2011 NFL Mock Draft: Complete First Round Mock, Plus Pick No. 33
The 2011 NFL mock drafts have been pouring out like crazy over the past couple of weeks, and it's time I update my opinions.
Let me start with a disclaimer of sorts:
There are a ton of opinions, and everyone will agree or disagree with me for whatever reason. Come draft day, though, chances are higher than you'd think that we'll all be wrong.
Every last one of us, even the experts, don't know for 100 percent sure because we just don't have access to enough information. Even with combine numbers and stats bleeding out our eye sockets, there's no replacing the amount of knowledge gained from coaches' tape and film sessions.
So yes, some of my opinions may seem off the wall, but I have reason for my thoughts.
So here it is, my mock of the first 33 picks in the 2011 NFL Draft.
Needs lists generated from Todd McShay's most recent mock draft.
Check out Erik Frenz's football curator page at myspace.com/football. Follow Erik on Twitter at @e_frenz.
1. Carolina Panthers—Cam Newton, QB Auburn
1 of 33
Top Needs: DT, QB, CB, OLB, DE
According to Draft Headquarters' Shawn Zobel, the rumblings around the league are that the Panthers have their eyes on Newton with the No. 1 overall pick. Whether that is sincere interest or simply a ploy to add potential trade value to the pick remains to be seen.
There are the obvious questions about his character, having been involved in more than one off-field incident in his college years. His athleticism and ceiling, though, make him a tough prospect to pass up with the first overall pick.
2. Denver Broncos—Da'Quan Bowers, DE Clemson
2 of 33
Top Needs: DT, LB, TE, DB, DE
The injury concerns around Da'Quan Bowers' knee are nothing that should scare John Fox away from getting the second coming of Julius Peppers. He will make a fit in both the 3-4 and 4-3 fronts in the NFL, making him a great prospect as the Broncos switch from the former to the latter.
In reality, though, he figures to be a fixture at defensive end in Fox's 4-3 system for years to come—injury or not.
3. Buffalo Bills—Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama
3 of 33
Top Needs: LT, QB, DE (3-4), OLB (3-4), TE
Dareus will serve a similar purpose to the Bills as Da'Quan Bowers serves to the Broncos. He's a scheme-versatile defensive lineman and can line up in both 3-4 and 4-3 fronts with ease. The Bills seem to switch fronts rather frequently, so grabbing a guy like Dareus could pay off extremely well.
He's not an elite pass rusher, but his ability to stop the run and soak up blockers will make him a great addition to the Bills defense no matter what they decide to do going forward.
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4. Cincinnati Bengals—Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri
4 of 33
Top Needs: QB, WR, DT, OT, RB
Make no mistake, the Bengals will be in the market for a new quarterback very soon. Regardless of whether or not Carson Palmer is traded this offseason, he seems intent on finding a way out of Cincinnati sooner rather than later.
Ideally, Gabbert would have a year to develop and learn the game behind a veteran quarterback. That may not happen here, but the Bengals could find some form of stopgap as Gabbert learns the nuances of an NFL offense vs. the spread attack he's used to running.
5. Arizona Cardinals—Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M
5 of 33
Top Needs: QB, OLB, OT/OG, TE, CB
The "big two" prospects at quarterback are already off the board, but that's all well and good because neither of them project as first-year starters anyway. What the Cardinals need is a dynamic game-changer for their defense.
Von Miller may not be a perfect fit in a 3-4 defense, but he can be schemed into the Cardinals defense. His ability to get after the quarterback is alarming, and the fact that he was able to produce so consistently throughout college suggests that stopping him won't be easy in the NFL, either.
6. Cleveland Browns—A.J. Green, WR Georgia
6 of 33
Top Needs: DE, WR, DT, CB, OT
Is anyone truly surprised with this pick? The current roster of Cleveland Browns receivers is a who's who of "who's that?" A.J. Green would pose a consistent threat to take the top off the defense.
