MLB Predictions: Can the 2010 Top 10 AL Rookies Avoid the Sophomore Jinx?
A few days ago, we covered the top rookies in the National League during the 2010 season that will be looking to avoid the dreaded sophomore jinx for 2011. History clearly tells us that at least one or possibly more will inevitably fall through the cracks and flame out a la Mark Fidrych or Joe Charboneau.
The American League is certainly no different. While the 2010 season produced a fabulous crop of rookies in the AL, ultimately we will be talking about one of them who suffered through a horrible second season and were unable to capitalize on early success.
The game of baseball can certainly be cruel at times. Success can turn to heartache in the bat of an eye. Yesterday’s star can turn into tomorrow’s chump at any given moment. One only has to look to Rick Ankiel and Dontrelle Willis to know that, although Ankiel did re-create himself as a center fielder with power and an incredible arm.
However, as we noted in the National League sophomore jinx story, there are a select few who will go on to greatness, and while some of the great American League rookies of 2010 will possibly go on to have nice careers, in the past, only 12 percent of all Rookie of the Year award winners have gone on to Hall of Fame careers.
We will look at the top vote-getters for the 2010 American League Rookie of the Year, and we let you decide who you believe is the biggest candidate for the dreaded sophomore jinx.
10. Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland Indians
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At 24 years of age, catcher Carlos Santana of the Cleveland Indians could have been well on his way to a Rookie of the Year type season if Ryan Kalish of the Boston Red Sox hadn’t barreled into him and trashed his knee in early August. Santana was hitting .260 with six home runs and 22 runs batted in at the time and showed great promise in challenging both Neftali Felix and Austin Jackson for the coveted award.
In 2011, the Indians plan to play Santana at both first base and designated hitter at times during the season, partially to keep him fresh in the wake of last year’s injury. The Indians took a similar tack with Victor Martinez during his time with the Tribe, and the breaks from behind the plate could do a world of good for Santana as well.
9. Ryan Kalish, OF, Boston Red Sox
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Kalish started the season at double-A Portland in 2010, moved up to triple-A Pawtucket after 41 games, and then was called up to the Boston Red Sox on July 31. During his time with the two Boston minor league affiliates, Kalish hit .294 with 13 home runs and 47 runs batted in, and after being called up to the Red Sox, Kalish did nothing to disappoint the Fenway Faithful, hitting .252 with four home runs and 24 runs batted in after his call-up.
Kalish will be battling for playing time in 2011 with the Red Sox, as the outfield of Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D. Drew appears to be set. However, Kalish clearly displayed that he is ready to assume the fourth outfielder role, playing all three outfield positions for the Red Sox last season and will get some at-bats as the designated hitter as well.
However, the Sox will likely want Kalish to get regular playing time, and with the return of Mike Cameron to full health, Kalish will probably start the season in Pawtucket to continue getting regular at-bats. But that doesn’t stop Red Sox manager Terry Francona from gushing about young Ryan Kalish.
“To be honest, we loved his demeanor,’’ Francona told the Boston Globe. “I think we used the [name] ‘Trot Nixon’ a little bit last spring with his approach, but he wasn’t ready to be in the big leagues. That’s not a knock on him. He was still in Double A.
“When he came to us, it was amazing how much he had improved from the end of March to the middle of July. So all his attributes he brought—the way he approached the game, the way he played. And then you see his swing get a little shorter, you see the way he played the outfield, and his ability to play center field, it was really exciting.’’
8. Peter Bourjos, CF, Los Angeles Angels
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The Los Angeles Angels were so impressed with the skills of 22-year-old Peter Bourjos that they were compelled to move nine-time Gold Glove award winner Torii Hunter to right field in order to accommodate the move of Bourjos to the majors in early August last season.
Bourjos was indeed flashy in center field, covering ground and making some huge plays. However, at the plate, Bourjos was not quite as impressive, hitting just .204 in 51 games. Bourjos did show bursts of power, with six home runs, and the Angels are counting on Bourjos to continue his maturation at the plate in 2011.
If Bourjos is unable to figure out major league pitching, the Angels just happen to have the top rated minor league prospect in all of baseball in 19-year-old Mike Trout, who possesses even more speed and power than Bourjos.
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7. Brian Matusz, SP, Baltimore Orioles
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Brian Matusz gave the Baltimore Orioles a peek in 2009 with eight late-season starts, putting together a record of 5-2 with a 4.63 earned run average.
In 2010, Matusz was secure in the starting rotation for the young Orioles, posting a record of 10-12 in 32 starts with a 4.30 ERA. Those are pretty impressive numbers for a team that lost 96 games.
