2011 NFL Draft: 15 Players That Will Fall Much Lower Than Expected
The 2011 NFL draft is just days away and prospects are looking to make a good final impression on NFL teams.
On the other hand, some players are making bad impressions, at least in the eyes of the media. Multiple reports surfaced recently about Ryan Mallett skipping out on a meeting with the Carolina Panthers. Although those reports were eventually denied by Mallett's agent, the damage may have already been done.
Players like Da'Quan Bowers and Mark Ingram are trying to prove that their knee injuries are no longer a factor and that they will be ready to go for next season with no lingering effects.
With the draft starting in a matter of hours, there are players rising and falling on the draft board. With that in mind, here are 15 players who could be on the wrong side of that line.
15. Ryan Williams (RB, Virginia Tech)
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Just weeks ago, Ryan Williams accepted an offer to attend the NFL draft after rushing for only 500 yards in his last collegiate season.
Not only did Williams receive an offer to attend the draft, but he also reached a deal with Nike this week.
Williams will likely be one of the last draft invitees selected and could find himself still awaiting his name late in the evening on Friday.
Aaron Wilson of National Football Post recently sat down with Ryan Williams, who had this to say about his decision to enter the draft,
""I have to be honest, I wanted to be able to play so I could be as highly picked as I wanted to be, and I feel like being in another three-back rotation, I’d probably just keep dropping."
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One thing that really stands out in that statement is Williams' lack of confidence in himself. If he is not confident enough to beat out the other RBs left at Virginia Tech, there is no chance he will be confident enough to top an NFL depth chart.
While this does not guarantee that Williams will fall, he was once considered a potential first-round pick, but ESPN's Mel Kiper has him falling to the New York Giants at No. 52.
14. Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn)
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Nick Fairley was once projected to be the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft but has seen his stock fall over concerns about his desire to be successful and his work ethic.
Fairley has been a consensus pick to land with the Tennessee Titans, but there has been no indication out of Tennessee that they will select him. It is quite possible that the Titans are tired of taking players that have work ethic concerns.
Aaron Wilson of National Football Post recently added to the concerns with Fairley, by posting this on his twitter page,
""Per three sources, Nick Fairley skipped a scheduled dinner with Dolphins coach Tony Sparano and GM Jeff Ireland in Alabama."
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If Tennessee opts to pass on him he could find himself falling outside of the top 10, something that seemed impossible just months ago.
13. Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska)
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Prince Amukamara seemed to be locked in as a top 10 pick, and many analysts had him projected to land in San Francisco.
However, it appears that there is a solid chance that Patrick Peterson will fall all the way to the 49ers, thus leaving Amukamara to fall out of the top 10.
The question is how far could Amukamara fall? The consensus seems to be that Amukamara will not last past the Detroit Lions, but there have been some indications they may select Colorado CB Jimmy Smith.
ESPN's Kevin Seifert spoke with Lions GM Martin Mayhew, who had this to say about Smith,
""I had a great talk with Jimmy. I felt like after meeting him I felt much better about him as a player. I spoke with his position coach, Ashley Ambrose, who is now coaching at Cal. [He] had nothing but great things to say about him. We've done a lot of work on Jimmy and I feel better about him than I did before I met him. I've called coaches and I've gotten the warning signs. ... They may not kill a player, but they'll say enough about a player that you'll know there's a cause for concern. I did not get that with Jimmy Smith, or with Ashley Ambrose talking about Jimmy Smith."
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While it is not a clear indication that Mayhew prefers Smith to Amukamara, the foundation has clearly been laid by the Lions to pull the trigger on Jimmy Smith.
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12. Ben Ijalana (OL, Villanova)
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Ben Ijalana is a very versatile offensive lineman, who will likely slide inside to guard in the NFL after playing tackle for four seasons at Villanova.
He is a bit of a raw talent as he didn't have to play against elite competition. He was invited to the combine but had to turn down the offer due to a sports hernia injury that he was having repaired.
Even with missing the Senior Bowl and the NFL combine, Ijalana appeared like he may be a first round pick. Just weeks ago on NFL Network's Total Access Jason La Canfora suggested that there was a legitimate chance that he could go in the first round, according to Rotoworld.
Ijalana saw a quick rise to the top, but he has since come back down to reality. The chances of Ijalana going in the first round are very slim, as he is being viewed around the league as more of a guard than a tackle.
Todd McShay has it right in his latest mock draft; he has Ijalana going No. 62 to Chicago. While Ijalana will be hoping to have his name called on Thursday, he will likely be waiting much longer than he has hoped, as there is a chance he does not hear his name called until the third round.
11. Rahim Moore (S, UCLA)
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Rahim Moore is the top-rated safety in this year's NFL draft, which would normally warrant a first-round selection. However, Moore is all but eliminated from first round consideration and could even see himself fall a bit in the second round.
Players like Aaron Williams and Ras-I Dowling have been suggested as possible safeties at the NFL level and could see themselves selected ahead of Moore.
