2011 NFL Free Agency: Philadelphia Eagles' Dream Scenario
With the signing of a CBA just over the horizon, it's time to look at the Philadelphia Eagles offseason outlook for free agency for the 2011-2012 season. This is a crucial season for the Eagles who must prepare for a 3-4 year window of time in which it must compete for a deep playoff run ending with a Super bowl.
Many of my calculations will be based off of http://www.eaglescap.com/current.html. This is a great website with current salaries as well as cap impact calculations. The website assumes we are currently at a cap number of $97.7 million.
Due to the uncertainty of the CBA's details, I am operating under the assumption that there will be a $120 million dollar cap with a 90 percent floor in addition to a rookie pay scale.
The first several slides focus on methods of reducing the total cap/payroll according to data from the above website. The later half of the slides show potential player replacements/signings in free agency with estimated salaries.
Sign Michael Vick to a Long-Term Deal
1 of 6Michael Vick is apparently the face of the franchise for the next three to five years. He is currently franchise tagged at around $16 million. Signing him long-term will give him the stability he may need to pay off his debts, in addition to lowering his cap number.
I project that he will sign a four to five year deal that will make him an average of $10 million per season.
16-10= 6
97.7-6 = 91.7
Trade Kevin Kolb
2 of 6Kevin Kolb is likely to be traded for either draft compensation or players. He is a great backup but deserves the chance to start and should be traded before he walks away without compensation.
A veteran backup QB may be necessary, but Kolb's departure should free up $6.7 million.
91.7-6.7 = 85
Roster Cuts
3 of 6Some of these cuts won't free up as much money as their salaries due to dead cap space created by cutting players, but let's stick to the basic calculations.
Leonard Weaver: I love the man and have heard that he has a great locker room presence but his knee injury last season seemed too gruesome, possibly putting his career in jeopardy. (Savings: 2.6 million)
Jason Avant: This move is not because he is injured but to make space for someone who may have more of an impact. Avant has sure hands but does not often get separation. Thus, he is not great at yards after the catch. What if we could replace him with someone who is sure handed and physical like he is but who can also get YAC? (2 million)
Winston Justice: Now I actually do not think he is as bad as everyone says, but he is one of the reasons that the Eagles lost that playoff game to the Packers. He's not worth the money he makes. (3.7 million)
Jaqua Parker: A solid player for years, but he is on the wrong side of thirty for this organization and defensive end is deep in this free agency class. (3.2 million)
Mike Patterson: Both of the Eagles' defensive tackles are good, but not great. Bunkley seems to be more set up for success in the new scheme after being employed by Jim Washburn. (3.3 million)
David Akers: Like it or not, the man is gone when you draft a rookie kicker/punter in the fourth round. (3 million)
Not trying to be a nerd but follow me on this one:
85-2.6-2-3.7-3.2-3.3-3= $67.2 million (Darn TI-89's)
Honorable Mention: Joselio Hanson should be cut at $2.2 million but with passing being emphasized it's hard to find good corners. Including good—but overpriced—nickel corners.
Roster Replacements
4 of 6First, each team must sign their drafted rookies. A team usually spends $10 million a year between all of their rookie signings. With the implication of a rookie pay scale, I honestly have no clue as to what that number may be but let's say $9 million to be safe. ($9 million)
Let us now fill the voids left by our unrestricted free agents and roster cuts.
Replace Kevin Kolb with Bruce Gradkowski or other veteran backup QB—cough, Favre, cough! ($4 million)
Replace Leonard Weaver with Owen Schmitt/Stanley Havili since both are already included in the rookie payroll or current payroll.
Replace Jason Avant with Plaxico Burress. He can be had for cheaper as the wide receiver position is deep in this year's free agency class. ($3.5 million) I also like Sidney Rice here if you want an embarassment of riches for young wide receivers. Rice wouldn't cost as much as a Santonio Holmes due to his injury last season. Sidney Rice will likely make six to seven million dollars for his next contract. Rice would also offer insurance in case Desean's contract negotiations go T.O. style.
Replace Winston Justice with Tyson Clabo or Doug Free. Clabo is a better player, which means he will cost more and Atlanta is less likely to let him go. Doug Free is young, and it functions to hurt the Cowboys by stealing a great player away from them. For that reason alone, Free is the better option for the Eagles. (Clabo, $12 million or Free, $10 million)
Replace Jaqua Parker with Vernon Gholston. He's young, a pure athlete and labeled a bust so he should be cheap. Washburn can mold this young man into the stud he should have been had he been drafted by a 4-3 defense. Plus, the free agency class at defensive end is also deep. ($2.5 million)
Replace Mike Patterson with Albert Haynesworth. I know he is a pain and has baggage of litigation and possible suspensions but hopefully this will cause the Redskins to cut him. If not, I personally would be okay giving a 5th round pick for his services as long as he could negotiate his current 5.5 million dollars down a bit.
Washburn loves him, he can be a force when motivated and he will not face triple teams with the wide nine technique and Trent Cole on the end. To be conservative, I will count him as if he was traded for and negotiated down. ($4 million)
Replace David Akers with Alex Henery. Like it or not, Henery is the starter and will get paid like a fourth rounder. (Cap impact is included in the rookie payroll amount)
Resign Stewart Bradley. He's not bad and is still young and promising if he can get over the injury bug. Bradley won't get much more on free agency with his injury history. ($2 million)
Whew, okay here it goes:
67.2+9+4+3.5+10+2.5+4+2= $102.2 million
Free Agency Improvements
5 of 6With the 90 percent floor on the $120 million cap, each team must spend between $108-120 million yearly. The usually frugal Eagles will most likely splurge to push for a Super Bowl run as the team has a three to four year window with Michael Vick.
$120 million- 102.2 million payroll = $17.8 million
Nnamdi Asomugha is wanted by half of the world. Obviously he would be great, but the Eagles have a few more improvements that could be made on the defensive side of the ball.
Sign Jonathan Joseph ($10 million) or Ike Taylor ($8 million) in addition to another defensive player.
Another option is to assume that DRC will be traded for Kolb. DRC is scheduled to make only $1.5 million, so trading for DRC improves the team's RCB position while leaving significant money in place for upgrades at other positions.
With the Jim Washburn system an improvement at defensive end is needed if Gholston and Brandon Graham are not capable of starting.
At defensive end, the most reasonable two are Charles Johnson ($11 million) or Jason Babin ($8 million)
My ideal scenario includes DRC and Johnson 17.8-(11+1.5)= $5.3 million in cap space
Final Roster
6 of 6DE: Cole, Charles, Graham, Gholston, Tapp, Sapp, Hunt
DT: Bunkley, Haynesworth, Dixon, Laws
LB: Chaney, Bradley, Rolle, Clayton, Matthews, Lloyd
Safety: Allen, Jarrett, Coleman, Anderson
CB: DRC, Samuel, Hanson, Marsh, Lindley
OL: Peters, Herremans, Jackson, Watkins, Free, Howard, McGlynn, Vandervelde, Kelce, Dunlap
TE: Celek, Harbor, Ingram
WR: Jackson, Maclin, Burress, Cooper, Moss
RB: McCoy, Lewis, Havili
FB: Schmitt
K: Henery
P: Rocca
Holder: Dorenbos
QB: Vick, Gradkowski, Kafka
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