His measurables are off the charts, and at 6'4" and 219 pounds, he'll be a difficult receiver to beat one-on-one.
He may not be a "traditional" West Coast receiver, as I've heard some analysts say, but giving Colt McCoy a top-end target as he grows into the role of an NFL quarterback should take precedence over the value of picking Patrick Peterson.
7. San Francisco 49ers—Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
7 of 33
Top Needs: QB, NT, CB, OLB, WR (tall)
Why is one of the consensus best players in the draft falling all the way to No. 7 in just about every mock draft on the internet? The needs of the teams before the 49ers just fall into place in such a way that allow Peterson to fall into Jim Harbaugh's waiting hands.
Peterson is a physical cornerback with a big frame who excels in man coverage when pressing the receiver on the line. He won't give you much in terms of his ability to disguise coverages, but he's so great at what he does that it almost doesn't matter. He will be a shutdown NFL cornerback—no question.
What's more, the 49ers get their next cornerback of the future for when Nate Clements finally decides to hang up the pads for good.
8. Tennessee Titans—Nick Fairley, DT Auburn
8 of 33
Top Needs: QB, DT, ILB, G, CB
After starting out draft season as a potential No. 1 overall pick, the idea that Fairley will slide has become fairly popular.
The big question marks surround his character and his labeling as a "one-year wonder." Still, in that one year, he had better production than Marcell Dareus had in the past two seasons combined.
He is clearly a disruptive force on the interior of the defensive line, and Bud Adams hasn't been leery of taking players with significant question marks in the past (see; Young, Vince). He can bring back the chaos that Albert Haynesworth took with him—or rather, left behind—when he went to Washington.
9. Dallas Cowboys—Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska
9 of 33
Top Needs: DE (3-4), OT, ILB, DB, OG
I think it goes without saying that after being torched for the league's seventh-most passing yards in 2010, the Cowboys need fast improvement in their secondary.
Terrence Newman is getting up there in age and shouldn't be counted on to provide that shutdown level of play anymore. It's time to look to the future at cornerback. Amukamara isn't quite as big or fast as Peterson, but still has above-average size and way above-average speed.
He may not have reeled in any interceptions in 2010, but teams threw away from him. Cornerbacks have been some of the safest top-10 picks in recent drafts, and Amukamara should be no different.
10. Washington Redskins—Robert Quinn, DE North Carolina
10 of 33
Top Needs: QB, NT, WR, OLB, T, G
He's a consensus top-10 value and although he has played 4-3 defensive end, it is widely believed that he could easily transition into a 3-4 outside linebacker.
The Redskins are still in search of the right personnel for their scheme. Plugging Quinn into the defense with Brian Orakpo on the other side of the linebacker corps would provide an immediate boost to the defense.
Quinn is versatile, too, so he can stay on the field even when Washington lines up with different personnel. Shanahan loves to give different looks and Quinn can help him do just that.
11. Houston Texans—Cameron Jordan, DE California
11 of 33
Top needs: CB, FS, OLB, NT, SS
Every need the Texans have is on defense and they must do something to improve in the trenches if they ever hope to fix that. Building a great defense starts from the front and works its way back. Wade Phillips understands that.
This pick may not fill one of the "top needs" that Todd McShay breaks down, but this is definitely a Wade Phillips pick. The Texans have committed themselves to improving on defense and adding beef in the trench seems like a great place to start.
Cameron Jordan is a scheme-versatile defensive lineman who can give you help in both the 3-4 and 4-3 fronts. As they transition from the latter front to the former, the Texans may be lining up in a good mix of both packages.
12. Minnesota Vikings—Anthony Castonzo, T Boston College
12 of 33
Top Needs: QB, FS, OT, DT, C
The Vikings have offensive firepower all over the place, but their inability to protect the quarterback is really what hurt them all season long. It ended with Brett Favre's ironman streak finally coming to an end.
Castonzo is a smart, versatile tackle who can play on either side, and would allow more flexibility with the current personnel. What he lacks in overall strength he makes up for with great footwork.
