MLB Power Rankings: Re-Ranking the Cleveland Indians Roster Through 40 Games
Way back in the beginning of April when I ranked every player on the Indians roster (which you can see here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/654001-mlb-power-rankings-ranking-the-2011-cleveland-indians-roster), little did any of us know we were looking at what would soon become the surprise, breakout team of 2011. Sure, there was significant potential for the Tribe, but who would've thought we'd have the best record in the majors 40 games into the season?
Despite the awesome record and play the Indians have recorded so far this year, there are still weak points on the roster. Sure, Asdrubal Cabrera and Travis Hafner have been on fire this year, but who is the worst player on the roster? How many players should be replaced in the near future? These are all questions that we should start thinking about.
Well, enough dribble from me. Let's get down to business and rank the Indians from 25th to first.
Note: I only rank the active roster. That means that Grady Sizemore, who was just placed on the DL, isn't in these rankings and Travis Buck is. Since I did all of the work for these rankings before Sizemore was put on the DL, I can say that he would've been fifth, above Carlos Santana and below Michael Brantley.
No. 25: Chad Durbin
1 of 25
Last Ranking: Seven
I gave him a high ranking and deference for being a veteran last time around, but truth is, Chad Durbin just doesn't have it anymore. His ERA is at 6.14 (60 ERA+), his WHIP is 1.568 and he has 4.3 BB/9. His pitching is wildly ineffective and the Indians would be better off without him.
No. 24: Justin Germano
2 of 25
Last Ranking: 24
I wasn't on Justin Germano before the season, and I'm still not. His ERA is 6.17 (60 ERA+) and his WHIP is 1.714. While his 3.9 BB/9 is only below average, his 3.9 SO/9 is abysmal. One of the moves the Tribe should make going forward is taking these two out of the bullpen. I'd rather see Frank Herrmann back up in the majors (10.1 SO/9, 3.00 SO:BB in AAA) or Alex White shifted to long relief when Mitch Talbot returns than any more outings from Durbin or Germano. The Indians are competing now and can't afford anymore bad outings from these two.
No. 23: Carlos Carrasco
3 of 25
Last Ranking: 19
Carlos Carrasco is one of the top young players in the Indians organization, but that doesn't change the fact that he's been struggling mightily this year. He has an ERA of 5.29 (69 ERA+), a 1.500 WHIP and only 5.3 SO/9. He always struck people out in the minors (8.0 SO/9), but it has never translated to the majors. He may be the future, but if the Indians stay in contention, they can't afford to have Carrasco pitching this poorly every fifth day.
No. 22: Shelley Duncan
4 of 25
Last Ranking: 13
The best value Shelley Duncan can give to the Indians is his pinch hitting; he's a good bat off of the bench. Unfortunately, there isn't much else Duncan can do. Everyone knows he's not great on defense, but his .244/.277/.400 slash line leaves a lot to be desired. His .677 OPS (94 OPS+) is basically average, but he strikes out far too much (14 in only 47 plate appearances) and has only one walk this year. The Indians would be better off with someone younger than Duncan who can play good defense in addition to having average offense.
No. 21: Austin Kearns
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Last Ranking: 14
Austin Kearns is a great defensive outfielder; there's no argument there. The problem is, he can't hit. His slash line is .160/.250/.200, his OPS is .450 (33 OPS+), and he has 16 strikeouts in only 56 plate appearances. On the year, Kearns only has 10 total bases. The Indians should replace Duncan on the roster first because of Kearns' value on defense, but at some point, Manny Acta needs to stop writing this automatic out's name on the lineup card altogether.
No. 20: Adam Everett
6 of 25
Last Ranking: 23
Adam Everett moved up in these rankings, but it's more thanks to others' failings than his successes. He's been good at the plate (.333/.429/.333) and currently holds a .762 OPS (126 OPS+), but the sample size is too small (only 30 plate appearances). Everett's best offensive season was 2004, when he had a .273/.317/.385 slash line with a .703 OPS (80 OPS+). What are the odds that he suddenly became an above average hitter? Add in that his defense has been below average this year (-0.1 dWAR), and it's easy to see that the Indians wouldn't be missing much if they replaced Adam Everett.
