MLB Trade Speculation: 12 Players To Help the 2011 Cleveland Indians Contend
Let's take a trip through the looking glass and leave our cynicism behind.
Let's pretend for a second that the Cleveland Indians are the San Diego Padres of 2010, contending in late July but starting to show signs of fading. What this miracle team needs is some new blood injected via trade.
It's almost impossible to predict what teams will be struggling (thus wanting to move stars) this early in the spring, but it's also a stretch to think the Tribe will be contending this year. So let's use our imagination on both fronts and look at 12 players that could help a surprise Indians team make it to the playoffs and maybe even win the World Series. The year is still young; we can all have our wild dreams.
1. Zack Greinke
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As if you didn't know this was coming from the title slide.
The Brewers took a big risk trading for Zack Greinke this offseason. While the team is not in bad shape, they aren't sure-fire contenders. If the bottom falls out, they could be looking to flip Greinke and save some cash.
This trade would be like a bizarro version of the CC Sabathia deal, leaving some precedent for a move like this. The Indians would be adding a bona fide ace (Fausto Carmona looks more like a good No. 2 starter to me) with a 3.25 ERA, 1.194 WHIP, 606 strikeouts and only 162 walks in the past three seasons.
Sounds well worth approximately $4.5 million this year and $13.5 million next year to me.
2. Carlos Beltran
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Beltran hasn't exactly been healthy in recent years, but there is no denying his offensive statistics.
In the past three years, Beltran has posted a .289 average, an even more impressive .380 on-base percentage and a strong 129 OPS+. His 44 HR, 189 RBI and 39 stolen bases are just icing on the cake.
Beltran would fit in well as the fourth outfielder/part-time DH for a contending Tribe. Injuries happen, and Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner are prime candidates to go down. Beltran would fill their holes quite nicely and would come off the books after 2011. The Mets probably don't want to pay him $6.2 million for the final third of the season, so he could easily be available.
3. Manny Ramirez
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Could it be time to bring Mannywood back to northeast Ohio?
Even if you're sick of Manny being Manny, the 38-year-old still brings a lot to the table. Check out these stat lines for the past three years:
Player A: 74 HR, 284 RBI, .315 AVG, .372 OBP, .543 SLG, 138 OPS+, 300 SO, 131 BB, 2.29 SO:BB, 108 games missed
Player B: 65 HR, 226 RBI, .311 AVG, .421 OBP, .548 SLG, 156 OPS+, 266 SO, 204 BB, 1.30 SO:BB, 139 games missed
Pretty comparable, no? Player A is your reigning American League MVP Josh Hamilton. Player B is Manny. Seeing as Manny's price tag is only $2 million this year (and would only be around $700,000 for a deadline deal), Ramirez seems like a worthwhile bat to have.
The Rays could easily fall off this year (though I see them being competitive). If the Tribe is contending and the Rays are faltering, Manny Ramirez back in Cleveland would work for me.
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4. Johnny Damon
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The Rays knew what they were doing this offseason.
While Manny and Damon are 38 and 37 respectively, they still know how to play. Damon can boast 49 HR, 52 stolen bases, a .285 AVG, .365 OBP and 114 OPS+ over the last three years. He's far from the elite level he used to be at, but he could still be a useful player on a contender.
The Rays are nowhere near assured a playoff spot in the stacked AL East. If they fall out of contention, they could decide to pull an Indians and swap some recently signed veterans for prospects. If the Indians are contending, they could do much worse than Manny Ramirez or Johnny Damon.
5. Francisco Rodriguez
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A contending team is always in need of more bullpen help. Even though it's the strength of the Tribe right now, a contending Indians team could still look to add more to the relieving corps.
Francisco Rodriguez would fit the bill for a midseason addition for the Indians. K-Rod strikes out batters at an amazing rate (10.1 SO/9 in the past three years) and has kept his ERA low (2.74 for the same time frame).
His off-field trouble coupled with the Mets' financial troubles could lead to K-Rod being available, and his postseason success would certainly help a contending Tribe team.
If K-Rod doesn't pitch in 55 games this year, then his contract is up after this year at "only" $3.8 million for the final third of the season. If he does, it makes the 2012 season guaranteed at $17.5 million. If the Indians are contending, a late 2011-full 2012 bullpen of Chris Perez and Francisco Rodriguez appeals to me despite the high price tag.
6. Leo Nunez
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Same mentality as the K-Rod trade for less than a third of the price. Leo Nunez would only cost $1.2 million for the final third of the year and would give a contending Indians team another strong arm in the bullpen.
Nunez doesn't pitch quite as well as K-Rod (3.56 ERA, 7.8 SO/9 in the past three years), but he is still a good pitcher. His 2.49 SO:BB actually is better than K-Rod's (only 2.31), and he's a bit younger (27 years old to K-Rod's 29). Either pitcher would be a good complement to the already strong Indians bullpen.
