest paid player in baseball, I think it will hurt them more than it will help them.

Let me explain why.....

Learn from Others Mistakes... We Are Looking at You Toronto!

Vernon Wells was a talented young player. During his first full season in the big leagues (2002) he hit 23 homers, drove in 100 RBIs and played solid defense in center field. From 2002 to 2007 Wells was one of the best outfielders in baseball. He was named to two All Star teams and won three Gold Gloves. So why was re-signing him a mistake? 

Re-signing him wasn't the mistake. The amount they paid him was.

Vernon Wells, a very good player, was 28 years old. Toronto rewarded him with a seven year, $126 million contract. Like most pro sports contracts it was heavily "back loaded," meaning the salary balloons in the later years of the deal.  And unlike football contracts, all baseball contracts are fully guaranteed, which meant Toronto was on the hook for every penny.  Of course, they traded him to the Angels, so now they are paying for Toronto's mistake.

So we all know the rest of the story. Vernon Wells remained a very solid player.  Last year he hit 31 homers and 44 doubles. He was an All Star again. He is still good, but he made over $23 million! Is he worth that much? Of course not! Very few players are, and, no offense to Vernon Wells, he isn't one of them.

The lesson here, Cardinals fans, is that it never works out when you pay a guy a bunch of money during the back half of his career for the results he had in his prime years. We are already seeing a slight decline in Pujols' production. Sure, he is still tied for the league lead in homers, he is still a run producer and a very good player. But he is also 31 years old. He wants an 8-10 year deal worth about $30 million per season.  Do you want to be paying him $30 million when he is 38 years old? 

Just ask Vernon Wells' new team, the Anaheim Angels, if they want to pay him over $21 million when he is 35. Because that is what they will be paying him, and that is a big mistake.

The Cardinals Are Not the Yankees

Okay, let's pretend for just a minute that the Cardinals will break down and pay Albert $25 million per season for seven years. That would be a great deal for Albert because it would pay him mega bucks until he turns 38 years old. It would also be a great deal for the Cardinals, in the eyes of some, because they wouldn't have to pay "A Rod Money." 

Not so fast.

The Cardinals are not the Yankees. You see, the Yankees can afford to pay a guy $25-30 million per season. They can afford to pay A Rod $32 million and still have enough money left over for some starting pitchers (CC Sabathia $24M, AJ Burnett $16.5M), a first baseman (Mark Teixeira, $23M), a closer (Mariano Rivera, just under $15M), a shortstop (Derek Jeter, at a discount price of $14.8M), a second baseman (Robinson Cano, a cool $10M) and disability benefits (sorry Jorge, but somehow you are still making $13M). The Yankees are swimming in cash. Their payroll structure can support this kind of lineup.

But again, the Yankees are not the Cardinals.

Matt Holliday is making over $16M, and Kyle Lohse is making $12M per year. After those two players, the Cardinals don't have anybody tied up with a big term contract after this season. So they have the money to throw at Pujols if they want to do it. However, if they do, then how are they going to re-sign Chris Carpenter, even at a discount rate? How are they going to pay Adam Wainwright when his contract comes up? How are they going to find a quality shortstop? What about a closer?

You get the idea.

Bottom line, if the Cardinals give Albert the big bucks, they have to hope and pray that their minor league system provides talent every year because that talent is cheap, and that is the only way they'll be able to compete. They won't be able to spend in free agency. Again, these are the Cardinals, not the Yankees.

Speaking of the Minor League System.....

So if the Cardinals sign Albert to "A Rod Money," they will have to rely on minor league talent to support the big league team. This has kind of already been the model put in place by GM John Mozeliak. They want to bring up talented young players like Chris Perez, Colby Rasmus, and Brett Wallace to keep the Cardinals competitive.

Except the Cardinals traded Wallace, Perez and Rasmus. So basically the Cardinals are back to square one in terms of winning with home grown talent.

The Cardinals have a pair of golden arms in the minors, Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez. With Jaime Garcia already signed to a long term deal, and Adam Wainwright still young enough to contribute for years, it looks like the Cardinals could have a great pitching rotation. As a matter of fact, the bullpen also looks solid with guys like Kyle McClellan, Mitchell Boggs, Fernando Salas and Jason Motte already at the big league level. They also just traded for 25 year old lefty Marc Rzepczynski, who is a promising player. Then they have power arms on the way in Eduardo Sanchez, Tyrell Jenkins, Deryk Hooker and Lance Lynn. Pitching does not seem to be the problem.

Finding major league hitters is, well, another story.

Since the Cardinals traded Rasmus, the best hitter to come through the farm system in years, young talent is thin at the major league level. Jon Jay has been productive, Allen Craig is a bat without a position, and David Freese seems talented but can't stay healthy. The farm system has Zack Cox (3B), Matt Carpenter (3B), Matthew Adams (1B) and Darryl Jones (OF). However, none of these guys project as elite players at the major league level.

So we are right back to square one. If we pay all that money to Albert, and the opposing manager decides to walk him, then who steps up and gets the big hit? 

What Happens to Ticket Prices If Albert Strikes It Rich?

St. Louis fans are among the most loyal in baseball. But I wonder what would happen if the Cardinals paid Albert Pujols $30M per season, raised ticket prices and then fielded a sub par team? Would St. Louis fans pay high ticket prices to watch a sub .500 team? I don't know, but I don't want to find out.

Maybe the opposite will happen. Maybe Pujols will sign a 10 year, $350M contract with the Cubs, they go on to win the World Series, and Cardinals fans will boycott the games because the team DIDN'T re-sign him!

Hey, let's not find out. Come on Albert! Sign a reasonable deal, seven years, $20M per season, and allow the Cardinals to put good players around you. The Cardinals will keep winning, you will go down as one of the all time greats, and you will still have enough money to swim in.

As always, thanks for reading.