Albert Pujols Vs. CC Sabathia: Which Superstar Is More Likely to Leave?
After a 2010 free agent market that, aside from Cliff Lee, really was not all that impressive, the 2011 free agent market is starting to look incredible.
Albert Pujols talks with the St. Louis Cardinals are not going well, and the odds of him signing a contract before the noon deadline tomorrow is virtually nil. It has become known as well that CC Sabathia has an opt out clause in his contract, and can become a free agent after this season and look for more money elsewhere.
Having the best hitter of this era and one of the best pitchers of this era in the same free agent market will undoubtedly cause fireworks should it actually happen. Then again, both players could easily re-sign with their own teams and knock down this upcoming free agent class's quality.
Which one of these two superstars is actually more likely to leave?
Pujols 5: If He Was Staying in St. Louis, He Would Have Already Signed
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One of the key things I learned as a Cleveland Cavaliers fan is that if a player is serious about wanting to stay, they're not going to wait until free agency to negotiate a deal. I learned that the hard way.
With Pujols likely not signing by the deadline, the St. Louis Cardinals will be stuck in that same predicament, thinking they can keep their superstar when he may have his eyes set on another destination. The Cardinals will obviously offer as much as they can, but if Prince Albert wants to play elsewhere, then nothing is stopping him.
Sabathia 5: If He Opts-Out, Then He Won't Re-Sign
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By that same measure, if Sabathia opts out of his contract, then the Yankees are not going to be very thrilled about offering him another contract. It will be a sign that either he doesn't want to play in New York or that he's only in it for the money.
The first one is certainly untrue, as New York fans do not have a problem with him. If the second one is true and he's already accomplished what he was going to in New York, then Brian Cashman will be reluctant about signing him to another immense deal.
Pujols 4: He Can Get More Sponsorship Deals Elsewhere
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The advertising game in professional sports can be, at times, just as big a deal as the game itself. Playing for a small market team when you're a superstar can net you far less than if you played somewhere such as New York or Los Angeles.
Albert Pujols has the hardware, but does not necessarily have the sponsorship deals nationally that would go along with that. Do I agree that moving to a new teams to get these deals is a smart move? Absolutely not, but Pujols could feel very differently about that.
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Sabathia 4: Yankees Could Be On The Way Down
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It sounds ridiculous on the surface to say that the Yankees could be struggling soon, but think about it. Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada are all getting up there in years and their departures in another couple years could create holes in the lineup. Already, Andy Pettitte's departure has left a void.
If any team can plug these kind of holes without much to worry about, it would be the Yankees. Even knowing this, Sabathia has his title to go along with his Cy Young Award, so he may want to get out and join a different strong team while the going's good.
Pujols 3: He's at His Peak Right Now
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Saying that Albert Pujols is at his peak may be a bit of a misnomer, since it looks like his whole career has been a peak. He is 31 and will be 32 when he hits the free agent market, so if he's going to test the market at any time in his career, it would be now.
His career numbers show that he could keep going for another eight years, and is likely to get a huge contract as a result. To put his numbers in perspective, he posted a career low batting average (.312) and had his most strikeouts since his rookie year with an enormous 76.
Anyone who never seemed to get off peak numbers will be looked at by all teams.
Sabathia 3: He's at His Peak Right Now
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While Albert Pujols has always seemed to post top-level numbers, it is clear by looking at the stats that CC Sabathia is currently in top form. Nonetheless, in his first six seasons in Cleveland he had good numbers: an 81-56 record, a 3.95 ERA, 933 strikeouts, and over 1,000 innings pitched.
Those numbers may not be clear ace-quality, but they are very good. If you look at his numbers from 2007 onward, he has a 76-32 record and a 3.11 ERA alongside 854 strikeouts. Those numbers are what you pay $20 million plus a year for, there's no question about that.
Despite his innings pitched increasing greatly in those seasons, he not only seemed to not get tired, but got even better down the stretch. He's hit the rhythm in his pitching that I knew he had when he arrived in 2001, and it will be some time before he starts to slow down.
Pujols 2: He Can Get More Money in a Big Market
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Going off on the sponsorship note, baseball is a feudal system. Whether we like it or not, you have the $50 million teams and you have the $200 million teams. The St. Louis cardinals have a pretty decent market, and fall in the middle of the pack, leaning towards the big markets, as they are one of the teams with over $100 spent on its players this season.
It is likely going to cost in the neighborhood of $30 million per year to sign Pujols. A team with $100 million in space taking on that contract is a much greater investment than a team with $150 or 200 million in space doing the same.
As an example, the Mets and Cubs look to spend around $140 million this year when it's all said and done. They also have a slew of expiring contracts, such as Carlos Beltran and Carlos Pena. They can afford to take on Pujols' demands if that falls their way, whereas the Cardinals may not be able to.
Sabathia 2: An Ace Pitcher Can Get a More Lucrative Deal
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The hardest position to fill in baseball is the role of the ace starting pitcher.
You can have an amazing lineup lead by a presumptive MVP, but if your starting rotation does not have a clear ace, or if it doesn't have the personnel to last in the playoffs, then that team's not going to win. After all, that's what the Milwaukee Brewers spent the entire offseason fixing, looking for the dominant ace they have not had since, well, Sabathia.
CC Sabathia has emerged as one such ace that can take a team on his back and guide them through the gauntlet that is the playoffs. As a result, teams will be clamoring left and right, and one could easily give him a deal that's just too good to pass up.
Pujols 1: If Cardinals Sign Him, Can They Afford Others?
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Perhaps the biggest obstacle between the Cardinals and Pujols is not how much is being asked on either side of the table directly. Instead, the problem could fall with the other players on the Cardinals' roster.
The Cardinals already have Matt Holliday signed to a long term deal worth $17 million each year. Adding Pujols' $30 million to that means that the Cardinals may have only $50 million or so to give to all the other players.
Why is this a problem? For starters, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Yadier Molina will all have team options upwards of $7 million over the next couple seasons. From there, Wainwright would likely leave when free agency hits due to money being tight and Chris Carpenter would probably be ready to retire by then.
Now, you suddenly have a few superstars without the supporting cast needed for them. The Cardinals know this, and may not be able to give Pujols what every side admits he deserves.
Sabathia 1: He Is Much Less Likely to Last Long-Term
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If I had to pick which player I would want over a two or three year period, I don't know if I could make that decision. If you bump it up to a seven or eight year period, the choice becomes easier, and I would take Pujols.
Why is that? Simply put, Sabathia has had four straight seasons of 230 innings pitched or more. By comparison, Johan Santana had four of five consecutive seasons with around 230 innings, and has since had two merely good years with the Mets, both with inning counts under 200.
What I'm trying to say is that it's very difficult for a pitcher to be a workhorse season after season, especially with that inning count. Pitching 200 innings year in and year out, pitching 230 is another matter.
I'm glad that Sabathia has slimmed down this past offseason, as it should help keep this streak going for an extra season or two, but he could burn out well before his contract is over.
Conclusion
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So, which player is more likely to actually don another uniform in 2012? Ideally, I would prefer both stay on their current teams, but if one is going to leave, it will be Pujols.
If CC is really all about the money right now, then where better to get it than the Yankees? By that same token, other teams could offer more lucrative deals for Pujols than the Cardinals may be able to.
If keeping Albert Pujols for the remainder of the career prevents the Cardnals from actually being competitive, then I think they'll move beyond him. Their PR department will have a terrible 2012 getting everything straightened out, but it may be the move they have to make, even if nobody actually wants them to make it.
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