NL Central Preview: Can the Cincinnati Reds Repeat?
The National League Central has picked up steam in the offseason.
Last year, it was touted as one of the worst divisions in baseball. Now, the Cubs have picked up pitcher Matt Garza, the Brewers got Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum and the young Reds have a year of experience.
Has anyone added enough to overtake the Reds?
Let's take a look and find out.
Sixth Place: Pirates (2010: 57-105)
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Key Additions: Lyle Overbay, Matt Diaz, Kevin Correia, Scott Olsen, Garrett Atkins, Joe Beimel
Key Subtractions: Zach Duke, Lastings Milledge, Chan Ho Park
I’m sorry, this is the Pirates. Overbay and Diaz should provide a glimmer of production. That’s it.
Pittsburgh was 29th in runs scored last year. Nothing they did will change that very much.
When you’re best pitcher is probably Russ Ohlendorf, there is no hope.
Maybe another year…
Fifth Place: Astros (2010: 76-86)
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Key Additions: Clint Barmes, Bill Hall, Ryan Rowland-Smith
Key Subtractions: Matt Lindstrom, Felipe Paulino, Brian Moehler, Geoff Blum
The Astros actually played pretty well, winning over half of their last 100 games. However, they did absolutely nothing to improve on their previous record. When three of my top four teams are destined on building on last year’s record, plus the Cardinals, who are still going to have a decent record, there’s no way I can put the Astros in a good spot here.
Not one person batted exceptionally well on the roster last year. That probably led to the atrocious 28th-most runs scored last year. They did nothing to change that during the past offseason.
Starting pitching was actually a strong point last year, to the surprise of many, even after they traded away Roy Oswalt. They turned in as many quality starts as the Giants last year. Without a quality pen and a true ace, though, I don’t see them doing much damage this year.
The Astros are more focused right now on selling the team and moving toward the future, and I see them battling the Pirates for the fifth spot this year.
Fourth Place: Cubs (2010: 75-87)
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Key Additions: Matt Garza, Carlos Pena, Kerry Wood, Reed Johnson, Fernando Perez, Max Ramirez
Key Subtractions: Tom Gorzelanny, Xavier Nady, Sam Fuld
The Cubs went out and proved they are trying to field a winning team, just as they have in the past.
They acquired Matt Garza (3.91 ERA) and Carlos Pena, who is a career .240 hitter, good for about 30 dingers and 100 RBI. Last year, he hit .196 with 28 HR and 84 RBI, so the Cubs are taking a small gamble, hoping he returns to form and provides some pop at first base.
Last year, they generated the 18th-most runs.
They need a spark, and Pena might be just that.
If he can somewhat return to form, he could be good for 100 RBI. There are a lot of questions. Outside of Starlin Castro and Marlon Byrd, we don’t know who will produce. Alfonso Soriano hit just .258 last year and is on the downside of his career. Aramis Ramirez needs to bounce back or he is out.
The pitching was also weak last year. However, they have added Matt Garza and are hoping that Carlos Zambrano continues where he left off last season. Oh, and pray Kerry Wood can stay healthy. That alone should be enough to improve the ERA enough to be a contender.
In the end, I just don’t see enough going right for the Cubs to make the playoffs. I believe they are going to be a competitive team, but just not yet ready for the playoffs. Hey, Chicago, can you say Albert Pujols?
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Third Place: Cardinals (2010: 86-76)
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Key Additions: Lance Berkman, Ryan Theriot, Gerald Laird, Nick Punto, Brian Tallet, Miguel Batista
Key Subtractions: Brad Penny, Brendan Ryan, Blake Hawksworth, Jason LaRue, Aaron Miles, Randy Winn, Jeff Suppan
The Cardinals made some key moves this offseason to try and generate some runs and improve defense.
Bringing Punto in will surely shore up the defense, Berkman could bounce back and give them production in the outfield and Theriot should provide some pop at shortstop when Punto’s not playing.
They did not do a whole lot to shore up much, but they made a couple low-risk moves that could pay off down the stretch. But hey, what can you do while you’re trying to sign Albert Pujols to a fat new contract?
The Cardinals took their first big hit when Adam Wainwright was sentenced to have Tommy John surgery. Last year, Wainwright led the fifth-ranked pitching staff with a 2.42 ERA, 20-11 record, 213 Ks and an incredible 1.05 WHIP.
This is a big blow and their pitching will definitely digress, but pitching coach Dave Duncan can make a star out of anyone, so I would not worry too much about this if I were a Cards fan. Kyle McClellan looks like the probable replacement for Wainwright.
Last year, the Cards offense was down, only finishing in the middle pack of the league. This is where the second potentially big blow comes into play. They failed to sign Pujols to a contract extension by his self-imposed deadline, leading everyone to believe he will be in another uniform next year.
After the Wainwright injury and the lack of signing a real hitting threat during the offseason, paired with being a team that missed the playoffs last year, I just don’t see enough upside for them to get back to the playoffs this year.
The saddest part, though, is that this may be their last trip for a few years if Pujols does not return in 2012.
Second Place: Brewers (2010: 77-85)
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Key Additions: Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Takashi Saito, Yuniesky Betancourt, Sean Green
Key Subtractions: Alcides Escobar, David Bush, Carlos Villanueva, Trevor Hoffman, Chris Capuano, Doug Davis, Todd Coffey
The Brewers had anything but a quiet offseason. They spent their time acquiring Greinke, Marcum and Betancourt.
Talk about using your time wisely.
The team was second-to-last in ERA in the NL last season, and with these guys, it should boost them to at least the middle of the pack. Betancourt will help steady the shortstop position there, too.
They produced the fourth-most runs in the NL last year, and after not losing anyone important and adding Betancourt, I say, why not do it again?
The pitching was pitiful last year, but oh well. They have Greinke and Marcum now, two front-end starters.
Before the Wainwright injury, they’re third, but now they’re on the up and up and will contend for a wild-card spot.
First Place: Cincinnati Reds (2010: 91-71)
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Key Additions: Edgar Renteria, Fred Lewis, Jeremy Hermida
Key Subtractions: Orlando Cabrera, Laynce Nix, Arthur Rhodes, Aaron Harang, Mike Lincoln
The Cincinnati Reds pretty much stood pat this offseason, not losing anyone that good, but not picking up anyone that is much too special, either.
They signed Renteria, the reigning World Series MVP, but chances are, other than the Reds handing out extensions to their players, this is probably the only move you heard of.
Last year, the Reds generated the most runs in the NL. Now, reigning MVP Votto, Bruce and Co. are a year more experienced and ready to come back and put up some more big numbers, and you can count on that.
Losing All-Star Arthur Rhodes is probably their biggest loss, but considering he’s 41 and Aroldis Chapman is waiting in the wings, perhaps the best move was to let him go rake in the dough elsewhere.
It was a very boring offseason for a Reds fan, and I don’t see anything that changes them from winning the division again.
Check out our other division previews
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