At just 24 years of age, Matusz has tremendous upside, and he is looking forward to an improved bullpen and additions to the lineup that should increase run production for the Orioles in 2011.
"It just builds more confidence," Matusz told the Baltimore Sun. "This year, you're not going to feel like you have to go out there and hold the other team to one or two runs. All you have to do is go out and keep us in the game and we'll score some runs. It gives you confidence on the mound when all those pieces come together.”
6. Brennan Boesch, OF, Detroit Tigers
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Outfielder Brennan Boesch put together a fine first season for a depleted Detroit Tigers team in 2010, hitting .256 with 14 home runs and 67 runs batted in.
With injuries to both Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen, both Boesch and fellow rookie Ausin Jackson played key roles in the Tigers offense for 2010, and Boesch will once again be counted upon to continue providing offensive punch for the Tigers in 2011.
5. John Jaso, C, Tampa Bay Rays
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Catcher John Jaso took the long road to the majors, originally drafted by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the 12th round (338th overall) of the 2003 Major League Baseball Draft. After a brief call-up in 2008 by the Rays, Jaso got his chance to shine at the major league level in 2010, hitting .263 with five home runs and 44 runs batted in.
Jaso was handed full-time catching duties after both Dioner Navarro and Kelly Shoppach struggled at the plate for the Rays, and with Navarro going to the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent during the offseason, Jaso is set in stone as the catcher for the Rays in 2011.
After Rays manager Joe Maddon gave Jaso a wake-up call last spring regarding his defensive abilities, Maddon is now much more comfortable with his young catcher.
Maddon laughed: "He's much more comfortable, and I'm much more comfortable with him."
4. Wade Davis, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
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After making his major league debut on Sept. 9, 2009, during which he pitched seven innings, allowing one run with nine strikeouts, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Wade Davis was named the fifth starter for the Rays to start the 2010 season.
Davis delivered, compiling a record of 12-10 with a 4.07 earned run average and was named American League Rookie Pitcher of the Month for July, posting a 4-0 record with a 3.03 ERA in five starts.
With the trade of Matt Garza to the Chicago Cubs, Davis will be called upon to step up as a leader in the starting rotation for the Rays alongside David Price and James Shields.
3. Danny Valencia, 3B, Minnesota Twins
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Danny Valencia, drafted while he was a junior at the University of Miami by the Minnesota Twins in the 19th round of the 2006 Major League Baseball Draft, made his debut with the Twins on June 3 last season.
Without a clear-cut leader at third base for the Twins, Valencia was given the opportunity to show his stuff, and he excelled, hitting .311 with seven home runs and 40 runs batted in.
Defensively, Valencia showed a sparkling glove, committing just six errors in 233 total chances, securing his spot as the undisputed leader at third base for the Twins in 2011 and beyond.
2. Austin Jackson, CF, Detroit Tigers
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When incumbent center fielder Curtis Granderson was involved in three-team trade between the Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Yankees, young center fielder Austin Jackson was included in the deal, giving him the opportunity to show his stuff with the Tigers.
Jackson took the opportunity and ran with it, hitting .293 with four home runs, 41 runs batted in and 27 stolen bases.
Jackson also led the American League in strikeouts with 170. However, at just 24 years of age, Jackson will no doubt learn better plate discipline as he continues his development.
This season, Jackson reported to spring training 10 pounds heavier, adding some bulk and already showing increased power during batting practice.
1. Neftali Feliz, RP, Texas Rangers
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Right-handed closer Neftali Feliz was electric for the Texas Rangers in 2010, with 40 saves, a 2.73 earned run average and 71 strikeouts in 69.1 innings. Feliz was a huge part of the Rangers’ drive to the American League pennant, and for his efforts, Feliz was named the American League Rookie of the Year for 2010.
In 2011, there were grumblings that Feliz would be moved to the starting rotation, similar to what former closer C.J. Wilson experienced in 2010. And Feliz has been working this spring to stretch himself out, looking very good in the process.
With a three-digit fastball and his repertoire of other pitches, manager Ron Washington believes that Feliz can gain the same success in his transition as Wilson did last year.
"It's an opportunity for him to get out there and have a chance to use all his pitches," Washington told ESPN Dallas on Friday. "As an organization, we just want to make sure we don't shortchange this kid. That's why we want to give him a chance to see if he can start."
As to who would close games for the Rangers in 2011, Washington said that both Mark Lowe and Alexi Ogando are candidates at this point.
For his part, Feliz has said it doesn’t matter which role he is in; all he wants to do is continue contributing to the success of the Texas Rangers, much like he did in 2010.
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