13. Detroit Lions—Tyron Smith, T USC
13 of 33
Top Needs: CB, WLB, SLB, OT, RB
This is becoming something of a consensus pick, meaning that its likelihood is probably diminished a bit. It's not a top need, but Gosder Cherilus is coming off microfracture surgery and 33-year-old Jeff Backus is set to hit free agency in 2012.
In reality, the biggest need for the Lions is to keep Matthew Stafford upright and injury-free. He was a big investment for them with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, but he has yet to pay off due to spending much of his time on injured reserve and off the playing field.
Furthermore, there aren't really any great value picks available at the bigger needs.
14. St. Louis Rams—Julio Jones, WR Alabama
14 of 33
Top needs: WR, OLB, DT, RB, OG
Dreams really do come true! Sam Bradford gets his top target for the next decade, a guy who can take full advantage of his arm strength by simply going after the ball.
That's not all he brings, though. His ability to make catches over the middle will make him a favorite in new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels' scheme, which calls for receivers to make the short catch and create yards afterward.
If the Alabama wide receiver falls this far, he's definitely not falling any further.
15. Miami Dolphins—Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
15 of 33
Top Needs: RB, OG, QB, FS, ILB
Making this pick almost makes me feel cheap, but I'm not doing it simply to go with the grain of just about every mock draft out there. The pick really makes sense.
The Dolphins love to run the ball, but with both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams possibly out the door this offseason, adding talent at running back should be a high priority. The Dolphins can't put the offense in Chad Henne's hands and expect good results.
Ingram will even act as a good security outlet for Henne on dump-offs and in pass protection.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars—Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue
16 of 33
Top Needs: FS, OLB, WR, QB, DE
The Jaguars racked up only 26 sacks in 2010, ranking second-worst in the entire league in that category. They started the reconstruction of their defensive line with a great pick in Tyson Alualu and can continue the process by adding a talented defensive end.
He worked out as an outside linebacker in Indy, but would be even better off if he was just asked to put his hand in the dirt and get after the quarterback. Playing against Peyton Manning twice a year will also influence this pick a little.
17. New England Patriots—J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin
17 of 33
Top Needs: OLB, DE, OT, OG, RB
Value meets need in the 2011 NFL Draft for the New England Patriots. In terms of 3-4 defensive ends, J.J. Watt is considered the consensus No. 1/2 prospect in the draft in that regard.
Some will try to argue that he isn't a fit as a 3-4 defensive end because he didn't play there in college. I argue, however, that he's as disruptive a force on the defensive line as there is in the draft and he would draw double-teams on a consistent basis as a result.
Most importantly, he seems like just the type of selfless guy the Patriots love on their defensive line—the guys who don't mind giving up a little of the glory for the success of the team.
18. San Diego Chargers—Aldon Smith, DE/OLB Missouri
18 of 33
Top Needs: DE (3-4), ILB, OLB (3-4), RT, WR
Imagine the sound it makes when Charlie Brown misses the kick as Lucy pulls the ball away. That's the sound it made when the Chargers missed on Larry English two years ago. Now, with Shawne Merriman also out the door, the need for an outside linebacker has returned.
Aldon Smith projects as more of a 4-3 defensive end, but his ability to get after the quarterback will make general manager A.J. Smith salivate. The Chargers are known for making the "sexy" need pick, and at this point in the draft, Smith is it.
19. New York Giants—Mike Pouncey, G/C Florida
19 of 33
Top Needs: LB, C, G, TE, RB, DT
The jury is out as to just how versatile Pouncey is. Some believe he can shift back and forth with ease between guard and center in the NFL, while others believe he is simply a guard. Either way, his presence will add a great deal to that power running game the Giants love.
