Detroit Lions: Predicting the 2011 Week 1 Depth Chart (Defense)
It has been an unusual offseason with any kind of certainty coming at a premium.
We had the 2011 NFL draft go off without much of a hitch, and that has cleared up a little bit of the Lions roster.
Of course, in terms of defense, all it really determines is that Andre Fluellen won't be back.
The offense had more questions answered, like who will take the role of third wide receiver, or who will play the role of Kevin Smith/Maurice Morris.
The defense, on the other hand, added only Nick Fairley and Doug Hogue. Everything else is still up in the air. So who makes the final roster when we finally start up the 2011 season?
Here's my best shot at it, under the 2010 rules (my guess at where we'll be when this lockout business is over).
For the offensive version—now outdated because I wrote it before the draft—try here.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/672668-detroit-lions-predicting-the-2011-week-1-depth-chart-offense
Defensive Tackle
1 of 7
DT
1. Ndamukong Suh
2. Nick Fairley
3. Corey Williams
4. Sammie Hill
Figured I'd start with the easiest to project. Every one of these guys could be a starter (most of them could be a star) for any team in football. There isn't anybody even close to pushing one of these guys out of a roster spot.
Andre Fluellen was the fourth last year, and the Lions were so terrified of letting him play in 2010 they made Suh the hardest-worked defensive tackle in football.
Expect Suh to have a decreased workload with the rotation-happy Schwartz at the helm.
And don't sleep on Hill, who was widely considered the Lions' most improved player from 2009. He could actually see more snaps than Williams this year, especially if Williams continues to have problems staying onside.
Defensive End
2 of 7
RDE
1. Kyle Vanden Bosch
2. Turk McBride
3. Willie Young
LDE
1. Cliff Avril
2. Lawrence Jackson
Don't pay too much attention to the positions here. Aside from Avril and Vanden Bosch, the others will pretty much play where they're needed.
Turk McBride becomes a restricted free agent under 2010 rules, so the Lions will keep him. Lawrence Jackson seemed to come on for them as well, and he's well worth keeping under contract.
Also, Willie Young had a monster preseason last year and has a lot of raw talent. With a year of practice-squad seasoning, I don't see how the Lions can keep him off the roster again. Young is small, but he can get after the quarterback in a very Dwight Freeney-esque way.
Don't be surprised if a quarterback looking at 3rd-and-15 and a front of Suh, Fairley, Young and Avril succumbs to the Jim Everett "Phantom Sack" at some point this season.
Middle Linebacker
3 of 7
MLB
1. DeAndre Levy
2. Jordon Dizon
Nope, no Stephen Tulloch. If we're operating under 2010 rules, Tulloch remains a restricted free agent, and the Titans definitely want him to stick around.
Dizon was expected to be a valuable reserve in 2010, but he tore up his knee in the preseason. A combination of Gunther Cunningham's faith in him and a historically weak free-agent class will save his job for 2011.
I know there's lots of buzz about sending Levy back to the outside, but it seems the Lions are really happy with the way he communicates and runs the defense, and the defense did function much better in 2010 with him in it. Levy starts in the middle this year, and possibly for years to come.
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Outside Linebacker
4 of 7
WLB
1. Ashlee Palmer
2. Zack Follett
3. Doug Hogue
SLB
1. Bobby Carpenter
2. Free Agent
The play of Ashlee Palmer and Bobby Carpenter late in the season may have a great deal to do with the Lions' decision to concentrate mostly on other positions in the draft.
Are they long-term solutions? Hard to say. Carpenter might be; Palmer probably isn't.
But Follett will probably get another shot at playing defense next year—if he comes back. Follett's health is still a huge question mark after he suffered a scary neck injury during the 2010 season. If he comes back healthy, he could supplant Palmer at the WLB spot.
This is obviously not going to be a position of strength for the Lions this year, but there are some young players with potential on the roster and I think the Lions are more than content to try developing them rather than roll the dice with the third-rate free agents on the market this year (though they'll probably pull one in who outplays the likes of Isaiah Ekejiuba and Vinny Ciurciu).
Doug Hogue will make the final roster because his athleticism makes him an ideal special-teams coverage player, and the Lions would love to develop him into a starting linebacker over time.
