NFL Trade Scenarios: Why the Cardinals Should Have Gone with Orton over Kolb

The Cardinals just today traded with the Eagles to acquire Kevin Kolb to be their QB of the future.They gave the Eagles Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2nd round pick. They now have themselves their QB of the future, but I for one think they should have gone in a different direction with all of this and acquired a player who made more sense from all angles. That player they should have gone after is Kyle Orton. 

Orton would have given the Cardinals exactly what they need: a competent QB who can play the game well, keep the offense flowing decently, and make Larry Fitzgerald happy. When you look at last season, they QB position was absolutely horrendous to watch. I'm not sure what they were thinking before the season, but I wouldn't have been comfortable with Derek Anderson, Max Hall, or John Skelton as my third-string QB, much less starting any games like they all did. With Orton, the Cardinals could have had a QB that has proven he can play the position at a pretty high level. 

I'm not saying that Orton is some elite QB, but he was exactly what they needed. He will be much better than what they had, you know for sure what you are getting with him, and he wouldn't have cost nearly as much as Kolb did.

Kolb cost them Rodgers-Cromartie—a really good, young playmaker at CB who stands to only get better—AND a 2nd round pick next year. Not only that, but they signed him to a 5 year, 63 million contract extension. That's a big gamble when you have only seen spot starting duty from him up until now. He could end up as an elite QB certainly, but there are signs pointing towards him being marred in mediocrity as well. He has an 11:14 TD:INT ratio for his career, with those numbers being boosted by two games in 2009 where he torched bad and/or overaggressive secondaries. He has a career passer rating in the low 70s. Hell, I would go as far to say that he isn't even better than Orton—and the numbers help my cause.

People tend to say that Kolb has three main advantages over Orton: strong arm, accuracy and mobility. 

Accuracy actually hasn't been a huge difference between the two (Career: 60.8 Kolb, 58.1 Orton). Orton's lack of arm strength gets highly overrated. His arm is not nearly as weak many think, but he got labeled with it early on and since he doesn't throw 40 yards down field every pass (a la Philip Rivers) he hasn't been able to lose the tag. Kolb's mobility is obviously overrated too. He got sacked 15 times in five starts (and two non-starts), which if averaged over a full season would mean around 40-45 sacks. Meanwhile, Orton got sacked 34 times in 13 games, which on average would be in Kolb's range had he played all 16. So much for Kolb's mobility advantage.

When it comes to other areas, Orton has the advantage. Throughout each of their careers, Orton is 32-30 as a starter, while Kolb is 3-3—with bad games and/or losses his other appearances (Ravens game in '08; Packers game in '10; 1st Redskins game in '10). Orton has a 71:48 TD:INT ratio, compared to Kolb's previously stated 11:14. QB rating? Orton wins that, 79.6 to 73.2--and is even better if you count the last two years (when Kolb has actually seen starting time) with a 87.2-82.5 advantage over that time. Yards per pass attempt—which hints at that arm strength debate? Orton by a smidgen, 6.54 to 6.53. 

So Kolb's only true advantage is that he still gets rated on potential, while you know what you get with Orton. And given all these areas where Orton surpasses Kolb, the Cardinals must truly expect him to be elite QB material. With what Orton has shown the past three years as a starter though, I would have taken him for a third rounder—which is what I've read is what they Broncos want—or even a 2nd rounder over Kolb for Rodgers-Cromartie AND a 2nd rounder in a heartbeat. The Cardinals should have looked at things such as this before making a franchise-altering move like this. It's too late for them to turn back and change this now though, so if they are wrong this hard-luck franchise is on the bad end of another egregious mistake.