Cam Newton: What Happens If He's Not the First Pick in the 2011 NFL Draft?

The Carolina Panthers are expected to select Auburn quarterback Cam Newton as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 NFL Draft next week.

But if the Panthers decide to surprise and look for their franchise QB elsewhere, how far will Newton fall? Is he facing a draft fate similar to fellow signal callers Aaron Rodgers and Brady Quinn?

Rodgers was considered a potential No. 1 overall pick in 2005. But he dropped all the way to No. 24 where the Green Bay Packers chose him to replace Brett Favre. And we know how that turned out.

Quinn was also projected as a possible No. 1 selection back in 2007, only to fall 22 spots to the Cleveland Browns. He's now in a reserve role with the Denver Broncos.

So, it's obviously not unheard of for a potential No. 1 draft pick to drop—considerably. And Cam Newton could be that guy in 2011. But I seriously doubt it.

In a quarterback needy draft market, I don't see Newton falling out of the top five.

If, for some reason, the Carolina Panthers find favor with drafting in a different direction here—or even trading out of the No. 1 spot—the Buffalo Bills are waiting at No. 3, the Cincinnati Bengals at No. 4, and the Arizona Cardinals at No. 5. All three teams are looking for quarterbacks.

The Bills have publicly expressed interest in fortifying other areas of need early in the draft process, but I wonder if they could resist Newton's tremendous upside—and the much needed excitement he would bring to that organization—if he was available?

The Bengals have to take Carson Palmer's retirement threats seriously and look for a quarterback. But let's not forget, Missouri's Blaine Gabbert is in the mix to be taken almost as high as Newton at this position.

As far as the Cards are concerned, I'm not sure the team has gotten past their four-year Matt Leinart experiment, so I don't know that they would be interested in the risk/reward scenario Newton, or any other rookie quarterback, would offer them.

From here, things could get really interesting.

If Newton somehow gets out of the top five, the Tennessee Titans are looking for a quarterback at No. 8. There are certainly comparisons between Newton and former Titans QB Vince Young, who the team sent packing a few months ago. That's not an experience the Titans want to repeat, so I'm not confident in saying Tennessee would take Newton here.

At Nos. 10 and 12, the Washington Redskins and Minnesota Vikings are looking for franchise players under center. Beyond that, let's just say I'm not going there because I don't see any way it happens.

For all the athletic ability, heart, desire and potential he offers, Cam Newton is going to need time to develop. Whatever team is willing to trade the lack of short-term success he's likely to experience for the long-term potential he offers, could reap rich rewards. But they had better be prepared for the growing pains that will accompany as Newton will need an opportunity to adjust to the game at the NFL level.

I don't believe any of the aforementioned teams are a quarterback away from a deep playoff run, so Newton will need to play a larger role than simply "managing" an offense. And that will take time.