Putting Hogue on the practice squad proposes too much risk of another team grabbing him before the Lions are able to coach him up.
Cornerback
5 of 7
CB
1. Chris Houston
2. Alphonso Smith
3. Nathan Vasher
Nickel: Amari Spievey
Dime: Aaron Berry
Let me clarify a couple things.
First, Chris Houston is restricted under 2010 rules, so he will remain in Detroit for 2011.
Second, the signing of Erik Coleman more than likely signals the Lions' willingness to move Spievey back to corner after he spent his rookie year at safety.
Third, this is likely one of the shakiest positions on the team in terms of depth-chart stability. I fully expect Berry, Spievey and Smith to jockey for position in the preseason. All three are unknown quantities in terms of how much potential they have and when they'll realize it.
Fourth, if you say "Nnamdi Asomugha," I will laugh and demean you. Okay, not really. But it's still not happening. Nor is Ike Taylor. Taylor will command a lot of money this year and may not be head-and-shoulders better than the Lions' existing options (who also have upside).
The Lions passing on Prince Amukamara and every other corner in the draft tells you how they feel about the guys they have on the roster, and I don't know if they're prepared to be big free-agent spenders again this year, especially in a weak (and unstable) market.
Houston will almost definitely anchor the top spot and Vasher will be a reserve corner on the outside (not a nickel/dime specialist).
Smith appears to be a favorite to start across from Houston, but his audition last season consisted of 10 games and an injury. He played well, but not so well that he can't be supplanted by a knockout performance by one of the team's other young players.
For instance, Berry was injured almost instantly last season, but he still managed an interception in the regular season and some incredible play in the preseason. Spievey spent last season at safety so he could adjust to the speed of the game. If it looks like he's figured out what he's doing, he could surprise and earn the No. 2 corner slot.
Safety
6 of 7
FS
1. Louis Delmas
2. Free Agent
3. John Wendling
SS
1. Erik Coleman
2. Randy Phillips
Even if the safety position looks like this when the season kicks off, don't assume it will when the season ends.
Randy Phillips has been fantastic for the Lions whenever he has gotten a shot, and I fully expect him to be starting alongside Delmas by the end of the season. It won't be right away, because Coleman is a veteran who should show well enough in preseason to warrant a starting position (especially on a defense that avoids playing young players if possible).
But Phillips' star is rising fast and he will get much better with experience.
On the other side, Delmas has the free-safety position locked down, and I expect the Lions to bring someone in (perhaps a UDFA) to back him up. Though he performed well last year on defense, Wendling is likely someone the Lions would prefer to keep fresh in his role as a special-teams ace.
If I'm wrong, Wendling is second. But whoever plays, they can't be as bad as C.C. Brown.
Special Teams
7 of 7
K: Jason Hanson
P: Nick Harris
LS: Don Muhlbach
People need to stop selling Jason Hanson down the river just because he suffered his first injury in 20 years.
The man is a living legend, and his longevity is assisted by the NFL's decision to move kickoffs up to the 35-yard line.
I know he's over 40, but he's also a kicker. He could play eight more years if he wanted to (Morten Andersen did), and it isn't as though his accuracy has taken a drastic hit. He had a down year in 2009, but was looking sharp as ever in 2010 before getting knocked out for the season.
There's something else to consider. Hanson has already entered the NFL record books for his long-distance field-goal ability, but he's also on pace to set a much bigger record: most points scored in the NFL by an American-born player.
Hanson is currently seventh on the NFL career scoring list and is within two or three seasons (at his 2008/2009 pace) of moving up to third. He won't go higher than that (the gap between third and second is 372 points), but the top two players on that list are Morten Andersen and John Anderson, who were born in Denmark and South Africa, respectively.
That doesn't win the Lions any ball games in 2011, but it would be a great thing to see. It could be that the NFL's third-leading scorer, the highest-scoring American-born player in league history, spent his entire career with the Detroit Lions.
It may be useless sentimentality, but I want to see that happen. Lions fans everywhere deserve to have the best of something.
I'd also like to see Hanson kick a game-winner in the playoffs, but that's another argument entirely.
Oh, right. Harris and Muhlbach are fine, too.
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