MLB 2011 First-Year Player Draft: The Ideal Draft Strategy for the Texas Rangers

The MLB 2011 First-Year Player Draft field is being touted as one of the richest in terms of baseball talent in recent memory.

Top college hurlers such as UCLA's Gerrit Cole, Virginia's Danny Hultzen, and Texas' Taylor Jungmann abound, as well as elite high school arms like Dylan Bundy and Taylor Guerrieri. This draft is loaded with pitching talent that should allow teams to stockpile arms over the course of the 50 rounds of draft picks.

Not only are there elite pitchers available, but Rice's 3B Anthony Rendon and high school outfielder Bubba Starling headline a talented crop of position players who will compete with the arms for high draft pick status.

As far as the Texas Rangers are concerned, they won't be able to cash in on the top names in the draft, as their strong finish in 2010 moved them down in the overall selection order. They also forfeited their top pick at number 26 to the Red Sox, in order to sign Type-A free agent Adrian Beltre to play third base. As part of the same signing, they also forfeited their number 40 pick to Boston.

Thankfully, not all hope was lost, as the Rangers were able to recoup two draft slots at numbers 33 and 37 from the Phillies as compensation for losing their own Type-A free agent Cliff Lee in the off-season. Following the 37th pick, they won't make another selection until number 83 in the second round.

In order to assess the Rangers' needs and determine a sound strategy for the 2011 draft, let's take a look at their 2010 draft results, some of their top prospects already in the system, and some options that they might have as they prepare to delve into the talented pool of players represented in this year's first-year player draft. 

Baseball America's Top 10 Ranger Prospects Pre-2011

Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

ANAHEIM, CA - JULY 11: U.S. Futures All-Star Tanner Scheppers #26 of the Texas Rangers throws a pitch during the 2010 XM All-Star Futures Game at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on July 11, 2010 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images)

When evaluating the ideal draft strategies for a franchise, it is prudent to examine the upper echelon of the prospects throughout their minor league system to determine where their needs lie.

Most of the top prospects within the Ranger system are still young and a few years away from making an impact in Arlington, but many experts agree that the team possesses one of the top farm systems in baseball. Of the highest regarded prospects on the farm, only Scheppers (24) and Kirkman (24) are above double-A.

The Rangers are stocked with talent in the lower levels, however. Martin Perez and Robbie Erlin are highly-regarded lefties who have tantalized with their massive talents.

Texas' infield, though set for now, holds bright hopes for the future with Profar, Sardinas and Olt primed to make serious impacts in a few years.

Engel Beltre, while significantly talented, has recently had character questions arise, following his bizarre altercation with fans in which he threw a trash can at fans after a game-winning home run. He is currently serving a 15-game suspension for the incident. Beltre was recently joined at double-A Frisco by electric OF, Cuban defector Leonys Martin. 

According to Baseball America, the Rangers' Top 10 prospects prior to the 2011 season are:

1.	Martin Perez, LHP
2.	Jurickson Profar, SS
3.	Tanner Scheppers, RHP
4.	Robbie Erlin, LHP
5.	Engel Beltre, OF
6.	Michael Kirkman, LHP
7.	Mike Olt, 3B
8.	Luis Sardinas, SS
9.	Jake Skole, OF
10.	Miguel de los Santos, LHP

2010 Rangers' Draft Selections

In 2010, the Rangers had a fruitful draft, owning four of the first 50 selections. This year, they don't have the same luxury, since they forfeited numerous draft picks as compensation for free agent signings in the offseason. Texas will only have two picks in the first 50 slots as a result of losing those draft choices.

Here is a look at the results of the Rangers' draft last June. The team drafted 25 high school players and 28 college players. There were 31 pitchers selected, five catchers, 10 outfielders and seven infielders.

