Detroit Lions: Predicting 2011 Statistics for Lions' Offensive Players

With a lockout still looming, and nothing but uncertainty going forward into what figures to be a chaotic free agency period, it seems to me like it might be a good time to start talking about fantasy football.

Of course, this isn't really about fantasy football in the strictest sense. It's about predicting the effectiveness of the Detroit Lions' 2011 offense.

It's not my fault it happens to have considerable fantasy implications, so just use them as you wish. But don't blame me if these projections lead you to inevitable fantasy ruin.

Also, I will be accounting only for the players expected to have a major role in the Lions' offense this year. It's entirely possible that Tim Toone busts out in preseason and becomes the 2011 edition of Mike Furrey, but I'm not going to count on it.

If you're playing Fantasy Football this year, you probably shouldn't either. Here are some better ideas.

Quarterbacks

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DETROIT - DECEMBER 05: Matthew Stafford #9 and Shaun Hill #14 of the Detroit Lions watch the pregame warm-up prior to the start of the game against the Chicago Bears at Ford Field on December 5, 2010 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Image

Matthew Stafford: 13 GS, 62.5% completion, 3,350 yards, 32 TD, 19 INT, 17 sacks, 91.0 passer rating

Shaun Hill: 3 GS, 60.5% completion, 700 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT, 4 sacks, 86.5 passer rating

You might be curious about this. The fact that Shaun Hill is starting three games here would seem to indicate that I'm predicting another injury for Matthew Stafford.

Well, yes. That's true. I'm not one of those who believes Stafford's early injury trouble is enough to derail his career, but it's hard to argue that the kid has bad luck. I figure he suffers something minor late in the season, like an ankle sprain, and Hill has to sub a few games.

For a minor injury, Stafford would most likely want to play through it. But since he's tried doing that the past two seasons and ended up getting himself knocked out for longer, I'm guessing he gets red-lighted if it happens this year.

As far as Stafford's stats, you'll notice that they all fall between average and above-average. The kid is good, and he's entering his third year, but he has less than a season's worth of games played under his belt. In other words, he's still a rookie in terms of game experience.

Stafford will have some shaky moments this season. His inexperience and his "gunslinger" style make him a prime candidate for a couple of three-interception games. However, that same style and his incredible arm strength will result in number of "how did he get that in there" touchdowns, as well.

Running Backs

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DETROIT, MI - DECEMBER 12: Jahvid Best #44 of the Detroit Lions tries to get around the tackle of Ryan Pickett #79 of the Green Bay Packers on December 12, 2010 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Mikel Leshoure: 750 yards rushing, 3.7 YPC, 10 TD

Jahvid Best: 700 yards rushing, 4.3 YPC, 600 yards receiving, 11 total TD

Maurice Morris: 200 yards rushing, 3.5 YPC, 1 TD

First off, Leshoure. He should absolutely be seeing more handoffs in 2011 than Jahvid Best. That said, Best should be seeing more total touches because of his involvement with the passing game.

Let me explain.

Leshoure's makeup is that of a north-south runner. The reason he has no receiving stats listed is because I expect that the be a negligible part of his game. Leshoure's job is going to be to get the football, find a gap, and power through it.

Because Leshoure will see a lot of short-yardage work this season, his average will come down, and his scoring output will go up.

Likewise, Best's average is fairly high because of his home-run ability. Cutting the outliers, his average would probably be closer to the 3.0-3.5 range, but if he stays healthy, he should break enough 20+ yarders to bring that average way up.

The main objection to this will likely be that the Lions failed to make any meaningful upgrades to the offensive line, and so why would the running game be any better than last year?

To answer that question, I will point to Jahvid Best's last game before his turf toe injury. In week 2 against the Eagles, Best went off for 232 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns.

In that game, the Lions lacked a power complement for Best (Leshoure), and Shaun Hill was playing quarterback. And the Lions played the majority of the game from behind.

You may also point to the fact that this projection does not show the Lions with a 1,000-yard rusher this season. That's true, but it does show Jahvid Best with 1,400 all-purpose yards and the Lions with over 1,600 total rushing yards.

Wide Receivers

J. Meric/Getty Images

TAMPA, FL - DECEMBER 19: Receiver Calvin Johnson #81 of the Detroit Lions runs through the tackle of defensive back E.J. Biggers #31 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the game at Raymond James Stadium on December 19, 2010 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by J

Calvin Johnson: 90 REC, 1,200 yards, 11 TD

Nate Burleson: 40 REC, 450 yards, 3 TD

Titus Young: 45 REC, 550 yards, 4 TD

Since I'm predicting a healthy year for Matthew Stafford, that should correlate to an incredible year for Calvin Johnson.

In addition, Johnson has other receivers around him that are capable of making a play, and possibly even a reliable running game. All this equates to less pressure on Johnson and more footballs thrown his way.

I expect Burleson to start off the season strong (picking up from where he left off last year), but also for him to get less looks as Young eases into the system and builds some chemistry with Stafford.

Burleson will be the clear second option for most of the season, but Young will end up better statistically overall because of strong performances in the last four-to-six games.

And of course, both Burleson and Young would have much prettier statistics if not for the players on this next page...

Tight Ends

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EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - OCTOBER 17: Brandon Pettigrew #84 of the Detroit Lions runs with the ball under pressure from Deon Grant #34 of the New York Giants at New Meadowlands Stadium on October 17, 2010 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Nick Laham/

Brandon Pettigrew: 60 REC, 700 yards, 5 TD

Tony Scheffler: 25 REC, 200 yards, 1 TD

If you're a real stat junkie, you'll notice that these figures are not only unimpressive, they're also declines from last year.

Does that mean Pettigrew and Scheffler are headed for down years in terms of their actual on-field performance? Of course not.

What it means is the Lions' tight ends played last year with only two competent wide receivers, and an offense that had to get pass-happy if they wanted to get anywhere. There simply won't be as many balls to go around this year.

Pettigrew is still a capable receiver, and he should see plenty of passes come his way in checkdown situations.

But with the confident, big-armed Stafford in the game, and three potent wideouts on the team, the Lions should look for bigger plays further down the field. If they get their receivers more involved, it's good for the whole offense.

Last year, Pettigrew was second on the team with 71 receptions. He was probably not the first option on the majority of them. If anybody had been open down the field, Pettigrew wouldn't have been targeted as often, and Scheffler even less so.

That's the scenario I imagine in 2011. More passes to the receivers plus more attention to the running game equals less "release valve" passes to tight ends.

Pettigrew is still a weapon, so he won't drop off too much, but Scheffler might have some trouble getting looks.