NFL Draft 2011: 10 Last Minute Thoughts on the Detroit Lions
With the 2011 NFL Draft closing in, time is running increasingly short when it comes to breaking everything down.
There is time for one more mock draft (check back Tuesday) and little else.
Naturally, there is news, draft prospects, philosophies and other things I have missed this draft season, but they're still worth touching on. But there's no time to flesh them all out into complete articles.
There is, however, time to stick them into a "quick hits" slideshow.
So here is the roundup of anything I have yet to touch on this April, and some thoughts to take into draft night this Thursday.
1. The Mocks Are Wrong
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All the mock drafts are wrong. Mine, yours, the experts', the consensus, all of them. Period.
We do this every year, because draft speculation is one of the most fun things to do in professional sports. It's like sitting at a gift exchange at Christmas and sizing up all the presents under the tree, checking out with whom you might be able to trade them, checking your clipboard to see the presents' 40 times...
Okay, it's not a perfect metaphor.
Anyway, the flaw with mock drafts is the same as the problem with any form of precognition. The possibilities are far too robust and varied to make an accurate assessment.
Most mock drafts ignore the possibility of trades (and for good reason, because mocks including trades deviate increasingly from reality), and all it takes is one trade to blow up a number of teams' draft strategies.
So just remember, while mock drafts may be entertaining to read (and they're certainly fun to write), you can throw them out the window when Thursday night rolls around.
Especially Mel Kiper's.
2. Day 2 Is More Important Than Day 1
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It's no secret that interest in the draft plummets after the first round. Interest for the casual fan pretty much drops off the map after the top five picks come off the board.
For a devoted Lions fan, though, those second and third-round picks are as important to the team as the first.
As I have mentioned in the past, the Lions' history of drafting in the second round and beyond is every bit as sordid as their well-documented first-round bust history.
Louis Delmas is among the Lions' most important defensive players today, and he is the result of a second-round pick. DeAndre Levy is the only linebacker guaranteed a starting role in 2011, and he was a third-round pick.
If the Lions are going to continue to build on the upward track they're on, they will need to continue to hit on not only first-round picks, but multiple picks after the first round as well.
That will also go a long way in reminding us how we're past the Matt Millen era. Can't be reminded of that enough times.
3. "Best Player Available" Means Best Player Available
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You know how we always go in circles about the Lions not drafting for "need?"
That means that even if the Lions "need" a linebacker and a cornerback, they'll still take a defensive lineman if he's the best player on the board.
Tight end was far from the Lions' greatest need in 2009, but they still took Brandon Pettigrew 20th overall. Likewise, the Lions needed a cornerback more than they needed a safety, but they still took Louis Delmas.
In 2010, both those players were studs, and I doubt anybody would trade those picks for anyone else on the board at the time.
So if it comes to the third round, and the Lions can choose the best OLB prospect available or a safety who should have come off the board 35 picks ago, don't be surprised if the Lions go for value.
And don't be surprised if you're glad they did in a couple of years.
4. It's Okay to Draft for Depth
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Admittedly, Amari Spievey is a bad example. Spievey was supposed to be a starting cornerback, not depth at safety.
But after Spievey was converted to safety (and spent part of the season behind C.C. Brown on the depth chart before earning the starting role), a number of Lions fans instantly reached for the rubber "Bust!" stamp.
Lost in the shuffle is the fact that while cornerback remains a black hole, safety is quite possibly a position of strength now. It's an extremely young position (there are a combined four years of NFL experience between Delmas, Spievey and Randy Phillips), but if those players continue to develop, safety is in good shape for a very long time.
So you may say that the Lions' defensive end position is in good shape with Kyle Vanden Bosch, Cliff Avril, Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young. And you're not necessarily wrong. But it's not an All-World group of players from top to bottom, and until it is, it can still take an upgrade.
Remember that if the Lions draft a third wide receiver in the second round instead of a starting linebacker.
5. If the Lions Aren't Picking, That Doesn't Mean the Lions Aren't Affected
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Be honest. How many of you turned off the draft last year after the Lions took Ndamukong Suh?
And how many of you were shocked to turn on ESPN the next day and see the Lions trade back into the first round and nab Jahvid Best?
Exactly. That was able to happen because Best was high on the Lions' board, he slipped far enough down the first round for the Lions to smell blood, and when he got close enough, they struck.
Of course we can't predict everything going on in the minds of the Lions' brain trust, but we're smart enough to know when a player fits what the Lions want to do.
So if Bruce Carter starts slipping and ends up in the top of the third round, it's a fair assumption that the Lions will be paying attention.
You should, too.
6. The Trade Won't Be Where You Expect
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There has been much talk of the Lions trading down from the 13th position in the first round, perhaps to select Mike Pouncey or Jimmy Smith or some other prospect better suited for a pick closer to 20.
There has even been some talk of the Lions trading up to ensure they can get Prince Amukamara or even Patrick Peterson.
What there has been fairly little talk about is the Lions trading any of their other picks, even though the Lions are far more likely to play around with their third or fourth-round picks than their first.