Round	Ovl #		Player Name	Pos	Age							Drafted From
1	15		Jake Skole	CF	18							Blessed Trinity (Roswell,GA)
1	22		Kellin Deglan	C	18							R.E. Mountain (Langley,BC)
1	45		Luke Jackson	P	18							Calvary Christian Academy (Fort Lauderdale,FL)
1	49		Mike Olt	3B	21							University of Connecticut
2	72		Cody Buckel	P	18							Royal (Simi Valley,CA)
3	103		Jordan Akins	RF	18							Union Grove (McDonough,GA)
4	136		Drew Robinson	SS	18							Silverado (Las Vegas,NV)
5	166		Justin Grimm	P	21							University of Georgia
6	196		Brett Nicholas	C	21							University of Missouri
7	226		Jimmy Reyes	P	21							Elon University
8	256		Jonathan Roof	SS	21							Michigan State University
9	286		Zach Osborne	P	22							University of Louisiana at Lafayette
10	316		Jared Hoying	SS	21							University of Toledo
11	346		Christopher Hanna	P	18							Stratford (Goose Creek,SC)
12	376		Josh Richmond	RF	21							University of Louisville
13	406		Andrew Clark	1B	22							University of Louisville
14	436		Nick Tepesch	P	21							University of Missouri
15	466		Ryan Rodebaugh	P	21							Kennesaw State University
16	496		Ryan Strausborger	CF	22							Indiana State University
17	526		Anthony Haase	P	20							Cochise College
18	556		Garrett Buechele	3B	20							University of Oklahoma
19	586		Brett Weibley	P	21							Kent State University
20	616		Sam Wilson	P	18							Eldorado (Albuquerque,NM)
21	646		Joe Van Meter	P	21							Virginia Commonwealth University
22	676		Ben Rowen	P	21							Virginia Tech
23	706		Andres Perez-Lobo	P	18							Columbus (Miami,FL)
24	736		Jacob Cole	P	18							Sahuaro (Tucson,AZ)
25	766		Kendall Radcliffe	CF	17							Morgan Park (Chicago,IL)
26	796		Chase Johnson	P	18							Fallbrook (Fallbrook,CA)
27	826		Alexander Claudio	P	18							Isabel Flores (Juncos,PR)
28	856		John Kukuruda	P	18							East Nicolaus (Trowbridge,CA)
29	886		Trae Davis	P	18							Mexia (Mexia,TX)
30	916		Brian Ragira	CF	18							Martin (Arlington,TX)
31	946		Justin Earls	P	22							University of Georgia
32	976		Steven McKinnon	P	18							Cowichan Secondary (Duncan,BC)
33	1006		Matthew Hill	P	21							Georgia Perimeter College
34	1036		Kevin Rodland	SS	22							University of Nevada
35	1066		John Lieske	P	18							Harlem (Loves Park,IL)
36	1096		Jason Kudlock	OF	22							Cal State Bakersfield
37	1126		John Pustay	CF	18							Pine Creek (Colorado Springs,CO)
38	1156		Carson Vitale	C	21							Creighton University
39	1186		Ryan Woolley	P	22							University of Alabama-Birmingham
40	1216		Travis Meiners	CF	22							Dallas Baptist University
41	1246		Colby Killian	P	22							Emporia State University
42	1276		Kevin Johnson	P	22							University of Cincinnati
43	1306		Christopher Roglen	RF	18							Rocky Mountain (Fort Collins,CO)
44	1336		Shawn Stuart	P	21							Merced College
45	1366		Johnathan Moore	C	22							Houston Baptist University
46	1396		Daryl Norris	P	19							Fairhope (Fairhope,AL)
47	1426		Dan Ward	P	18							Garfield Heights (Garfield Heights,OH)
48	1456		Forrest Koumas	P	17							Lugoff Elgin (Lugoff,SC)
49	1486		Juan Gomes	C	18							Southridge (Miami,FL)
50	1516		Trevor Teykl	P	18							Kempner (Sugar Land,TX)

Draft results table courtesy of Baseballcube.com

Rangers' 2011 Draft Slots

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

PHOENIX, AZ - APRIL 25: Starting pitcher Cliff Lee #33 of the Philadelphia Phillies pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the Major League Baseball game at Chase Field on April 25, 2011 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Diamondbacks defeated the Philli

First Round

- Forfeited the No. 26 pick to Boston as compensation for signing free agent Adrian Beltre

- Received the No. 33 pick from Philadelphia as compensation for the Phillies signing Cliff Lee

Compensation Round A

- Received the No. 37 pick from Philadelphia as compensation for the Phillies signing Cliff Lee

- Forfeited the No.40 pick to Boston as compensation for signing free agent Adrian Beltre 

- Forfeited the No. 54 Pick to San Diego as compensation for signing free agent Yorvit Torrealba

Second Round

 - No. 83

Third Round

 - No. 113

Compensation Round B

 - No Picks

Fourth Round 

- No. 144

Fifth Round

- No. 174

Sixth Round

- No. 204

Seventh Round

- No. 234

Eighth Round

- No. 264

Ninth Round

- No. 294

10th Round

- No. 324

The draft will continue through 50 rounds or until each of the 30 teams passes on making a selection.