Combine that with the fact that some analysts are not even sure if Moore is best fit as a safety in the NFL and may be best fit as a corner in a zone scheme. Dan Pompei of the Chicago Tribune had the following to say about Rahim Moore,
""Though he was very productive in 2009, Moore fell off in 2010. He ran a 4.58 in the 40-yard dash at the combine, which did not help his stock. He has average size and is not a big hitter, but he usually gets his man on the ground. Some believe he could be a cornerback in a zone scheme."
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The concerns with Moore are certainly there; an unproductive season, average size, and average speed are all reasons to be concerned with Moore as a successful NFL safety.
If teams opt to select a CB that could possibly transition into safety at the NFL level instead, Moore may find himself waiting much longer than he expected.
10. Ahmad Black (S, Florida)
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Ahmad Black was one of the most successful safeties to ever play at the University of Florida. If a team were to look simply at his game tape he would easily be a first round selection and would hear his name called near the end of the first round.
However, teams get a chance to work players out before the draft, and Ahmad Black was abysmal in his workouts. Black's poor workouts are the reasons he may not hear his name called until the third round at the earliest, but he could fall even further.
The big concern coming into workouts was Black's lack of size. He checked in at 5'9" and 184 pounds, the smallest of all the safeties in the draft.
Black recently took the time to talk to Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News about his draft stock and had this to say,
""People are always talking about size and speed," Black said. "It's frustrating. It's about who makes the plays. I get what they're saying. Teams are probably going to pass on me because of my size. But the team that picks me up will have something good."
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Black is right, it is all about who is making the plays. However, at the NFL level you have to have the speed and size to be able to make the plays, and Black lacks both of those.
Black could end up as a great heart and soul player in the NFL, but he will never become the star that he was at Florida.
9. Brandon Harris (CB, Miami)
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Brandon Harris left school early expecting to be a first round pick in this year's draft. The chances of him going in the first round are getting slimmer by the day.
According to Sports Illustrated's Peter King, Jimmy Smith is one of the players on the rise in his "Monday Morning Quarterback" piece.
Smith's rise is the biggest factor that will contribute to Harris' fall. If Smith has secured the third CB spot, the chances of Harris being drafted in the first round are even slimmer.
Another problem for Harris is that Virgina CB Ras-I Dowling is also considered to be on the rise. NFL Network's Gil Brandt believes that Ras-I Dowling will also get some first round consideration. Brandt has this to say about Dowling,
""He could very well end up being taken in the bottom of the first round, and definitely should be gone by the top of the second."
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With both of these players on the rise, Harris could end up as the fourth or even fifth CB selected, if he falls behind Texas CB Aaron Williams.
The concerns about Harris' size have been around for a while and may finally haunt him on draft day.
8. Orlando Franklin (OL, Miami FL)
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Just one month ago analysts were beginning to peg Orlando Franklin as a late-first, early-second round pick. However, his stock has begun to fall as of late.
News recently emerged that teams were concerned with Franklin's knee, as Omar Kelly of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel revealed on his twitter page.
Just recently as one month ago, ESPN's Mel Kiper had this to say about Orlando Franklin when he projected him as a first-round pick of the Pittsburgh Steelers,
""There are also other options among offensive linemen but Franklin has experience playing guard and tackle, he plays with a chip on his shoulder and employs the kind of physical style the Steelers look for in their offensive linemen."
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However, in Kiper's latest mock draft, he has Franklin falling all the way to No. 55 and landing with the Kansas City Chiefs.
With teams worrying about the status of Franklin's knee, and considering the fact that Franklin is somewhat of a "tweener" as he is somewhat between a guard and a tackle, he could make a significant free fall for a guy who was once projected to be a first round pick.
7. Jake Locker (QB, Washington)
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Jake Locker has been pegged as the wild-card QB of this draft for quite some time, thus he is an obvious candidate to fall on draft day.
It is no secret that Andy Dalton is the QB that is on the rise. According to Adam Schefter of ESPN, it is believed that both Andy Dalton and Christian Ponder will be first round picks.
Many mock drafts have projected that the Seattle Seahawks would be the team to pull the trigger on Jake Locker, however, Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times points out otherwise,
"The Seahawks hold the No. 25 pick in the draft, and it doesn't take much to connect the geographical dots.
But there haven't been any indications the Seahawks are high on him. Maybe that's all a ruse, a stern poker face of sorts, but if Seattle is really interested, it has done a pretty good job hiding it.
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O'Neil spent the article reviewing over Locker's attributes with a "high-ranking executive" who stated during the process that he would not rank Locker as a first-round talent.
Someone will likely pull the trigger on Locker, or he could see himself slide much like Jimmy Clausen did last year. If Locker were to see himself fall behind Dalton, Ponder, or both it would be seen as a major upset and a huge free-fall from where he would have been selected if he was came out of school last season.
6. Adrian Clayborn (DE, Iowa)
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Adrian Clayborn has been locked in as a first round pick since early last season, but there could be an outside chance that he falls out of the Top 32.
Clayborn has a medical condition called Erb's Palsy, which according to the National Library of Medicine is defined as a "loss of movement of the arm that occurs when nerves around the shoulder are damaged during birth."
