MLB Predictions 2011: NL West Full Preview and Projections
2010 was a magical season for the San Francisco Giants. They came on strong down the stretch—passing San Diego and holding off the Colorado Rockies to win the NL West Division.
As we head into the 2011 season, the World Champion Giants will have a target on their back. The quest starts anew. There are four other teams in the NL West that have designs on winning the division and advancing to the playoffs.
Let's take a look at how each of the teams in the division shapes up, and who will win it.
5th Place: Arizona Diamondbacks
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The Arizona Diamondbacks are a young and improving team; however, there are still too many holes and question marks for this team to make a serious run at the NL West title.
Strengths:
Starting with some of their young hitters, the D-Backs have top quality in Justin Upton, Chris Young, Miguel Montero and Kelly Johnson. These four will be counted on to lead a lineup that has some weaknesses.
Justin Upton is an outstanding athlete with a world of talent. At only 23 years old, he has merely scratched the surface of what he could accomplish. In 2010, Upton hit .273 with 17 home runs and 69 RBI. Upton also swiped 18 bases. Arizona is counting on him to have another big year.
Chris Young had a breakout year in 2010. He hit .257 with 27 home runs and 91 RBI. Young also displayed his speed with 28 steals. The Diamondbacks will need Young to continue his upward path in 2011.
Kelly Johnson rebounded from a dismal 2009 in Atlanta with a stellar 2010 season in Arizona. Johnson hit .284 and contributed 26 homers and 71 RBI.
Weaknesses:
1) Starting Pitching: The Diamondbacks have two decent starters in Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy. Even these two are largely unproven, but are more accomplished that the rest of the starting staff. The remaining starters are Barry Enright, Joe Saunders and Armando Galarraga—none of whom is an upper echelon starter.
2) Bullpen: In 2010, the Diamondbacks had one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball. In the offseason, they went out and acquired J.J. Putz from the White Sox to be their closer. That move was a step in the right direction, but the bullpen remains a major concern.
3) The left side of the field: The left side of the field for the D-Backs is filled with question marks. Melvin Mora takes over as the starting third baseman. He replaces Mark Reynolds, who hit 32 home runs for Arizona in 2010, and 44 in 2009.
Mora, at 39 years of age, does not have the power or the run production capability that Reynolds did. In a stark contrast from Reynolds, Mora has only hit 15 home runs in the past two years combined.
Stephen Drew at shortstop has battled an abdominal injury in the preseason, and will need to get healthy and produce. In left field, Xavier Nady starts the year, but he also has had injury problems in recent years.
Summary: Arizona has some outstanding young talent, but not enough of it. The pitching staff is the weakest in the division. Although the Diamondbacks are maturing, there simply is not enough talent to contend.
Projected Finish: 65-97 (Fifth in the NL West)
4th Place: San Diego Padres
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The San Diego Padres had an excellent year in 2010, losing out to the Giants in the last game of the season. Almost everything went right for the Padres last year, and that is not likely to happen again in 2011.
The Padres have also lost two key players that have not been adequately replaced. Their top hitter and team leader, Adrian Gonzalez, has moved on to Boston. Gonzalez was the one superstar the Padres could count on, and there's nobody on the roster that can fill his shoes. Gonzalez takes his .298 average and 31 homers with 101 RBI to Fenway Park.
In addition, one of their top starters, Jon Garland, is now a Dodger. He won 14 games for San Diego and threw 200 innings.
Strengths:
The biggest strength of the Padres is their bullpen. Last year, if they took a lead in to the seventh inning, it was usually a certain win. Luke Gregerson and Mike Adams proved to be great relievers in the seventh and eigth innings. They handed the ball to Heath Bell for the ninth, and Bell responded with 47 saves.
The Padres have a solid middle of the infield with two new acquisitions. Orlando Hudson takes over at second base, and Jason Bartlett comes from Tampa Bay to play shortstop. Both are solid major league players, and will also provide strong defense up the middle.
Weaknesses:
1) The Padres picked up Brad Hawpe to play first base, but he is a far cry from Adrian Gonzalez. In 2010, Hawpe stumbled to a .245 average with nine home runs and 44 RBI. While I do expect more from Hawpe this year, he will not approach Gonzalez' production.
2) Starting Pitching: Padres' manager Bud Black did a masterful job managing his pitching staff in 2010. Unfortunately in 2011, there are injury concerns and the talent level has declined.
Ace pitcher Mat Latos will miss the first two or three starts with a shoulder problem. If this is something that lingers, the Padres are in big trouble.
The loss of Jon Garland is a major loss for San Diego. He will be replaced by Dustin Moseley, who had an ERA close to five last year, and has been hit hard in the spring.
Aaron Harang, who made the starting rotation, has had his best days several years ago.
Summary:
The San Diego Padres have not done enough to replace the departed Adrian Gonzalez and Jon Garland. The team had trouble scoring runs last year, and their offense in 2011 doesn't scare anyone either.
Bud Black relied on his pitching staff last year, and they came through from top to bottom. The injury to Latos, and the need for a quality fourth and fifth starter, are major concerns for San Diego.