Rangers' First Round Options

The Rangers, since they will not have a draft pick until No. 33 this year, will have to opt for either a diamond in the rough hurler who falls to them at this point in the first round, possibly a risky option due to injury history, or a superior athlete who they believe can transform into a well-rounded baseball player due to his athleticism.

They'll miss out on the elite players in the draft, but will have to be savvy in order to fortify their system and find the next star who will ascend to the big leagues in the next few seasons. With no chances at the Gerrit Coles, Anthony Rendons or Bubba Starlings of the draft, the Rangers will have to rely on the quality of their scouting and maybe a little luck to succeed in the 2011 draft. Thankfully, as we have seen over the years, baseball stars come from many various levels of the draft—they're certainly not all first-rounders.  

According to Baseball America's MLB draft experts:

33. RANGERS (Jim Callis): "Expect Texas to grab the best remaining athlete on the board at this point. Even with Fisher and Nimmo gone, that leaves Miami-Dade JC outfielder Brian Goodwin, Farragut HS (Knoxville, Tenn.) catcher/third baseman Nicky Delmonico, New Trier HS (Winnetka, Ill.) outfielder Charlie Tilson and Central Catholic HS (Modesto, Calif.) outfielder Billy Flamion. Assuming the Rangers believe he can remain in center field, their pick is Goodwin, who wouldn't have been eligible for the 2011 draft had he not transferred from North Carolina."

Compensation Round A Options

Virgina's Danny Hultzen

Since it is widely expected that the Rangers will opt for a top athlete like Goodwin or Brandon Nimmo with their first-round pick, they may look to find a hurler with their next pick which comes to them only a few slots later at No. 37, in Compensation Round A.

There may be some quality arms still available at that point; someone like Zach Cone of Georgia or high schooler Tyler Beede. However, the Rangers realize that left-handed pitching is an asset in their home ballpark, so they may hope to load up on LH talent if there is some available to them at pick 37. 

Virginia's Danny Hultzen and Georgia Tech's Jed Bradley figure to be gone by then, but Texas could hope to go after high schoolers Daniel Norris or Henry Owens and, if they're gone, potentially Gonzaga's Ryan Carpenter. Thankfully the Rangers have a stock of highly-regarded LH arms in their system already, with Martin Perez headlining the crop, and with Robbie Erlin not far behind.

Of course, left-handed pitchers, while desirable, aren't absolutely imperative so, if a promising right-handed arm falls to the Rangers, they'll likely opt for him. There are raw, but significantly potential-laden, arms like 6'8" high school hurler Hawtin Buchanan that teams may be willing to take a chance on.

It's not likely that the Rangers will seek too many middle infielders high in the draft since they have Elvis Andrus currently manning SS, and have uber-talented infielders Jurickson Profar and Luis Sardinas progressing through the minors.

However, if a superior athlete falls into your lap, you're often willing to select him, regardless of his position.

Options Further Down in the Draft

Stanford's Brett Mooneyham

Following their two picks at number 33 and 37, the Rangers won't select again until No. 83 in the second round, No. 113 in the third round, then No. 144 in the fourth, and every 30th slot after that.

With few draft picks high in the selection process, the Rangers will need to rely on being savvy and potentially other teams passing on highly regarded prospects due to either injury concerns or doubts about signability.

This is where teams need to be creative and intelligent, scouting for tools rather than finished products. If you can find superior athletes who are maybe a little rough around the edges, you jump at the opportunity and count on your minor league coaching staffs to turn those diamonds in the rough into well-rounded baseball players.

The same philosophy can be applied to pitching. Clearly, the elite pitchers will be gone, but if you can find hurlers with impressive arms who possibly project well as they mature, you can take a chance, then strive to turn them into polished pitchers.

Arms like Louisville's Tony Zych or El Paso high schooler Ricardo Jacquez may intrigue teams with their power arms.

Another pitcher with potential who has yet to harness his abilities fully is Stanford lefty Brett Mooneyham. Though he is currently out for the year with a finger injury, his large 6'5" frame and left arm have intrigued scouts for a few years.