MLB Predictions: Can the 2010 Top 9 NL Rookies Avoid the Sophomore Jinx?
Ever since the great Jackie Robinson won the first Rookie of the Year award in 1947, each and every winner has endeavored to continue on to even greater accolades and awards during their careers. However, of the 128 total winners of the award, given to one player from each league annually, only 14 of those players have been enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame, lending credence to the belief that the Rookie of the Year award is in no way a harbinger of bigger and better things.
In fact, quite a few players famously flamed out after winning the prestigious rookie award. Bob Hamelin won the award in 1994 as the designated hitter for the Kansas City Royals, and was out of baseball after four more seasons. Joe Charboneau of the Cleveland Indians may be one of the most classic cases of the sophomore jinx. In 1980, Charboneau was voted Rookie of the Year in the American League after hitting .289 with 23 home runs and 87 runs batted in. However, the following year he was demoted to the minors, becoming the first major leaguer ever to be demoted the year after winning the award. Charboneau was out of baseball by 1983.
In 1976, Butch Metzger was a highly considered pitching prospect for the San Diego Padres, winning the Rookie of the Year award after posting a record of 11-4 and appearing in 77 games with 16 saves. However, Metzger was unable to harness his control, winning only five more games in his career and completely flaming out in 1978.
There are quite a few other players who the Rookie of the Award, yet failed to build on what looked to be a promising career (think Mark Fidrych, John Castino, Pat Listach, Eric Hinske). While they may have played a few years, they never capitalized on their initial successes.
The 2011 season promises to be no different, no matter what the successes may have looked like for rookies in 2010. Inevitably, at least a few of them will completely flame out, and if going by historical analysis, only about 12 percent of last year’s rookie class will have a shot at Hall of Fame greatness.
Today, we will take a look at last year’s rookie crop in the National League (at least those who garnered ROY votes), and while not making any assumptions, we’ll let you make the call as to which players out of this class may flame out, or go on to further greatness.
9. Jonny Venters, RP, Atlanta Braves
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Jonny Venters burst onto the scene last year for the Atlanta Braves and impressed right from the start. The flame-throwing left-hander appeared in 77 games, finishing with a 1.95 earned run average and struck out 93 in 83 innings of work.
Venters also finished with an impressive strikeout-per-walk ratio of 2.38, and figures to be an important asset to first-year manager Fredi Gonzalez in the bullpen for the 2011 season, and possibly beyond.
8. Jose Tabata, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Jose Tabata was a mid-season call up for the Pittsburgh Pirates, playing in his first major league on June 10 and promptly lacing a single in his very first at-bat.
Tabata never really slowed down, ending up the season hitting .299 with four home runs, 35 runs batted in, and stole 19 bases. Tabata also led all left fielders in the National League with a ranger factor per game of 2.09.
While Tabata was listed at 22 years old, the Pirates have acknowledged that he could actually be older, alleging that there may have been inconsistencies reported with his actual date of birth by Latin American authorities, who typically alter the ages of players who may have a shot of playing in the major leagues.
7. Ike Davis, 1B, New York Mets
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First baseman Ike Davis was called up by the New York Mets from triple-A Buffalo on April 19 last season, and pretty much never left the lineup after that. Davis ended up hitting .264 with 19 home runs and 71 runs batted in, and set the Mets rookie record for total bases (230), and tied the team rookie records for walks (72) and extra-base hits (53).
Terry Collins, the new manager of the Mets, told ESPNNewYork.com that he envisions Davis as his clean-up hitter of the future.
“I can see Ike Davis in the future certainly being that legitimate No. 4-hole hitter. Ike Davis is a power hitter, and I'm not going to ever ask him to be a singles hitter,” Collins said.
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6. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
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20-year-old Starlin Castro broke into the majors with the Chicago Cubs on May 7 last season, becoming the first major leaguer to play who was born in the ‘90s.
Castro did nothing to disappoint despite his young age, hitting .300 with 3 home runs and 41 runs batted in, and finished a strong fifth in Rookie of the Year balloting.
Castro did not necessarily impress at the shortstop position, committing 27 errors, second-most in the National League.
