Detroit Lions Free Agency: GM Mayhew's Strategy Will Disappoint, and Work Anyway

With the end of the NFL lockout mere days away, it's time to look ahead to free agency despite it being late July.

Soon, the fates (and bank balances) of whichever players end up free agents will be established, and Lions fans will finally get some feedback on the many, many names they've been throwing around as possible fits for Detroit.

We've seen Martin Mayhew work through two free agency periods thus far, and they've been very different.

In 2009, Mayhew sought out spare parts just to wash away as much of the stink as possible from 2008. A collection of one-year contracts were signed, and most of those rent-a-players have been purged from the system, just as the 2008 players were.

In 2010, Mayhew and Schwartz struck immediately, signing Kyle Vanden Bosch and Nate Burleson before free agency was 12 hours old. Both players were signed to long-term deals, and both have become veteran leaders on their sides of the ball. Mayhew also brought in a cavalcade of starters by snapping up other teams' castoffs for next to nothing.

The common thread between these is likely to continue on through 2011. Namely, that Mayhew didn't spend that much money, and he didn't even so much as target the marquee free agents on the market.

Actually, while Detroit was targeting Vanden Bosch, Chicago was courting Julius Peppers, the actual marquee name in free agency.

Here is the key to Mayhew's strategy. His 2011 strategy is likely to be more similar to 2010 (striking quickly on mid-tier FAs) than 2009 (rummaging around in the bargain bin). But where Mayhew succeeds is in courting those mid-tier guys while everyone else is engaged in a bidding war for the best player available.

Mayhew knows the Lions are a longshot to sign the big names, and even if he gets them, he'll have a hard time affording them. So he's going to go after the guys who can make a difference without breaking the bank.

Sure, maybe they're not superstars (on the field, Kyle Vanden Bosch isn't Julius Peppers), but they bring something the Lions need.

How does that apply to this year?

Well, take the top three cornerbacks and linebackers in free agency, and strike them off the board.

Depending on how free agency is structured, that probably means Nnamdi Asomugha, Johnathan Joseph and Ike Taylor at cornerback. For linebackers, let's say Stephen Tulloch, Paul Posluszny and, say, Barrett Ruud.

Maybe you disagree that those are the top three at each position. That's fine, it doesn't matter who they are. The point is, those guys are going to fetch a high price, and Martin Mayhew isn't going to pay it. Strike them off the list of potential Lions.

This is not how Mayhew operates. It's easy for fans to make free agent decisions. The logic goes something like this:

1. The Lions need a cornerback.

2. Find the best cornerback on the market.

3. SIGN HIM IMMEDIATELY.

It doesn't work that way, friends. And it's disappointing, for sure. I can't deny that it would be exciting to bring Asomugha and Tulloch in to this Lions team. I can't even say that they wouldn't make the team substantially better.

But ultimately, it's the right way to run the team.

For starters, the Lions have an absurd amount of money tied up in Ndamukong Suh, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson, all selected either first or second in their respective drafts. When the CBA does come, it will have a salary cap, and the Lions won't be able to pay for those three players and a handful of top-tier free agents.

Which is fine, because there is a consistent correlation between teams that spend big in free agency and teams that don't win championships. Exhibit A is the most notorious example, the Washington Redskins.

At the time, everybody feared the Redskins and their $100 million man, Albert Haynesworth (quick shout-out to all the Lions fans who thought Haynesworth was a good idea for Detroit in 2009). The following year, they made a huge splash in taking on Donovan McNabb and a new contract.

Now, the Redskins are looking for someone—anyone—to take the two off their hands.

Less striking examples are the Chicago Bears and New York Jets. The two biggest spenders in free agency last year both made it to their respective conference championship games before losing, so it's difficult to say that they made bad moves in free agency, despite falling short in the playoffs (though the Jets actually made no improvement over their previous year's performance).

That said, it's equally difficult to find anyone outside of Chicago or New York who thinks those two teams will be better in 2011 than they were in 2010. Being a big spender in free agency means you're living on borrowed time.

The Bears in particular, unstable on offense and aging on defense, are approaching a point of Vikings-style collapse sooner rather than later. While the Peppers signing will make them a force in the short term, it will be a burdening anchor to them as he and the Bears start to decline.

Which brings us back to the Lions. The Lions are an up-and-coming team with a number of bright spots. But try to remember that Mayhew and Schwartz built it up that way (and in a relatively short time) without spending on those types of $100 million men.

Sure, it's not sexy. Signing superstars brings attention and makes your team look good. But let's run down the list of recent Super Bowl winners. When was the last time the Packers were a huge spender in free agency? The Saints? The Steelers? The Giants? The Colts? The Patriots?

Those teams are much quieter about the way their bring in their talent. They draft it, and they cultivate it.

All the talent on the Lions now follows the same trend. It was either drafted or signed as a UDFA and coached up from within (Sammie Hill, Randy Phillips, Zack Follett and coming soon, Jason Fox), signed for manageable amounts of money in free agency (Vanden Bosch and Burleson), or practically stolen from other teams for next to nothing (Alphonso Smith, Rob Sims, Lawrence Jackson, Stefan Logan, Bobby Carpenter, this list goes on for a while).

This has been the strategy thus far, and it has clearly been effective. Not only is there talent on the team, there are young players with potential all over the roster, any one of which could bud into a star in the coming years.

So tell me, even with Tulloch and Asomugha-caliber players on the market, why would the Lions spend so much money just to go against a strategy that has made them contenders for the first time in a decade?