St. Louis Cardinals: 4 Reasons Why a Collapse is Imminent
I like to joke with my old college roommates that the St. Louis Cardinals have but four good players:
Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter.
That number was quickly reduced to three with the preseason injury to Wainwright that required season-ending Tommy John surgery. Carpenter's terrible start (one win and a 4.58 ERA as of May 27) all but takes that number down to two.
Throw in a contract year for Pujols and an appendectomy or two for Holliday, and we're fast on our way to seeing that number reach zero!
The Cardinals are 31-21 right now, good for first in the National League Central. Can this be maintained? The answer is absolutely not, and I'll give you four reasons why.
Injuries to Key Players
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The aforementioned injury to the Cardinals' ace Adam Wainwright looms large as the season approaches the middle stretch. It's a stroke of tough luck for St. Louis fans, but it's a huge reason why the Cards won't keep it up.
Matt Holliday has been in and out of the lineup too much to give the Cardinals any sort of consistency. Sure, when he's in there, he's great with a batting average of .349 and 6 homers and 31 RBI to boot.
But a few quick key strokes reveals that Holliday is on pace to play a mere 124 games of the 162-game season. That is far too few for a star player on a team that currently sits in first.
Without Holliday in the lineup, inexperienced players like Allen Craig and John Jay will have to try to fill out the stats he brings. They do an admirable job, but they're still very wet behind the ears and are also not named Matt Holliday.
Postscript: David Freese is out for a long period of time. I just thought that was a given, so I didn't go into much detail.
Too High of a Dependency on Lance Berkman
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I'm sorry, but Lance Berkman gets under my skin.
I'm the victim of allowing my fantasy sports activity affect my feelings about an actual player, I know, but I was dedicated to Berkman last year, especially after he left the Houston Astros for the New York Yankees.
What a huge egg he laid in the Bronx.
Berkman finished his 2010 campaign with 14 homers, 58 RBI and a .248 batting average. Clearly something was wrong.
He has bounced back beautifully (and one year too late for my liking) with 11 homers, 36 RBI and a .350 batting average. Which year was the enigma?
At age 35, there is little doubt that Berkman is nearing the end of an impressive career, but I don't see him being able to carry this momentum into the second half.
Do you really think he can hit 39 homers and 128 RBI? Because that's what he's on pace to do. If you answered yes, take off your Cardinals hat and think about it further.
Otherwise chalk this one up to reason No. 2 the Cards will falter.
Another Division Contender
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Entering the 2010 season, there was only one team in the NL Central: the St. Louis Cardinals.
We all know now that last year was the Cincinnati Reds' coming out party, legitimizing their ability to compete annually for the division crown. But other than the Reds, what team was going to beat the Cardinals?
Not Houston, that's for sure. The Chicago Cubs are always popular but for no reason whatsoever. The Pirates? Just wait for football season if the lockout can be ended, Pittsburgh (knock on wood).
That leaves only the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Brew Crew understands that this is their year to try to win the pennant and make a run in the playoffs. Prince Fielder is a free agent after the season, and it looks like Milwaukee is focused on other players instead of him.
Thus, the team loaded up for 2011, which doesn't bode will for the Cardinals as the Brewers continue to get used to one another.
After yet another awkward injury in professional sports, Zach Greinke is kicking off the rust and pitching well. Shaun Marcum is everything the Brewers could've asked for and more. There is no doubt that these two former AL pitchers love getting that free out at the end of every batting order.
The Cardinals must overcome their own issues, beat out the defending division champs, and keep an eye on a new bona fide foe in order to make it to the playoffs. I don't see it happening.
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Amazing Team Stats That Simply Can't Last
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Pop Quiz: What major league team leads the league in runs scored? No, not the Yankees or Red Sox. Not the Phillies or Giants.
It's the St. Louis Cardinals.
At 260 runs, they are in the same territory as the juggernauts in New York and Boston. Is that really sustainable? Where are these runs coming from? I was amazed when I saw the statistic, but it's true.
The reason the Yankees and Red Sox can sustain this kind of scoring and the Cardinals can't is because of how each team is built. Not only are the Yankees built to hit (and hit a lot), their stadium is conducive to high scoring as well.
The Red Sox spent millions of dollars rounding out their offensive blitz. But the Cardinals are structured to hold teams to a low number of runs and capitalize at the plate when the time comes.
They are doing the opposite right now.
The Cardinals are in the middle of the pack with runs allowed at 202. I expect to see their runs scored to drop to the league average, so unless their pitching can back off its current pace, the Cardinals' run differential will drop significantly from the current plus-58, which is tops in the majors.
The pitching staff needs to step up now. I still think it's a year too early for most of them, though.
Wait 'til Next Year
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As a Braves fan, I remember that great old saying, "What 'til next year!" It grew in popularity during Dale Murphy's playing days.
Lies. I'm way too young to "remember" that, but I've seen pictures.
Regardless, I think St. Louis Cardinal fans need to learn how to use the phrase because it's going to happen. Unlucky injuries, the inevitable drop-off of Lance Berkman, the rise of the Milwaukee Brewers and unsustainable team stats are too much to overcome.
There are a ton of reasons to think that another group of players is ready to make a string of runs toward the postseason, though. Colby Rasmus has arrived, Jaime Garcia is for real, Allen Craig and John Jay are fun to watch.
Enjoy the ride while it lasts, St. Louis. And be sure to research the market carefully for a first baseman at the end of the year. It's been a while since you've had to do that.
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