Oakland Athletics: Realistic Expectations For The First Four Starters
With the beginning of Spring Training now a week gone, the focus shifts to opening day. What will the roster look like? How will the team avoid injuries during Spring Training? Who will be the opening day starter?
And most importantly, how will the team do this season?
All the other questions pale in comparison to the last one. How will the team perform? Will they be contenders or pretenders?
The A's, as always will depend on their pitching, and while the fifth starter spot is probably going to take a while to determine, the first four are already a certainty.
With that, let's take a look at some realistic expectations for the starting pitching.
Brett Anderson
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Brett Anderson, certainly the A's number one pitcher alphabetically, is probably also their most talented. The only thing that has hindered him in his first two season are injuries that limited him to only 19 starts and 112.1 innings.
His strikeout rate dropped last year, probably due his injuries, but if can return to his form of 2009, which saw him strike out 150 in 175 innings, he could be in for a very good season.
Given his evident fragility, I believe a reasonable goal is a record of 14-8, with 170 strikeouts and a 3.40 ERA in 27 starts. If he proves he is a durable starter, those numbers are all but guaranteed to increase. If so, Anderson could prove himself to be the ace of the staff sooner than later.
Dallas Braden
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Mr. Perfect wasn't so perfect following his historic May 9th start. Actually he wasn't terrible, his record just didn't reflect his season.
After his perfect game, Dallas Braden went 7-12 the remainder of the season but his ERA still finished at a very respectable 3.50. A forgettable September pushed his win percentage below .500 and ballooned his ERA a bit.
Braden pitched sixty more innings than any other time in his big league career and was forced to be the defacto ace of the staff despite not having his best stuff the second half of the season.
With another season of experience, I expect Braden to slightly improve his numbers. Given the A's improved offense a 14-10 record with a 3.40 ERA, and 120 strikeouts in 34 starts are realistic goals for Mr. Perfect.
Trevor Cahill
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The A's lone All-Star last year, certainly pitched like it for much of the season. Remember he didn't even star the season at the big league level. Despite being limited to thirty starts he racked up career best wins (18) and ERA (2.97). Yeah, so best of two seasons, still good.
The one and one half knocks on Cahill are his low strike out rate and the idea that his luck couldn't have been any better last year. His batting average of balls in play last year was .236, the lowest of any qualified pitcher over the last three seasons. Basically, although the A's defense was good, it wasn't that good and he is due for a regression.
What Cahill did show last year was his ability to win games regardless of fluky statistics. 18 wins and a sub 3.00 ERA are nothing to scoff at and he has the ability to produce similar numbers in 2011.
I don't think he will be as good, but will still give the A's a 16-9 record with 130 strikeouts and a 3.30 ERA in 33 starts.
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Gio Gonzalez
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For me Gio is the big wild card next season. He put together a phenomenal season where he topped 200 innings while posting a 15-9 record with 171 strikeouts and a 3.23 ERA.
The real question about him is his walk rate which at 1.86 K/BB is one the lowest (or highest, depending on how you look at it) in the league.
If he can cut down on his walks, better than 2.50 K/BB in 2011, he could be a top 20 starter in the AL. A's pitchers nearly always seem to progress year to year and I'd like to believe the same with Gio. A gutsy prediction of 17-10 with 206 strikeouts and a 3.12 ERA in 34 starts would be boon to the A's playoff chances.
What It All Means?
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| Projections | GS | W-L | K | ERA |
| Brett Anderson | 27 | 14-8 | 170 | 3.40 |
| Dallas Braden | 34 | 14-10 | 120 | 3.40 |
| Trevor Cahill | 33 | 16-9 | 130 | 3.30 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 34 | 17-10 | 206 | 3.12 |
If the first four starters can avoid injuries and turn in numbers as projected, the A's can count on a big push for October baseball. In addition to whomever the is fifth starter and whatever they can produce, the A's starting rotation looks to be in the top ten if not the top five in baseball.
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