MLB Preview 2011: Looking at Jose Reyes and the New York Mets "On Paper"

Adrian FedkiwAnalyst IIIFebruary 28, 2011

MLB Preview 2011: Looking at Jose Reyes and the New York Mets "On Paper"

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    Omar Minaya is gone after dishing out contracts to players who have underperformed such as Carlos Beltran, Jason Bay and Oliver Perez to name a few. 

    The Wilpon family hired former Oakland Athletics executive Sandy Alderson as Minaya's succesor.  Alderson dealt with a tight payroll before in Oakland.  He has a tough job ahead of him. 

    This offseason Alderson and the Mets went with low risk, low pay signings such as D.J. Carrasco, Boof Bonser and Ronny Paulino.  It's a step in the right direction for the time being.

    New York had to borrow $25 million from the MLB in November to help cover costs.

    Jose Reyes is a free-agent after the season.  If the Mets fall out of contention early, what's the probability that he'll be moved?



    Pitcher Rankings

    Positional Rankings

    2011 Atlanta Braves Preview

    2011 Florida Marlins Preview


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    Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
    • C-  Josh Thole 7 
    • 1B- Ike Davis 7 
    • 2B- Daniel Murphy 7 
    • SS- Jose Reyes 8 
    • 3B- David Wright 8.25


    Josh Thole (24) 202 AB .277 BA 17 R 3 HR 17 RBI 1 SB 

    • Thole got called up in June after an injury to Rod Barajas.  Thole doesn’t have much power, but he makes good contact.  If Thole struggles early, the Mets can turn to Ronny Paulino.  Paulino hit .358 against lefties last year.


    Ike Davis (24) 523 AB .264 BA 73 R 19 HR 71 RBI 3 SB

    • With Adrian Gonzalez now in the AL, Davis is a candidate to win a Gold Glove this season at first base.  Hitting wise, I like to think of Davis as a younger version of Adam LaRoche.  He does need to cut out on the strikeouts; he got punched out 26.4 percent of the time. 


    Daniel Murphy (26) DNP/INJURY

    • The Mets have a plethora candidates competing for the starting second base job.  Along with Murphy, Luis Castillo, Ruben Tejada, Justin Turner and Brad Emaus are potential candidates to win the starting job.  Murphy is coming off a torn MCL.


    Jose Reyes (27) 563 AB .282 BA 83 R 11 HR 54 RBI 30 SB

    • He’s no longer a threat to steal 60 bags, but Reyes can still scoot.  In the last two years, Reyes attempted to steal 18.9 percent of the time opposed to 33.4 percent from 2004-2008. 
    • He dealt with a thyroid condition and an oblique strain for much of the year.  I would think that Reyes moves back to the lead-off spot after hitting third for part of last season.


    David Wright (28) 587 AB .283 BA 87 R 29 HR 103 RBI 19 SB

    Despite all the inconsistency in New York the past five years, there has been one constant in David Wright.   The career .305 hitter has seen a sharp rise in his strikeout totals.  Wright struck out approximately 115 times a season the first five years of his career.  In the last two years, Wright struck out 140 and 161 times respectively.  


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    • LF- Jason Bay 7.5 
    • CF- Angel Pagan 7.25 
    • RF- Carlos Beltran 7.25


    Jason Bay (32) 348 AB .259 BA 48 R 6 HR 47 RBI 10 SB

    • While people state that Citi Field was the reason for Bay's decline in power, statistically, he was worse on the road.  He had a .243/.326/.355 slash away from New York.  


    Angel Pagan (29) 579 AB .290 BA 80 R 11 HR 69 RBI 37 SB

    • Pagan is one of the more underrated outfielders in the game.  He plays with good instincts and takes good routes on the baseball.
    • If Reyes can stay healthy this season the Mets may give opposing staffs fits on the basebaths; similar to the Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo combination in Florida several years back.  In such a pitcher friendly park like Citi Field, speed is the way to go.  


    Carlos Beltran (33) 220 AB .255 BA 21 R 7 HR 27 RBI 3 SB

    Beltran is moving to right to lighten the load on his surgically repaired right knee.  Beltran debuted in July last season and was rather silent until September where he hit .321 to go along with five homers.

Starting Pitching

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    • 1. Johan Santana- 7.75
    • 2. Mike Pelfrey- 7.25
    • 3. Jonathon Niese- 7
    • 4. R.A. Dickey- 7.25
    • 5. Chris Young- 7


    Johan Santana (32) 199 IP 11-9 2.98 ERA 1.18 WHIP 144 K

    • Santana’s going to debut somewhere around June due to September shoulder surgery.  The velocity on Santana’s fastball has declined over recent years, but his changeup remains effective.