I do not think the Padres will have the same luck as they did in 2010, and I also feel that their personnel is not as strong.
Projected Finish: 81-81 (Fourth in the NL West)
3rd Place: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Los Angeles Dodgers collectively had a down year in 2010. They finished in fourth place, and the players did not meet expectations.
Distractions took away from the team, as the veteran manager Joe Torre was on his way out. Torre also had problems with the team's best player, Matt Kemp. Kemp's lackadaisical play was an issue for the Dodgers for much of the season.
In addition, the ownership instability created by the McCourt divorce situation sometimes made it difficult for GM Ned Colletti to do his job effectively.
Strengths:
Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Rafael Furcal and James Loney are quality players. If new manager Don Mattingly can get good years from these three to lead the Dodgers, they have the potential to have a decent offense.
New acquisition, Juan Uribe—who signed a three year, $21 million dollar contract—is a run-producer, and should give the Dodgers some much needed pop. I do believe the Dodgers overpaid for Uribe, but he is better than any of their other alternatives. Uribe had 24 home runs and 85 RBI in 2010 for the Giants.
The starting pitching should be stronger in 2011. Clayton Kershaw is one of the top pitchers in the league, and he's just 23 years old. Kershaw had an ERA of 2.91, and held opposing hitters to a .214 average—both outstanding numbers.
Chad Billingsley, Jon Garland, Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda give the Dodgers five top quality starting pitchers.
Weaknesses:
1) Left Field: The Dodgers hoped Jay Gibbons, Marcus Thames or Tony Gwynn would step forward and claim the left field job. Unfortunately, it was more like who didn't step back as far as the others. Tony Gwynn begins the season as the starter, but this position needs an upgrade.
2) Casey Blake is on the downside of his career. His production was down in 2010, and he is beginning to be habitually injured. At age 37, Blake's skills are eroding, and this leaves one weak spot in the infield. Blake starts the year on the DL, but is hoping to be back after the first week of play.
3) Closer: The main issue is whether Jonathan Broxton can return to his pre-2010 level. Or will he struggle, like he did in 2010? Hong-Chih Kuo filled in admirably for Broxton last year with 12 saves, but the Dodgers need Broxton to return to form.
4) Team Chemistry: The Dodgers had very poor team chemistry in 2010. They sniped at each other, and manager Joe Torre became fed up with the prima donna attitude from Matt Kemp. Don Mattingly will need to get this group on the same page, or it could be another long year in LA.
Summary:
The Dodgers have the starting pitching to remain in contention all year. The key is whether the bullpen comes through. I expect rookie Kenley Janson to make an impact out of the bullpen, along with Kuo and Broxton.
Offensively, the Dodgers need better years from their stars, who underachieved in 2010.
The Dodgers must have a consistent focus throughout the season in order to make a run at the division title. My guess is they come up a little bit short.
Projected Finish: 85-77 (Third in the NL West)
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2nd Place: Colorado Rockies
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The Colorado Rockies will give the Giants the biggest challenge in 2011. The Rockies have two of the top players in the game in Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. In addition, in Ubaldo Jimenez, the Rockies also feature one of the top young pitchers in baseball.
The home field advantage that Colorado enjoys in Denver is also a major benefit. It will be interesting to see if that remains in effect now that the National League has introduced a better tracking mechanism on the humidor and the baseballs used in games.
Strengths:
Two of the most dynamic, game-changing hitters in Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. Tulowitzki hit .315 with 27 home runs and 95 RBI. Gonzalez challenged for the Triple Crown with 34 homers, 117 RBI and a .337 batting average.
Strong outfield defense: Coors Field has the most spacious outfield in the Major Leagues. With Gonzalez, Seth Smith and the ultra-quick Dexter Fowler in center field, the Rockies are able to run down a lot of balls that other teams can't get to.
The Rockies have quality in the top four spots in their pitching rotation. Ubaldo Jimenez is the ace of the staff, and he won 14 games in 2010 for the Rockies, with a 2.88 ERA. Jorge De La Rosa, Jhoulys Chacin and Jason Hammel are solid pitchers in the two through four slots.
Weaknesses:
1) The right side of the infield: The production from first and second base last season was very low. At first base, 37-year-old Todd Helton is entering his 15th season in Colorado. Helton was alarmingly unproductive in 2010, hitting just .256 with eight home runs and 37 RBI. The Rockies will need much more from Helton in 2011, or the longtime fan favorite could find himself out of a job.
The Rockies tried multiple players at second base last year, none of whom emerged as an every day player. Clint Barmes, Eric Young Jr. and Jonathan Herrera did not step up and warrant the starting job. Barmes is now gone to the Astros, while Young has been sent to the Minors and Herrera is slated for a reserve role.
Colorado acquired Jose Lopez from Seattle. The hope is that he can return to his 2009 form when he hit .272 with 25 home runs and 96 RBI. His 2010 season was much worse, making him expendable for the Mariners. In 2010, Lopez hit just .239 with 10 home runs and 58 RBI. The move to hitter friendly Colorado may be just what the doctor ordered for Lopez.
