2011 NFL Draft: Is Allen Bailey a Good Fit for the New England Patriots?

Pundits and media types are always trying to predict what the New England Patriots will do in the NFL Draft, and 2011 is no different. Everyone from Mel Kiper Jr. to Mike Mayock is weighing in on who they think is a good fit for the Patriots.

But truth be told, only the Patriots know best. One of the ways they find out is to work out those prospects individually.

It's no secret that defensive end is one of the biggest needs for the New England Patriots in the upcoming draft, so it was no surprise to anyone that the first news of an individual work-out happened to be Miami defensive end Allen Bailey.

In terms of how well he fits in the Patriots system, it remains to be seen. There are many defensive line prospects in this year's draft that have experience playing in a 3-4 system, but Bailey isn't one of them. He moved around the line, though, playing both end and tackle positions in the 4-3 at Miami.

As such, his size isn't perfect for the Patriots at a shade under 6-4 and 287 pounds, but the versatility he showed at Miami could have the Patriots looking his direction.

One big question surrounding the Patriots has been how they will address their flawed pass rush, which scraped by with 36 sacks last year and just 31 sacks in 2009.

After spending over 50 percent of their defensive snaps in a sub-package in 2010, it's clear that the Patriots need someone who can influence their pass rush in the situations that call for a sub-package. Scouts Inc. says of Bailey, "Has experience playing DE and DT in a four-man front. Projects as a power end who can move inside and rush the passer on obvious passing downs."

Bailey has good speed for his size, and also has a few pass rush moves at his disposal, as well as a mean bull rush. He could be used in this scenario as he evolves into a true four-technique defensive end.

According to my calculations of explosion number and production ratio, Allen Bailey ranks as one of the top five defensive linemen and outside linebackers in those numbers (follow the link for more information and rankings).

He made a total of 50 plays behind the line of scrimmage in just 31 college starts. Even in the ACC, that's enough to make a scout's head turn.

The way the rankings break down right now, the Patriots could get him in the second round with their 33rd overall pick. Of course, we all thought Devin McCourty was a sure-fire second-rounder before the draft, and when the Patriots took him in the first, many thought it was a reach. That's just more proof that only the coaches and GMs know best.

We ultimately know nothing until far after the draft, when these players have had a chance to prove themselves on the field. This is why it's best to live by that old adage—"In Belichick we trust."