No. 19: Alex White
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Last Ranking: Not Ranked
I was so happy when the Indians called up Alex White. I got to see him pitch numerous times at AA Akron last year and could tell he was something special. He's been decent in his two major league starts, posting a 3.75 ERA (99 ERA+), a 1.583 WHIP and 7.5 SO/9, but his 4.5 BB/9 is holding him back. White might not be quite ready to hold down a spot in the rotation, but he could easily come out of the bullpen (replacing Durbin/Germano as the long-relief man) when Mitch Talbot is ready to come off the DL.
No. 18: Joe Smith
8 of 25
Last Ranking: Not Ranked
Joe Smith may have started the year on the DL, but he's made up for lost time. Since being activated on April 15, Smith has a 3.00 ERA (126 ERA+), a 1.333 WHIP, 10.0 SO/9 and only 2.0 BB/9. The sidearmer has been a very valuable asset in the bullpen and should continue to build on his early success as the season moves on.
No. 17: Travis Buck
9 of 25
Last Ranking: 22
Originally, Travis Buck wasn't going to be on this list, but Grady Sizemore's DL trip puts him back on the active roster. Before being demoted, Buck was playing great defense (0.4 dWAR) but not hitting. His .241/.267/.345 slash line, .611 OPS (77 OPS+) and seven strikeouts with zero walks left a lot to be desired. Luckily, Buck spent his time in Columbus well, posting a .333/.432/.583 slash line, a 1.016 OPS and 11 walks to go with his 11 strikeouts. Buck has been just as good defensively as Austin Kearns this year and is hitting better; hopefully, we'll see Travis Buck in left field in the near future.
No. 16: Lou Marson
10 of 25
Last Ranking: 12
Lou Marson is known for his defense, but his bat has been more valuable to the Indians this year. His defense has been average (0.0 dWAR), but his .303/.351/.455 slash line and .806 OPS (133 OPS+) has been good enough to get a 0.4 oWAR. Right now, Lou Marson is everything the Indians need in a backup catcher; he is solid on defense and is hitting well when giving Carlos Santana a breather. There isn't much to complain about with Lou Marson this year.
No. 15: Rafael Perez
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Last Ranking: 11
At first glance, there doesn't appear to be anything wrong with Rafael Perez. He currently owns a 1.26 ERA (295 ERA+) and a 1.047 WHIP. He's been a valuable set-up man and typically pulls his weight.
Why is he so low, then? It's because his SO/9 is only 6.3 and his BB/9 is 3.8. From 2006-2008, Perez had 9.8 SO/9 and only 2.7 BB/9. From 2009-2011, though, he's only had 5.7 SO/9 and 4.1 BB/9. Add in that his BABIP in 2011 is a very low .225—meaning he's been pretty lucky this year—and you see someone who could be in trouble down the road. Perez needs to get everything back together if he wants to be successful for the entire 2011 campaign.
No. 14: Chris Perez
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Last Ranking: Four
Like his fellow Perez bullpen mate, Chris Perez has been great on the surface this year but has some major flaws. His 2.81 ERA (131 ERA+), 1.125 WHIP and 10 saves have been great, but his 5.6 SO/9 is a big problem. Coming into 2011, Perez had 9.5 SO/9 and 4.3 BB/9. He's always had trouble with walks but made up for it by striking out more than a batter per inning. Thus, it'd be wrong to complain about his 3.9 BB/9 (since it's below his career average), but when he only has 5.6 SO/9, there are issues. Hopefully, Perez will regain his punchout form soon and move back up in these rankings.
No. 13: Fausto Carmona
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Last Ranking: 15
Since his Opening Day debacle, Fausto Carmona has rebounded very well. Not counting Opening Day, Carmona's ERA stands at 2.56 and his WHIP at 1.030. His season stats (3.94 ERA (92 ERA+), 1.180
WHIP) aren't bad at all, and he's been a big part of why the Indians are in contention. His low strikeout rate still concerns me (5.6 SO/9), but that's what Fausto Carmona is. His career average is 5.5 SO/9, so there's no reason to expect him to strikeout more batters. The good news is he isn't walking people in 2011 (2.6 BB/9). It's unlikely that Carmona will keep pitching this well, but as long as he keeps his walks down, there's no reason that he won't be effective for the Tribe throughout 2011.