2) Will Huston Street be a reliable closer? There is just something about Huston Street that worries me. His 3.61 ERA is way too high for a closer, and he has had some injury problems in the past. After appearing in 64 games with 35 saves in 2009, Street had only 44 appearances and 20 saves last year.
The Rockies brought in Matt Lindstrom to be the primary setup man and provide closer insurance should Street not get the job done. However, Lindstrom is far from a sure bet. He struggled with a 4.39 ERA and 1.65 WHIP ratio with the Astros last season.
3) The fifth spot in the starting rotation is very tenuous. Esmil Rogers won the job in the spring, but he is very unproven. In 72 innings with the Rockies last year, Rogers had a 6.12 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Rogers did strike out 66 batters in those 72 innings, so he does have decent stuff. At only 25 years old, the Rockies hope he will have a break out season.
Summary:
The Rockies have an explosive offense and solid starting pitching from the top four spots. I expect the Rockies to be in the playoff hunt all season. Barring an injury to Tulowitzki or Gonzalez, they will contend for the division title.
Projected Finish: 92-70 (Second in the NL West. NL Wild Card Winner.)
1st Place: San Francisco Giants
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The 2010 World Champion San Francisco Giants appear even stronger than last year. The starting pitching remains intact, and the Giants have bolstered their offense.
The Giants lost only Juan Uribe and Edgar Renteria from the 2010 squad. GM Brian Sabean replaced them with shortstop Miguel Tejada. All of the other key contributors for the Giants are back for another run at it in 2011.
Strengths:
1) The starting pitching in San Francisco is arguably the best in the National League, with only the Phillies challenging that elite status. With Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, the Giants have two aces anchoring their staff.
Jonathan Sanchez and the 21-year-old Madison Bumgarner give the Giants good quality from the left side. The much maligned Barry Zito rounds out the staff. Although he has not lived up to his huge contract, he'll still give you 33 starts and 200 innings.
2) The bullpen is extremely solid from top to bottom. Brian Wilson is the top closer in the National League. With Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez and Ramon Ramirez, the Giants reilef corps is talented and deep. And with the strength in the bullpen, the Giants should be able to weather the first few games of the season without closer Brian Wilson, who begins the year on the DL.
3) Quality bats up and down the lineup. From No. 1 to No. 8 in the batting order, the Giants have quality hitters. San Francisco will also benefit from a full year of Buster Posey and a lighter, rejuvenated Pablo Sandoval at third base. I expect Sandoval to have a big year.
The Giants decided to start rookie Brandon Belt at first base to start the season, which moves Aubrey Huff to an outfield spot. Huff will start the year in right field due to the injury to Cody Ross, who is likely to miss the first three weeks of the season.
Belt hit .352 with 23 home runs and 112 RBI in the minors last year. GM Brian Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy have deemed him ready to take this next step.
4) Team Chemistry: The Giants rallied around the idea of a bunch of misfits and castoffs being successful. The team chemistry was excellent, and it appears to be very good again in 2011.
Weaknesses:
I don't know if weaknesses is the correct word—more like areas of concern.
1) Injuries: The core group of Giants' pitchers all threw career highs in innings last year. It was worth it because of the World Series title, but the concern is how that will affect the pitchers in 2011.
Matt Cain had some elbow soreness early in the spring, but seems to be over that now. Closer Brian Wilson experienced a flare up in his back. Then, after he recovered from that, he strained his oblique, which has landed him on the DL to start the season.
Right fielder Cody Ross, last year's NLCS MVP, is out for the next three weeks with a quad muscle problem.
The Giants were remarkably healthy in 2010, so this string of injuries so early is a concern.
The Giants do have quality depth with Mark DeRosa, Mike Fontenot and Aaron Rowand. So as long as they don't suffer multiple long-term injuries, they should be okay.
In 2010, the Giants were able to bring up Madison Bumgarner in the middle of the season to bolster their rotation. In 2011, there does not appear to be a starter who can come in without a drop off. This means that the starting staff must remain healthy and effective, or it could spell trouble for the Giants.
2) Defense: With Miguel Tejada at shortstop and Pablo Sandoval at third base, the range on the left side of the infield is below par.
In addition, Aubrey Huff's move to the outfield means that he and Pat Burrell will play the corner outfield spots together on many occasions. Burrell jokingly called this the "water buffalo defense" because of the lack of range in left and right field. Center fielder Andres Torres will be asked to cover tons of ground in the outfield.
Summary:
The Giants are poised to make another run at the division title in 2011. From there, as we saw last year, anything can happen. I believe the Giants are better than the team that won it all last year. That being said, luck goes a long way toward determining a champion.
Projected Finish: 94-68 (First Place In the NL West)
Let the Games Begin
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The grass is freshly mowed, the bunting is all in place and the splendor of opening day is upon us. I can almost taste the hot dogs already.
The NL West will be one of the toughest divisions in baseball in 2011. The top four teams will be battling it out for the division title, only Arizona is not ready for prime time.
It's been a long winter, let the games begin!
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