The NL East looks strong this year with the Phillies and the Braves, and the Marlins aren't exactly known for holding on to players. If Nunez would bring something good in return, I suspect the Marlins would move him. If the Indians were contending, they'd be smart to add arms like Nunez and K-Rod to the bullpen.
7. Jeremy Affeldt
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Same idea as Nunez and K-Rod, with better intangibles.
Jeremy Affeldt pitched so well in 2009 that he finished 28th in the NL MVP voting despite not saving a single game. In 2010, while he dropped off, he was still a key bullpen member of a world champion Giants team. If the Giants drop off and are looking to move the final $1.5 million (plus a $500,000 buyout for 2012) of Affeldt's contract, a contending Tribe team would be wise to add him.
Affeldt's BABIP was amazingly high last year (.356), while in 2009 it was amazingly low (.250). All said, his pitching should be above-average to good this year, as opposed to the two extremes he was at between 2009 and 2010.
Affeldt's already won one World Series title, achieved great personal success and grows a more realistic beard than Brian Wilson; he would be a great addition for a contending Indians team's bullpen.
8. Brandon Webb
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Remember him?
From 2006 to 2008, Brandon Webb posted outrageous numbers. He posted a 3.13 ERA (150 ERA+), struck out 555 batters to only 187 walks (2.97 SO:BB) and had a 1.172 WHIP in 698.0 workhorse innings pitched (232.2 per season).
He won one Cy Young Award in 2006 and finished in second in 2007 and 2008. According to WAR, he was tied for second-best pitcher in 2006, fifth in 2007 and tied for 10th in 2008. By all accounts, he was an elite pitcher.
Fast-forward to today. Webb has only pitched four innings since and is 31 years old. There's no knowing if he'll come all the way back. The Rangers signed him as a flier, not as an absolute replacement to Cliff Lee. How the mighty have fallen.
There's still hope for Webb, though. If healthy, he could easily round back into the form that put him on top of the baseball world. If the Rangers falter this year, they could easily look to move a rebounding Webb for pieces more useful in the future.
A healthy Brandon Webb would help a contending Indians team quite a bit. Webb's basically seen how close he is to being out of baseball and would bring a sense of urgency to a young Tribe team. If he's pitching like he used to with the perspective he now has, he just might help lead Cleveland back to the playoffs.
9. Aramis Ramirez
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Third base isn't the Indians' strongest position right now, and if the Tribe were a surprise contending team, they might need to shore it up.
Enter Aramis Ramirez.
Ramirez hasn't been the strongest player of late, but in his last three years, his stats aren't bad. He has a .278/.353/.494 line with a 115 OPS+, 67 HR and 227 RBI. He's not the strongest option in the world, but he's a much better option than Jayson Nix.
Ramirez is owed $4.9 million for the last third of the season and would need a $2 million buyout for the 2012 season. The Cubs are probably over the Aramis Ramirez era (and the Alfonso Soriano era, but that's a different story) and would probably move him if an offer was made. If the Indians are contending, he's not the worst option at third base.
10. Mike Young
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Mike Young hasn't been happy with the Rangers ever since they signed Adrian Beltre, and he has asked for a trade. While the Rangers are yet to oblige, a World Series hangover could change their mind.
Young has three years and $48 million left on his contract, a big obstacle in trading for him. His .295 AVG, .346 OBP, 108 OPS+ and 65 HR in the past three years aren't bad though. Plus, if third base becomes a problem for the Indians down the stretch, they could be motivated to pick Young up.
The contract will probably prohibit this trade from happening, but you never know. I'd rather the Indians go for broke if they have a chance at a title than wimp out and sell themselves short.
11. Jim Thome
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The Indians haven't made the World Series since Jim Thome left Cleveland. Does that sound like a coincidence to you?
Okay, maybe it is. But that's besides the point. The real point is that the 2011 version of Jim Thome could easily add to the Tribe what the 2007 version of Kenny Lofton did: a veteran presence and blast from the past.
Thome is still a top hitter even if he can't play in the field any more. In the past three years, the 40-year-old has hit 82 HR and driven in 226 runs. His .255 average may not be too impressive, but his .376 OBP, .526 SLG and 134 OPS+ are still top of the line.
I'd love if a contending Indians team was able to add Jim Thome, have him fill a pivotal role and win a World Series with him. For only $1 million, it's definitely doable. As far as dreams go, this one's pretty high up on the list for me.
12. Livan Hernandez
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If it worked once against the Indians, it has to work for them 14 years later, right?
All kidding aside, Livan Hernandez was the tied for the 13th-best pitcher in the NL last year according to WAR. His 3.66 ERA (110 ERA+) and 1.323 WHIP tell a rosier story than his 10-12 record. He's not an elite pitcher, but he is someone who is a warrior and has seen success in the postseason (again, 14 years ago, but who's counting?).
As a late-season pickup, and at $300,000 for the last third of this year and only $1 million next year, he would fit into the Dolan style of team building: as cheap as possible.
If the Indians do manage to compete this year, hopefully they don't squander the opportunity and do make one of these moves to make the team better. I'd hate to see them let things slip away like they always do.
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