No. 12: Orlando Cabrera
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Last Ranking: Six
The veteran, winning presence that Orlando Cabrera has brought to the Indians this year has been irreplaceable. His actual production on the field has been replaceable, however. His .273 batting average is great, but his .295 on-base percentage, .360 slugging percentage, .654 OPS (89 OPS+) and 19 strikeouts to four walks are all problems. Plus, his defense (-0.1 dWAR) has continued to slip this year. I've written about what I think they should do with Cabrera before (you can see it here: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/695392-cleveland-indians-orlando-cabrera-shouldnt-be-a-roadblock-to-jason-kipnis), but the gist is, I think they should call up Jason Kipnis and move Orlando Cabrera to utility infielder. Cabrera's a great clubhouse guy, but he isn't a great baseball player anymore.
No. 11: Vinnie Pestano
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Last Ranking: 20
The thing to remember about relievers is that they tend to be inconsistent. One year they're down, another they're up. Building a successful bullpen typically comes down to dumb luck.
This year, Vinnie Pestano has been Cleveland's lucky find. He was a 20th round draft pick just five years ago, and now he holds a 1.84 ERA (201 ERA+) and 1.023 WHIP in the majors. He's been fairly lucky so far (.235 BABIP), but his 9.8 SO/9 and 3.7 BB/9 say that Pestano is earning a lot of his success. While his ERA will probably end up around 3.00, is that such a bad thing? Vinnie Pestano is a critical member of the 2011 Cleveland Indians.
No. 10: Matt LaPorta
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Last Ranking: 10
When I did these rankings before the season, I ranked LaPorta 10th, saying that he would either exceed that expectation or be far short. Turns out option three was correct; he stayed in the 10th spot. LaPorta hasn't been horrible this year, but he hasn't been great either. His .248/.328/.450 slash line leaves a lot to be desired, but his .778 OPS (124 OPS+) isn't bad at all. He's started striking out too much recently (24 compared to 12 walks), but the fact is, Matt LaPorta is more than a serviceable major league first baseman. He's only 26 and should continue growing throughout the season.
#9 Josh Tomlin
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Last Ranking: 18
All Josh Tomlin has done this year is post a 2.70 ERA (135 ERA+) and a 0.857 WHIP, going 4-1. He may not be overpowering, but there's something about Tomlin that lets him win. He's another one of the surprises that has the Indians in first place. His success is almost certainly not sustainable (.170 BABIP), but what's also almost certain is Tomlin will find a way to keep doing well in 2011. He may only have 5.0 SO/9, but if he keeps his walks down (1.7 BB/9), he should be just fine. As long as the Indians don't delude themselves that he is anything more than a fourth or a fifth starter, the Tribe have a keeper in Josh Tomlin.
#8 Jack Hannahan
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Last Ranking: 9
In the month of April, Jack Hannahan was a major contributor to the Indians surging to a great start, posting a .273/.349/.481 slash line with a .829 OPS. In May, however, Hannahan's gone cold. His May stats are frightening: .172/.294/.172 with a .467 OPS. Please notice that his average and slugging are equal; he doesn't have an extra base hit in May. His season stats of a .245/.333/.396 slash line with a .730 OPS (111 OPS+) and 23 strikeouts to 14 walks isn't bad, nor is his above average defense (0.1 dWAR). The key, however, is that Hannahan is still not a long term answer. He's filled in nicely, but when Lonnie Chisenhall is ready (hopefully soon), the third base job should be his. Hannahan's been great but shouldn't hold the job for much longer.
#7 Tony Sipp
19 of 25
Last Ranking: 8
Tony Sipp has proven he belongs in the back end of the Indians bullpen this year, posting a 1.50 ERA (246 ERA+) and a 0.889 WHIP so far. He's finally controlled his walks (3.0 BB/9, compared to 5.6 BB/9 in the past two seasons), but his strikeouts have fallen as well. In 2011, Sipp only has 6.5 SO/9, compared to 10.2 SO/9 in the past two seasons and 11.7 SO/9 in his minor league career. Sipp has benefited greatly from luck this year (.184 BABIP), but as long as he gets his strikeout rate up, Sipp will weather the luck correction well and keep being successful in 2011.
