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The Broncos are a little over $9 million over the cap limit and Kyle Orton's 2011 salary is just under $9 million. They have been shopping Orton on the trade market but haven't been able to complete a deal. The deadline for teams to get their salary under the cap is Thursday.
The above facts point to one probable conclusion: Denver will release Orton by Thursday.
The Dolphins weren't willing to give up the reported second-round pick Denver was asking for in return and Miami is playing this deal wisely. Essentially, they're calling Denver's bluff.
Near the end of the week, I expect Orton to be a free agent and for Miami to sign him to a long-term contract.
Miami doesn't necessarily need Orton; Chad Henne and Matt Moore are expected to compete for the starting job, and though they haven't had much NFL success yet, they do still have potential to perform well in 2011.
However, Orton is an upgrade and can lead the Dolphins to the postseason.
Update: Denver is reportedly on the hook for paying Orton half of his salary already, and he's been outplaying Tim Tebow in practice. Orton could still be released by Thursday, but it's less likely than last week.