Shaun O'Hara's career is on the downswing and Rich Seubert is often injured. Getting a young, fresh body to lead the interior of the Giants offensive line should be a top priority in April's draft.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers—Justin Houston, DE Georgia
20 of 33
Top Needs: DE, MLB, CB, OLB, RB
After adding two monsters in the middle of their defensive line with their first two picks last year, a defensive end could really be the crown jewel of the entire defense.
There are some questions about Houston's motor, but players love playing for Raheem Morris. What's more, he would get an extra boost of motivation playing next to two great defensive tackles.
If he develops, he could really be a steal.
21. Kansas City Chiefs—Gabe Carimi, T Wisconsin
21 of 33
Top Needs: NT, WR, ROT, ILB, OLB
Carimi is a versatile offensive tackle who adds a lot with his ability to run block and set up the perimeter of the line for a big run. He can play a bunch of different spots on the line and play them all well.
He put together a good year against some of college football's top defensive ends and many other first-round prospects including Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward and Ryan Kerrigan.
He's the type of enforcer teams love to have on the offensive line—a guy who doesn't just look to beat his assignment but looks to bury him into the ground. He takes a lot of pride in protecting his quarterback and opening holes for his running back.
22. Indianapolis Colts—Corey Liuget, DT Illinois
22 of 33
Top Needs: OT, OG, DT, CB, SS
This would be a huge break from the norm for the Colts. Not only would they be drafting a defensive tackle in the first round, but they'd also draft on the defensive side of the ball in the first round two years in a row. I can't remember the last time either of those two things happened.
Liuget is a legit candidate, though. He is a penetrating defensive tackle who fits best in a 4-3 scheme. Best of all, he's a stout run defender—something the Colts have lacked on the interior of that defensive line for ages. This is a great pick for the Colts from both a value and need standpoint.
23. Philadelphia Eagles—Stefen Wisniewski, C Penn State
23 of 33
Top Needs: CB, OLB, ROG, OT, QB
The Eagles are probably content with Michael Vick scrambling from a broken-down pocket, but they'd just as soon protect their investment and best offensive weapon. They have a few interior linemen entering free agency this offseason (whenever that may be) and could use to add some talented depth up front.
Who knows—maybe they'll finally convert a 3rd-and-1?
24. New Orleans Saints—Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Temple
24 of 33
Top Needs: DE, OLB, SS, DT, RB
The Saints have several good options here, but Wilkerson is their best one. With a few upcoming free agents in Anthony Hargrove and Remi Ayodele, adding depth at defensive tackle is important. Sedrick Ellis is a disruptive force, but adding Wilkerson is important to solidify the interior of that defensive line in what is a run-heavy NFC South.
Not only that, but he's got some skills as a pass rusher, too. He'll help defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and open up the playbook a little for those blitz packages.
25. Seattle Seahawks—Jake Locker, QB Washington
25 of 33
Top Needs: OT, OG/C, QB, OLB, CB
This is another "sexy pick" in terms of its popularity in draft circles. Most pundits seem to be fixated on this pick. With Matt Hasselbeck aging and Charlie Whitehurst yet unproven, Pete Carroll can land his big-time college quarterback with the 25th pick and get ready to usher in a new era of Seahawks offense.
He could come into the NFL without any pressure, learning the game from a very gifted and talented quarterback in Hasselbeck. He comes from a spread offense and will need time learning the nuances of an NFL offense. This is a good pressure-free environment for that to happen.
26. Baltimore Ravens—Aaron Williams, CB Texas
26 of 33
Top Needs: CB, WR, OT, DE, FS
This pick changed for me several times, but I was eventually sold on him with this pick. The Ravens play in a division that has a lot of fast, talented receivers. Aaron Williams is fast enough to cover those guys, but also has the physicality to help out in run support.
He gets caught guessing at times, but that wouldn't hurt him nearly as much behind a Ravens front seven that loves to get after the quarterback.
27. Atlanta Falcons—Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa
27 of 33
Top Needs: DE, OLB, TE, WR, RT/RG
The Falcons need a bit more production out of their pass rush and John Abraham isn't getting any younger. Many view Clayborn as a hybrid prospect, but his experience is in the 4-3 front and that appears the front he's best built for at 6'4" and 285 pounds.
