2011 NFL Predictions: 17 Big-Name Rookies Sure To Bust

Draft busts are a large part of what makes the NFL draft such a fantastic event. Not knowing if the No. 1 overall pick will become Peyton Manning or JaMarcus Russell just adds to the drama and wonderment of who each team will select.

Before the season begins, we are taking a look at 17 rookies sure to bust this season.

Enjoy.

17. Stephen Paea, Chicago Bears

Stephen Paea was drafted in the second round by the Chicago Bears with the hope of plugging him into the spot vacated when the team cut Tommie Harris.

Paea is among the strongest players to enter the NFL draft—ever—but can that strength translate onto the field at an NFL level?

Paea has struggled before to hold up against elite interior blockers, as well as issues due to injury. Paea will struggle to live up to expectations in Chicago.

16. Daniel Thomas, Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins will lose both Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown to free agency this season, which makes the addition of Daniel Thomas in the second round of the 2011 NFL draft all the more important.

Thomas will have heavy expectations in Miami unless the team moves to add a premier runner through trade or free agency. Either way, this second-rounder will be asked to carry the workload from an early stage in his career.

Thomas is a power runner with good speed, but he's not at the level of Williams or Brown. The offensive line in Miami could also use some work. Until there is a threat of a passing game for the Dolphins, Thomas and the rest of the backs will struggle.

15. Leonard Hankerson, Washington Redskins

As long as the Redskins plan to roll out John Beck at quarterback, any and all receivers will struggle.

That includes rookie Leonard Hankerson.

Hankerson has a game that allows him to get behind the defense, but he also has issues with drops and may not have the speed to run away from defenders at an NFL level.

If drops plague Hankerson in Washington like they did at Miami, he'll be labeled a bust in no time.

14. Dontay Moch, Cincinnati Bengals

Dontay Moch was loved by coaches, scouts and draft fans due to his freakish speed and ability as a pass-rusher at Nevada.

Sounds a lot like another player in Cincinnati—Michael Johnson.

Like Johnson, Moch is supposed to be an unstoppable athlete who can dominate the edges and get after the quarterback. He's also more athlete than football player at this point, something that is generally a bad thing.

Moch may be a great athlete, but he looks like a situational player at best.

13. Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens

Sometimes you can just tell that a player either has it or doesn't.

Torrey Smith falls under those who do not have it.

Smith is an athletic and fast wide receiver but an unpolished route-runner and inconsistent when it comes to actually, you know, catching the football.

Smith can be an exciting player, but he's too raw for his own good and the Ravens have never been a team to develop talent at wide receiver.

12. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers' second-round pick was used on quarterback Colin Kaepernick—a tremendous athlete and productive college quarterback who many think can be converted to a franchise quarterback in the NFL once Jim Harbaugh gets a hold of him.

We aren't so sure.

Kaepernick is a good project, but expecting him to play immediately would be a bad move. His mechanics and decision-making need a lot of work.

11. Aaron Williams, Buffalo Bills

Aaron Williams was drafted with the expectation of being a shutdown cornerback in Buffalo early in his career. We don't see that happening.

Williams was a good college player, but not a great one, and many would argue that he was not even the best cornerback on his college team.

Williams might be a better fit at free safety than cornerback. Expect him to struggle to learn the cornerback position.

10. James Carpenter, Seattle Seahawks

The surprise pick of the first round in the 2011 NFL draft was of offensive tackle James Carpenter of Alabama.

Carpenter was viewed as a third-round pick on our board over at New Era Scouting, and that's how we expect him to play in his rookie season.

Carpenter will be expected to start at right tackle in replacing Sean Locklear—a job he is not fit for.

9. Cameron Jordan, New Orleans Saints

When the New Orleans Saints drafted Cameron Jordan, many thought they had just selected their bookend pass-rusher for the next decade.

Here is where I disagree:

Jordan is a great fit at defensive end in a 3-4 defense; there, his athletic ability, size and strength would be an asset on the edge. In the Saints' 4-3 defense, where does he fit?