Clayborn recently addressed the condition on an April 15th interview on ESPN's First Take, as he stated,
""It doesn't affect me, put on the tape of the last three and a half years; it hasn't really affected me. There's just some stuff I don't do in the weight room, but as far as on the field, man—I just play."
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According to Cleveland Browns beat writer Nate Ulrich's twitter page, NFL Network's Mike Mayock stated in a conference call that there are a lot of teams that are concerned with Clayborn's medical condition and that he could easily find himself falling to the No. 37 pick to the Cleveland Browns.
If Mayock is accurate about teams' concerns, it is possible Clayborn could fall much lower than anyone would have expected months ago.
5. Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama)
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Mark Ingram appeared to be locked in as the first pick for the Miami Dolphins for much of the draft process. However, a lot has changed in the past few weeks and Miami appears to be looking at other options.
There have appeared to be questions about Mark Ingram's knee, and NFL Network's Mike Mayock had this to say about Ingram,
""Even fully healthy, I have concerns about whether he’s a first-round pick, I’m not so sure he’s going there."
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While NFL Network's Mike Lombardi made his concerns known in a similar statement,
"“I’ve had two teams tell me the knee is very bad, he won’t be on their boards. These are teams that need running backs."
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It is tough to see Ingram slipping past New England three times in the first 33 picks, as they have not been shy about showing their interest in Ingram.
However, the Patriots have been known to put up smoke screens before, and if they are again this year, there is a possibility Ingram may not hear his name called until Friday.
4. Akeem Ayers (LB, UCLA)
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Akeem Ayers was once projected to go as high as the No. 10 overall pick, but has since seen his stock fall greatly in a short time.
Ayers has really plummeted as of late, and may find himself falling out of the first round.
ESPN's Kevin Weidl has Akeem Ayers as the biggest faller in the NFL draft, as he had this to say about the UCLA LB,
""He does a lot of good things well, I just don't think he excels in any area. I think you will see him go off as a fringe first round or second round pick."
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Ayers has an all-around game and is very versatile, and it would be a shock to not hear his name called in the first round, as he is one of the best pure OLB in the draft.
However, his mediocre workouts, followed up with slow 40 times may just be enough to see Ayers fall out of the first round.
3. Justin Houston (DE, Georgia)
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Justin Houston has never been projected as a top 10 pick, but he has consistently been placed in the first round throughout the draft process.
However, he has seen his name come up as a "faller" as of late and there is a chance he could fall out of the first round.
Houston has yet to assert himself as either a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 OLB, thus putting him in the dreaded tweener category.
Chad Reuter, a senior analyst at NFL Draft Scout recently listed Justin Houston as one of the fallers in this draft on his weekly chat on CBS Sports and had this to say about him,
""He reminds me a lot of Vernon Gholston, when he came out of Ohio State. Right now, he looks more like an athlete than a football. He could go anywhere from 20 to Tampa Bay to the mid-40s."
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For months now, Houston has likely expected that he would hear his name called on the first day of the draft, however, Houston falling to the second round is now a distinct possibility.
2. Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas)
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Like Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett is all over draft boards. The main concerns with Mallett are not necessarily about his playing abilities, although some teams worry about his mobility and football IQ, the major concerns are off the field.
Chad Reuter discussed the rumors of Ryan Mallett's drug use on his weekly "Risers and Fallers" feature on CBS Sports,
""Word has leaked out that he admitted to teams that he did use drugs while he was at Arkansas, that was rumored for a long time, people on campus had seen him and word had leaked out. Although he was forthcoming with it, the fact that he did it at all will take him off team's boards"
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Reuter also went on to point out that it "only takes one team" to really like him and select him in the first round. However, with some teams completely removing him from their draft board it does become a problem, as his chances to be selected early are diminished.
Another issue with Mallett has come with the rumor that he skipped his meeting with the Carolina Panthers due to a hangover. This rumor was denied by his agent later in the day, but at that point the damage may have already been done.
Projecting where Ryan Mallett will land is anybody's guess, but a long, drawn out fall is certainly within reason.
1. Da'Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson)
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Da'Quan Bowers fall from a potential No. 1 pick to falling outside of the top 10 and possibly outside the top 20 has been well documented.
Bowers has been in a seeming unstoppable free-fall since his poor pro day workout and concerns over his lingering knee injury. Rob Rang of NFL Draft Scout recently discussed Bowers fall from grace,
""His knee is enough a concern that it will scare some teams off, I talked to a club picking in the bottom third of the first round that said his knee is bad enough they red flagged it. It's conversation they'd have to have if he were to slip to the later first round."
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For a guy that was once projected as the No. 1 overall pick, falling to the end of the first round would be an absolute disaster and will cost him millions of dollars.
Bowers made the decision not to attend the NFL Draft, and that may be the right choice, as it would be heart-breaking watching a kid sit there for so long after expecting to hear his name called in the top five.
Bowers is an exceptional talent, and an even better person, but that won't keep him from being the biggest "faller" in this year's NFL draft.
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