5. Neil Walker, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Neil Walker originally began his major league on May 25 last season with the Pittsburgh Pirates as a third baseman. However, with incumbent second baseman Akinori Iwamura struggling mightily, Pirates manager John Russell moved Walker to second, where he played, and excelled, as the Pirates everyday second baseman.
Walker would go on to hit 12 home runs with 66 runs batted in while hitting .296, and his 54 RBIs after the All-Star break tied with Albert Pujols for the third most in the National League.
Walker proved to be a more than adequate fielder as well at his new position, committing only seven errors in 105 games.
4. Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Florida Marlins
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After making a couple of token appearances in both 2008 and 2009, Gaby Sanchez started the 2010 as the regular first baseman for the Florida Marlins. Sanchez put up very solid numbers for the Marlins, hitting .273 with 19 home runs and 85 runs batted in.
The right-handed slugger figures to be a staple in the lineup for Edwin Rodriguez after the trade that sent second baseman Dan Uggla to the Atlanta Braves.
Sanchez is a local fan favorite as well, having played his high school at nearby Brito High School in Miami and starring for the University of Miami.
3. Jaime Garcia, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
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It’s not often that a rookie starting pitcher becomes the third starter in a major league rotation, but that’s exactly what happened to Jaime Garcia in 2010.
Garcia won the role as fifth starter coming out of camp for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2010, but quickly established himself as a legitimate number three starter.
Garcia proved to be a more than reliable option in the Cardinals rotation behind Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter, posting a record of 13-8 with a 2.70 earned run average, good for fourth in the National League.
At 24 years of age, Garcia has tremendous upside, and with one of the best pitching coaches in history in Dave Duncan, Garcia figures to continue figuring prominently in the Cardinals’ rotation for the future.
2. Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta Braves
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Young Jason Heyward was considered the top prospect in baseball by Baseball America, ESPN and MLB.com for the 2010 season, and Heyward really did nothing to dissuade those opinions.
Making his first major league start on April 5, Heyward launched a prodigious blast that traveled an estimated 475 feet against the Chicago Cubs and Carlos Zambrano, and became only the fifth player in the history of the Atlanta Braves to hit a home run in his first at-bat.
Heyward was named Rookie of the Month in both April and May, and finished the season with 18 home runs and 72 runs batted in, while batting .277.
Heyward was also selected to the National League All-Star team, and was named Rookie of the Year by Baseball America.
This spring, Atlanta set up temporary tents at their spring training complex behind the right field fence, to protect the cars from becoming damaged from the batting practice swings of Heyward.
1. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
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To say that the San Francisco Giants were waiting for Buster Posey would be a vast understatement. Posey was the fifth overall selection in the 2008 Major League Baseball Draft and made his debut with the Giants just a year later. Last season, Posey was called up on May 29, and the Giants were 25-22 before his arrival. With Posey in the lineup, the Giants went 67-48 to win the NL West Division Title, and their first World Series championship since 1954.
Posey finished the season with a .305 batting average, with 18 home runs and 67 runs batted in. His skills behind the plate were impressive as well, throwing out 23 of 62 would-be base stealers for a 37 percent success rate, and gaining overall praise for his handling of the Giants’ pitching staff.
Posey also didn’t wilt under the pressure of the playoffs, hitting .282 in the first two rounds, and hitting .300 in the World Series, with one home run and two runs batted in.
Posey became just the sixth player from the San Francisco Giants to win the Rookie of the Year award, and just the sixth catcher in the National League.
And really, can you come up with a better baseball name than Buster Posey?
Who is your choice to be the next victim of the sophomore jinx?
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History has taught us that at least one of the players will fall victim to the dreaded sophomore jinx. While the nine players listed certainly all had very impressive career beginnings, as noted earlier in our journey, it certainly does not guarantee future success.
Give us your best guess as to which player you feel will fall victim to the infamous sophomore jinx. Let us know in the comments section down below!
We will feature last year’s rookie crop from the American League on Thursday.
For continuing coverage of Major League Baseball, follow Doug on Twitter @Sports_A_Holic.
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