#6 Justin Masterson
20 of 25
Last Ranking: 16
In 2011, Justin Masterson has finally made good on his potential. The 26-year old has posted a 2.73 ERA (133 ERA+) and a 1.272 WHIP so far with 6.8 SO/9 and 2.9 BB/9. Masterson had 7.4 SO/9 in the majors from 2006-2010 and 7.5 SO/9 in the minors, so there's hope he could strike a few more batters out in the future. Even better news is that Masterson has been slightly unlucky (.318 BABIP) this year. One could make the argument that Masterson's numbers should be even better even though they're already great. He isn't a real ace, but if Justin Masterson is your second or third starter, you're in pretty good shape. The Indians rotation is far from done, but with players like Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin, there's real hope that they could assemble an arsenal like the Oakland A's in the near future.
#5 Carlos Santana
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Last Ranking: 2
It's possible we all wanted too much out of Carlos Santana too soon. His .220 batting average is obviously bad, but paired with a .345 on-base percentage, .382 slugging percentage, a .727 OPS (111 OPS+) and 28 strikeouts to 24 walks, it's not bad at all. Considering his bad luck (.242 BABIP), Carlos Santana has played just fine this year. His 0.9 oWAR and 0.1 dWAR show that he is an all around player that will turn things around and help the Indians contend in 2011 and in the future. Sure, it's been a rough road so far this year, but Santana's still succeeding anyway. Great days are ahead for Santana, the Indians and their fans.
#4 Michael Brantley
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Last Ranking: 17
When I ranked Brantley 17th at the start of the season, I had high hopes for him but wanted to see him prove himself first. Well, Brantley has more than proved himself. His .298/.372/.412 slash line, .784 OPS (128 OPS+) and only 15 walks to 15 strikeouts has been great. He's already posted a 1.1 oWAR to go with a 0.3 dWAR. Brantley's 1.4 WAR is tied for 26th among all hitters this year and is 0.4 higher than CC Sabathia. Maybe, just maybe, Mark Shapiro and the Indians know what they're doing.
#3 Travis Hafner
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Last Ranking: 5
When did Travis Hafner become Pronk again? He's been elite this year, posting a .340/.403/.528 slash line with a .932 OPS (169 OPS+). With Hafner playing like he did from 2004-2006, the Indians have a force in the middle of the lineup for other teams to contend with. His .408 BABIP says that he'll regress a bit as the season passes, but even if Hafner is "only" hitting around .300, he'll still be a great player. The Indians are winning and Pronk is back in full force; life is good.
#2 Shin-Soo Choo
24 of 25
Last Ranking: 1
I know what you're thinking: really? Shin-Soo Choo at number two? He's only batting .222 with a .301 on-base percentage and a .354 slugging percentage. His OPS only stands at .655 (90 OPS+) and his oWAR is 0.3. How can you possibly put him at number two?
Simply put, Shin-Soo Choo is proving just how great of a defensive player he's evolved into. In 2011, the only player in the entirety of the major leagues his 1.1 dWAR trails is Denard Span in. This comes after being tied for 26th in 2010 and tied for 54th in 2009. Luckily for the Indians, Choo's 0.3 oWAR and 1.1 dWAR are the perfect complement to Michael Brantley's 1.1 oWAR and 0.3 dWAR. Between these two, the Indians have their bases covered. Add in that Choo's offense will come around (his worst slash line in the last three years is .300/.394/.484; do you really think that he's going to stay like this all year) and he's still an elite player.
#1 Asdrubal Cabrera
25 of 25
Last Ranking: 3
Coming into this year, the question was whether or not Asdrubal Cabrera could regain his 2008-2009 form. I thought he could, but I never imagined he could play this well. His .288/.353/.484 slash line with a .837 OPS (141 OPS+) is hardly what you'd expect out of the shortstop position. While his defense is average at best (0.0 dWAR), as long as he's hitting like this (1.7 oWAR), I don't care. His BABIP is .304, meaning that his fast start isn't just a byproduct of luck. The truth is that this could be the real Asdrubal Cabrera. At 25, he's still maturing and getting better. As of right now, Asdrubal Cabrera has matured into the best player on the Cleveland Indians.