Jordan may line up at left defensive end, but he would ideally be a better fit inside at tackle, but the team has Sedrick Ellis there.

Jordan, if only because of his lack of a true position, will be handed the bust label.

8. Corey Liuget, San Diego Chargers

Corey Liuget was overrated really from the get-go in terms of NFL draft stock.

Liuget enjoyed a decent season at Illinois before dominating in a bowl game versus Baylor. Once that happened, and on a national stage, his stock took off.

Liuget could have maybe become a nice contributor in a 4-3 defense, but in the Chargers' 3-4 scheme he's a man without a true position.

Too small to handle nose tackle duties, Liuget is not an ideal fit at defensive end either.

7. Ryan Kerrigan, Washington Redskins

Ryan Kerrigan, a defensive end at Purdue, will be expected to learn to drop back into coverage and rush the passer from a two-point stance with the Redskins.

This is something many college defensive ends do once in the NFL, but most college ends have better overall quickness, athleticism and agility than Kerrigan brings to the NFL.

It's unfortunate, but around half the players drafted in the first round end up as "busts." Kerrigan is just another one of those guys.

6. J.J. Watt, Houston Texans

If history has taught us anything, it is that drafting a 3-4 defensive end too high in the draft is a huge mistake.

Just ask the Kansas City Chiefs how happy they are with their two top-five picks at the position, Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson.

J.J. Watt is a very good football player, but as a 3-4 end, he will never live up to the expectations of a top-15 draft pick.

5. Tyron Smith, Dallas Cowboys

Drafting a college right tackle and asking him to immediately step in at left tackle in the NFL seems like a dangerous idea. That's because it is.

Tyron Smith was a great prospect as an athletic right tackle, which is where he would be a great fit in Dallas as a replacement to Marc Colombo. Unfortunately, it does look like Dallas will plug Smith in at left tackle should they lose Doug Free.

If Smith comes in and plays left tackle, expect many struggles along the way.

4. Jonathan Baldwin, Kansas City Chiefs

Using a late first-round pick on a prima donna wide receiver is something that NFL teams do seemingly every year. And as it happens, each year at least one first-round wide receiver ends up under the label of "draft bust."

Of the three receivers chosen in the first round this year, it's Baldwin who we've flagged as most likely to bust.

He has had trouble separating from defenders, has issues with throwing his quarterback under the bus and generally seems immature. How that will fly in Kansas City remains to be seen.

3. Aldon Smith, San Francisco 49ers

We don't mean to pick on the 49ers by listing their first two picks from the 2011 NFL draft in our top 17 draft busts list; it just happened.

Aldon Smith is a player that I was able to watch closely, as he played college football in my home state. Smith was always viewed as a good athlete, but never once as a dominating pass-rusher who would transition well to the NFL.

Smith will be asked to step into a role he is completely unfamiliar with by lining up at outside linebacker in San Francisco. That screams bust potential.

2. Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans

Look back at the quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the NFL draft over the last 15 years. Around half of them make it and become quality players in the NFL at a high level. The other half crash and burn pretty fast.

Jake Locker, as much as I like him, is sadly in the "likely to bust" column at this point.

Locker's accuracy issues while at Washington are a scary problem for a young quarterback in the NFL. He's also on a roster in Tennessee that lacks a fully stocked crew of wide receivers—especially if Kenny Britt is suspended.

I like Jake Locker, a lot, but his future looks shaky.

1. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

Cam Newton, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 NFL draft, was regarded as many NFL scouts as the best player in the 2011 class. He's also the most risky.

The NFL draft is a boom-or-bust market, with many also believing his bust potential is much higher than the chances he will become a quality NFL starter.

Newton has a lot to overcome, no matter how hard he's working this offseason. He's never ran a pro-style offense, he played just one season at a major college and his mechanics need a ton of work before he'll be up to speed at an NFL level.

The work can be done, but will Newton be motivated to put in the time to do it?

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