And it isn't as though the team has had any lack of success trading in the middle rounds.
DeAndre Levy, who figures to be a fixture in Detroit's defense for years to come, was a result of the Lions trading down from the first pick in the third round with the New York Jets.
By trading out of that spot, they obtained the Jets' fourth-round pick as well, which they used to select Sammie Hill (the Lions' fourth-round selection was gone from Detroit trading up in 2008 to select Cliff Avril).
So if even if the Lions end up using the 13th overall pick on a player and not a different pick, don't think they'll be taking their fingers off the "trade" trigger. It just probably won't be where or when you expect it.
7. The Late Rounds Are Blind to Position
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In 2009, I rolled my eyes in disgust after the Detroit Lions used a second pick in the draft on a tight end.
It was bad enough that the Lions spent a first-round pick on Brandon Pettigrew. With needs in every facet of the team, why was tight end a priority?
Then they spent the second-to-last pick in the draft on Dan Gronkowski, and that was when I got the way-too-early impression that Martin Mayhew had no idea what he was doing.
Fast-forward to two years later.
Pettigrew is both one of the team's best blockers and one of its most reliable receivers. Gronkowski, after showing reasonably well in the preseason, was flipped to the Denver Broncos for Alphonso Smith, a 2009 second-round pick whose best football is likely ahead of him in a Honolulu blue jersey.
At the time, Gronkowski seemed like a ridiculous selection because of his position. But had they drafted almost anyone else, he would have probably ended up on somebody's practice squad making no impact on anyone.
The Lions are going to look in the late rounds for someone who will stick. It doesn't matter if he plays linebacker, cornerback, quarterback, tight end or long-snapper. If the Lions see him sticking with anybody, they'll take him.
8. The Entire Offensive Line Is a Need... Eventually
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The Lions' "need" to upgrade the offensive line "to protect Matthew Stafford" has been massively overblown this year.
I can't really blame the national pundits. What they know is that Stafford has spent the majority of his first two seasons inactive, and that at least one of his injuries is the result of Julius Peppers' blow-by on Jeff Backus. That, to them, means "upgrade the O-line." Perfectly reasonable conclusion.
In reality, the Lions do need to upgrade the o-line, but not exactly in the way everyone thinks.
See, nobody pays attention to the fact that even though Lions quarterbacks found themselves on the wrong end of too many flukey injuries, the line was actually a top-10 pass-protecting unit overall.
Even less attention is paid to how ineffective the interior line is at run blocking.
Stephen Peterman is a quality run-blocker when healthy. The problem is, that's quite rare.
Rob Sims doesn't get moved around, but he doesn't push others around with ease, either.
Dominic Raiola plays with leverage and intelligence, but he simply can't manhandle a guy 40-50 pounds bigger than him.
The Lions sorely need a big body to go in there and start opening up running lanes for Jahvid Best and company. Getting the running game going will be as effective at protecting Stafford as a new left tackle.
That's not to say Backus doesn't need replacement. He's in his mid-30s and in a free agent year. A left tackle is still on the table. But contrary to popular belief, it's not the area on the line that needs the biggest immediate upgrade.
9. Free Agency: Coming Soon (or Someday)!
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This is Stephen Tulloch riding Felix Jones to the ground.
Tulloch is an outside linebacker who is slated to become a free agent whenever free agency becomes a thing that happens.
Tulloch played for Jim Schwartz in Tennessee, and thus is familiar with both the coach and his scheme. He's a free agent who isn't going to pull in $50 million, but will be a solid, steady starter on a good team.
Tulloch represents the reason why it's okay if the Lions don't fill every need on the team to total satisfaction in the draft.
Yes, good teams build through the draft. But there are only so many picks, and many of the Lions' most effective producers in 2010 (Kyle Vanden Bosch, Nate Burleson, Chris Houston, Alphonso Smith, Rob Sims, Corey Williams, shall I go on?) were not a direct result of the draft.
Free agency isn't the right way to build a team from the ground up (look at the Washington Redskins if you doubt me), but it is there to fill in the gaps when needed.
That means it's okay if, by chance, the Lions wait until the fourth round to grab a linebacker. It may not be ideal, but it doesn't mean the Lions are stuck with Isaiah Ekejiuba on the weak side for opening day.
10. In Mayhew We Trust
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Just remember one thing when you're ready to rage about the "stupid decisions" made in the draft.
You're probably wrong. And given his two-year history, Martin Mayhew is probably right.
There is almost guaranteed to be a couple of decisions made this weekend that make your head spin. They may seem like absurd decisions at the time, but to many, so did Matthew Stafford.
So did DeAndre Levy.
So did Jahvid Best.
So did Brandon Pettigrew.
So did trading Ernie Sims for Tony Scheffler.
And so will many more things to come, I'm sure.
Granted, Mayhew hasn't been 100 percent accurate. But he seems to know what he's doing, and he gets paid a lot more than you or I to do it.
So if you're confused about Mayhew's draft-day decisions, reach for understanding and trust before rage and the "Fire Mayhew" chant.
That way you'll look as smart as he does in the long run.
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