Detroit Lions: Why the Lions Will Not Make the Playoffs in 2011

The Detroit Lions Bleacher Report page has been swamped by optimism. With the post-draft grades and Pro Bowl predictions, you start to get the impression that the Lions are going to be, at the very least, making a deep playoff run in 2011.

The idea for this article arose when reading comments on another I wrote recently. One avid fan criticised me for insinuating that the Dallas Cowboys would be making the playoffs, while the Detroit Lions would not. This got me thinking. Are the Lions really going to make the playoffs two seasons after posting a winless season? Read on to hear my opinion.

First of all, we need to account for the holes in Detroit's roster. Although they are set at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and the defensive line—and the linebacker corps is passable given the strength of the defensive line—work still needs to be done in the secondary, and more importantly the offensive line.

Offensive Line

I have seen a few articles talking down Detroit's need here, but that is really not true. The Lions currently have one starter on the offensive line who either plays at an acceptable level or is not at the end of his contract. That is Rob Sims.

As for Jeff Backus, Dom Raiola and Stephen Peterman: They're all over 30 and about to see a drop in their performance if it has not happened already.

The final starter is Gosder Cherlius. While he cannot be labelled a bust quite yet, he has certainly not played consistently well in either the run game or the pass game yet.

Last season, the Lions were able to take pressure of their offensive line in the passing game by using almost exclusively a three step drop offense that very rarely pushed the ball deep. This gave opposing defensive lines very little time to get after the quarterback, and played into the strengths of Shaun Hill.

However, with Matthew Stafford back under center, the Lions will take more shots downfield, which will sadly highlight the weakness of most of the Lions' offensive line. This will lead to more sacks and plenty of criticism for the iron man on the left side of the line. I doubt he will get his new contract.

Even more problematic was the line's weakness in run blocking.

This cannot be hidden by anyone short of Adrian Peterson or Barry Sanders, and will be the primary reason for a disappointing rookie season for Mikel Leshoure. He will be primarily running up the gut, and the Lions interior has struggled to create lanes of late. Peterman is the best of the bunch, but is injured even more than Stafford. Raiola is too small, and Sims lacks the lower body strength to create serious push against defensive tackles.

While Corey Hilliard came in and improved this late in the season, he struggled in pass protection one on one and was penalized too much.

The weakness of the offensive line will handicap what looks to be one of the best collections of offensive skills players in the NFL. Best—and especially Leshoure—will struggle to run the ball because of the weak run blocking of the guards and center, and Stafford will not be given enough time and space in the pocket to stretch the field with his fast corps of receivers.

Secondary

It is not the most pressing need, mainly because of the youth at the position. Louis Delmas, Amari Spievey, Alphonso Smith and Aaron Berry are all young and have plenty of time to develop. However, there is a lack of bona fide talent in all of the starters except Delmas. For that reason, there will need to be an infusion of talent somewhere along the line before the Lions can contend for the Super Bowl.

The need to improve immediately is fortunately not huge.

The quality of the defensive line helps the cornerbacks in coverage a great deal, and this can only improve now that Nick Fairley is in the rotation. This will take the pressure off the young secondary.

Despite the mitigating factors, with the Lions secondary the way it currently stands, they are going to be vulnerable to teams with good quarterbacks and deep receiving corps like the New Orleans Saints, the Atlanta Falcons, the San Diego Chargers and the Green Bay Packers (who they play twice next season). I do not think the Lions defense will be able to stop top teams from passing on them at will, especially late in the game when the pass rush will be less ferocious.

Experience

The final problem is experience.

Last season the Lions gave away plenty of close games through lack of experience in winning games, and just plain lack of experience. The Lions have a young team, and they have not had to close out games much of late. Because of this, I do not think they will be able to put teams to the sword the requisite 10 times to make the playoffs. Especially as 10 of their games this season are against winning teams last year, and the Dallas Cowboys will be a playoff contender as well.

Schwartz's inexperience as a head coach and the team's inexperience playing at a high level will come back to bite them late in games again in 2011. However, another year of being competitive should complete the process, and by the time 2012 swings around, the Lions should finally become a team that knows how to win.

Conclusion

For these reasons, I do not see the Lions winning more than six or seven games this season, and will once again miss out on the playoffs.

However, this bad news comes with a silver lining: Once again, the Lions will be picking in the top 15 of the draft. This will allow them to hopefully pick up one of the left tackles, in what looks to be a draft stacked with talent in that position. They should also be able to draft standout center Mike Brewster in the second round to fix their offensive line.

With a new left tackle, Sims, Brewster, and two from the pool of John Fox, Corey Hilliard, Gosder Cherlius and Johnny Culbreath manning the right side of the line, the Lions should finally be able to pound the rock and protect Stafford consistently in the pocket when he looks to air it out.

Wouldn't that be marvellous.