Without much else to choose from here in terms of value and fit, the Falcons go with the best option on their board.
28. New England Patriots—Derrek Sherrod, T Mississippi State
28 of 33
Top Needs: OLB, DE, OT, OG, RB
Some may argue for a pass-rush specialist out of the sub package with this pick, but adding a top-notch defensive lineman should help them get after the quarterback. Protecting their quarterback should easily be priority No. 2.
Sherrod's a versatile guy who can line up inside and outside as the Patriots try to figure out their offensive line in the absence of Nick Kaczur and Steve Neal and the possible absence of Logan Mankins. He's a hard-working guy who is a tough-nosed competitor. He could add a new level of attitude to the offensive trench.
29. Chicago Bears—Nate Solder, T Colorado
29 of 33
Top Needs: LOT, DT, WR, C, OLB
Considered to be a boom-or-bust pick by some, Solder has huge upside and potential if he develops. At 6'8" and 319 pounds, he's a physical specimen that will simply bowl over whoever his assignment may be. He's already a top-notch run blocker, but needs to use his head a little more in pass protection.
The fact that he didn't compete against top talent in college may be a knock on him, but from a physicality and athleticism standpoint, he's a great prospect for this pick.
30. New York Jets—Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio State
30 of 33
Top Needs: OLB, NT, DE, WR, OT/OG
Heyward may be a risky option with the question marks looming around his Tommy John surgery, but he can add a lot in terms of his versatility on the defensive line. There are some question marks as to whether he translates better as a 3-4 or 4-3 end, but he'll get by in the Jets defense on pure talent alone.
As the Jets so frequently do, they will scheme him into their defense to get the most out of him. His ability to get after the quarterback will make him a prized possession of that unit.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers—Stephen Paea, DT Oregon State
31 of 33
Top Needs: OT/OG, CB, NT, WR, TE
Most of the Steelers defensive linemen are on the back end of their careers and it may be time to start looking to the future. At 6'1" and 314 pounds, Paea is just about as close to a perfect fit as a 3-4 nose tackle as the Steelers could find in the draft.
Of course, his stock saw a huge boost at the scouting combine, during which he set a record with 49 bench press repetitions of 225 pounds. He is a monster who can really hold his ground at the point of attack and can also penetrate, as the Steelers ask of their two-gap defensive linemen.
32. Green Bay Packers—Akeem Ayers, OLB UCLA
32 of 33
Top Needs: DE, OLB, OG, WR, RB
The Packers get great value here, as Ayers will probably drop a bit due to some lackluster combine numbers. There are question marks about how he will translate in the NFL; is he a 3-4 or 4-3 outside linebacker? That same question applied to one Clay Matthews, though, and that didn't stop the Packers from drafting him.
Speaking of Matthews, the Packers will land their bookend pass rusher to go opposite Matthews in that Dom Capers 3-4 system.
33. New England Patriots—Brooks Reed, DE/OLB Arizona
33 of 33
Top Needs: OLB, DE, OT, OG, RB
Yes, I mocked the first 33 picks. I'm a Patriots writer, what did you expect?
This pick, however, will probably be traded. It's a hunch I've had since it was discovered it would be the first pick of Day 2 of the draft, which is essentially like a second first overall pick.
The value of that pick will be through the roof, and the Patriots can probably acquire a first-round pick for next year as well as a late-second or third-round pick this year.
If they pick here, though, Brooks Reed looks like just the guy they should target. With this pick, the Patriots will complete the trifecta of big needs. Reed is the pass rush presence that the Patriots have lacked off the edge for years, and though he may not be a "perfect fit" for the 3-4 defense, he certainly brings a measure of athleticism and attitude to the defense.
Not to mention, he can set the edge, which is extremely important for outside linebackers in the Patriots defense.
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