    Mike Pelfrey (27) 204 IP 15-9 3.66 ERA 1.38 WHIP 113 K

    • Pelfrey started the season blistering hot, 10-2, but was up and down to close the season.  Much of his success last year had to do with the new forkball that he debuted.  Another positive sign, he’s logged 200 plus innings in two of his last three seasons.


    Jonathon Niese (24) 174 IP 9-10 4.20 ERA 1.46 WHIP 148 K 

    • Niese pitched well until hitting the wall in September where he had a 7.11 ERA.  The cutter is his best pitch.  


    R.A. Dickey (36) 174 IP 11-9 2.84 ERA 1.19 WHIP 104 K

    • How can you possibly explain a guy who broke out at the age of 35?  Entering last season Dickey had a career 5.43 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP.  Dickey throws his knuckleball a bit harder than others in baseball.  The velocity on his fastball is in the mid-80's, again, high for a knuckleballer.


    Chris Young (31) 20 IP 2-0 .90 ERA 1.05 WHIP 15 K

    Young dealt with a rash of injuries to his forearm, elbow and arm the last two years.  When healthy, he can contribute.  Dillon Gee is my guy to start the season as the No. 5 starter with Santana on the shelf.  Chris Capuano is another option.


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    • RP- Oliver Perez- 7
    • RP- D.J. Carrasco- 7
    • RP- Manny Acosta- 7
    • SU- Bobby Parnell- 7
    • CP- Francisco Rodriguez- 7.5

    Manny Acosta, D.J. Carrasco, Oliver Perez

    • Out of all the questionable signings the Mets have made, the $36 million Perez got may be the worst.  His ERA has been over six in three of the last five years.  He has lost all command of his pitches; he walked 42 batters in 46 1/3 innings last season.  Will he even make the team?
    • With the longtime Mets lefty specialist Pedro Feliciano gone, the Mets need a lefty specialist to deal with the likes of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Brian McCann and Jason Heyward in the NL East. 
    • Tim Byrdak, Mike O’Connor and Taylor Tankersley are other lefties currently fighting for bullpen spots.  


    Bobby Parnell (26) 35 IP 0-1 2.83 ERA 1.40 WHIP 33 K

    • Parnell is a power, strikeout pitcher who throws his fastball between 96-100 MPH.  He also throws a power slider which has late bite.  Parnell has yet to incorporate any sort of off-speed pitches to his repertoire.


    Francisco Rodriguez (29) 57.1 IP 4-2 25 SV 2.20 ERA 1.15 WHIP 67 K

    • Rodriguez pleaded guilty to assault charges against his girlfriend in December.  He avoided jail by accepting Anger Management therapy.
    • As his velocity continues to diminish, Rodriguez has relied more and more on his curveball and changeup.

Sizing Up the Mets "On Paper"

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    Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
    • C-  Josh Thole- 7 
    • 1B- Ike Davis- 7 
    • 2B- Daniel Murphy- 7 
    • SS- Jose Reyes- 8 
    • 3B- David Wright- 8.25 
    • LF- Jason Bay- 7.5 
    • CF- Carlos Beltran- 7.25 
    • RF- Angel Pagan- 7.25 


    Projected Lineup 

    1. Jose Reyes- 8
    2. Angel Pagan- 7.25
    3. David Wright- 8.25
    4. Carlos Beltran- 7.25
    5. Jason Bay- 7.5
    6. Ike Davis- 7
    7. Daniel Murphy- 7
    8. Josh Thole- 7 

    1-3- 23.5

    4-6- 21.75

    7-8- 14

    Projected Starting Rotation

    • 1. Johan Santana- 7.75
    • 2. Mike Pelfrey- 7.25
    • 3. Jonathon Niese- 7
    • 4. R.A. Dickey- 7.25
    • 5. Chris Young- 7
    • RP- D.J. Carrasco- 7
    • RP- Manny Acosta- 7
    • RP- Oliver Perez- 7
    • SU- Bobby Parnell- 7
    • CP- Francisco Rodriguez- 7.5


    Bench- Ronny Paulino, Luis Castillo, Scott Hairston, Lucas Duda, Brad Emaus- 7

    Manager- Terry Collins- 7


    INF- 37.25

    OF- 21.75

    SP- 36.25

    RP- 7

    CP- 14.5

    MISC- 14

    Hitting- 59

    Pitching- 57.75

    TOTAL- 130.75


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    PREDICTION- 75-87 4th NL East

    If everyone can stay healthy, who knows what the Mets are capable of doing.  The chances of everyone staying healthy however, are rather slim.

    The starting rotation has question marks.  With Johan Santana out until June, Mike Pelfrey is going to have to step up and be the guy.  What will youngsters Jonathon Niese and Dillon Gee provide?  Is R.A. Dickey for real?  Can Chris Young stay healthy? 

    There's so many questions, and very little answers.