MLB Predictions: The Phillies' "Fab Five" Will Be Even Better Than Expected
Spring Training is upon us, and boy does it feel good. Even on Valentine's Day, the predominant feeling in the city of Philadelphia revolves around the future and not the present.
"I can't wait for Opening Day."
Of course, that feeling is mutual across the United States, as baseball players of all shapes and sizes head to Florida and Arizona to prepare for a long-anticipated season.
In Philadelphia, the season could not be any harder to wait for, despite being just under two months away. The reason? A resurgent, healthy offense and a fierce competition developing in right field that will have fans on their toes all spring long.
I'm kidding, of course. The good people of Philadelphia and the baseball world alike were waiting in eager anticipation to see the Phillies' starting rotation gathered around the same table.
After hearing that the Phillies had signed Cliff Lee in December, this day could not have been any harder to wait for. Though we knew they were going to be wearing the same uniforms come Opening Day, it was almost too good to be true until we saw the likes of Roy Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton all sitting at a table surrounded by a Super Bowl-like crowd of media personnel.
With the Phillies insignia embroidered across their chests, I got to thinking, just how good can this rotation be?
Each of these guys, Blanton included, could be really good in 2011. They're like a happy family. According to multiple reports from this morning, the Phillies' "Fab Five," as I'm so affectionately calling them, enjoyed one another's company for breakfast.
Watching the press conference, it seems like these guys have been together forever. They joked and poked fun at the media. They laughed, they cried.
OK, maybe I'm getting a bit carried away here. As Lee said, the group hasn't thrown a single pitch yet, and as Halladay quipped, "We've been together for what...two hours?"
Despite all that, I decided to crunch some numbers and offer up my own set of bold predictions for the Phillies' rotation heading into 2011.
Roy Halladay Will Win 25 Games in 2011, Throw a No-Hitter
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I'm just not sure how to put just how good Roy Halladay is into words. From the Phillies' perspective, he was so good, they were comfortable sending Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners for a few fringe prospects before the 2010 season. With 2010 now in the rear view mirror, the man certainly did not disappoint.
In his first season with the Phillies, Halladay posted a record of 21-10, with an ERA of 2.44. He punched out 219 batters and walked just 30. Including nine complete games, he logged more than 250 innings. I just don't know what more you can say about the man. Without a doubt, he is the best pitcher in the game.
Therefore, when it comes to mind that the guy could be even better in 2011, you figure something has to give.
When it was originally reported that Halladay was on his way to Philadelphia, fans and analysts alike joked that Halladay could win 30 games with a potent Phillies offense behind him. Well, as it turns out, the Phillies' offense was all out of potent, and they struggled to give Halladay the run support he deserved.
A look at Halladay's game log shows a couple of interesting facts. Firstly, if the Phillies had provided him with some offense, they could have turned all 25 of his quality starts into wins. When you factor in some of the games that Halladay didn't have his best stuff, the Phillies' offense came up "just short" on several occasions. Realistically, Halladay winning 29 games, by my count, was not out of the question in 2011.
Now, we look to a 2011 season where several major components of the Phillies' offense are expected to rebound with big seasons. Entering contract years, fans can expect big things out of Jimmy Rollins and Raul Ibanez, while Chase Utley, Placido Polanco and Ryan Howard will take the field fully healthy. Frankly, the offense is looking more potent than ever.
Bold Prediction: Halladay wins 25 games in 2011, including at least one no-hitter.
Cliff Lee's Performance Finally Equates to Wins; Joins Halladay in 20-Win Club
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When you take a look at Cliff Lee's numbers from 2010, they're a bit perplexing, to say the least. In a season where he led the league in Wins Above Replacement for a pitcher (7.1), he threw up some incredible complementary stats as well.
On his way to striking out 185 hitters, he walked a minuscule number of batters—just 18. He threw seven complete games and the opposition managed to hit just .237 against him.
So while making 28 starts for the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners, he won...just 12 games?
The reason is actually pretty simple. During the first half of the season, which he spent with the Mariners, the Seattle offense was putrid. He was at the bottom of the league in run support during his time there and after moving to Texas at the trade deadline, started picking up some wins.
After signing his $120 million deal, it's clear the 12-9 record didn't hurt his value.
For most of the reasons on the Roy Halladay slide, it isn't hard to imagine Lee winning 20-games in 2011. In his last full season with a single team, he won 22 games for the Cleveland Indians back in 2008. Now he'll benefit from several key factors, including security and a strong offense behind him.
It's hard to imagine a pitcher with such pinpoint control and great numbers not winning 20 games, so I'm not sure how much of a bold prediction this actually is. While I won't go so far as to say he could have a Halladay-like first full season in Philadelphia, I do believe he replicates his 2010 season, where his K/BB was an incredible 10.25.
Anyway you shake it, that's going to turn into wins in Philadelphia.
Bold Prediction: Lee wins at least 20 games, and dazzles with his command and ability to pound the strike zone.
What? Three 20-Game Winners?! Roy Oswalt Has One of the Best Years of His Career
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During today's press conference, Roy Oswalt didn't seem all too excited, but that's not out of the ordinary. When you factor into the equation that he was asked one legitimate question, that's not surprising either.
When asked if he was still contemplating retirement, Oswalt told the media, "I'll play this year. See how it goes. See where my body's at."
He said it as cool as a cucumber, too. With Halladay and Lee in the rotation before him, Oswalt has to be pretty darn happy, on the inside. After spending years as the ace of a weak Houston Astros ballclub, Oswalt is now a co-ace in Philadelphia, and as any one of those five guys in this rotation would have told you today, they don't care where they're pitching in the order—they just want to win.
Without a single ring to his credit, no man showed that will to win more than Oswalt in 2010. After starting the season with the mundane Astros, posting a record of 6-12, the revitalized Oswalt caught fire with the Phillies, posting a new record of 7-1, with an ERA of 2.76.
While some people seem to be under the impression that Oswalt was off to a slow start, that couldn't be any more false. Capped off by his great stint with the Phillies, Oswalt finished the year leading the National League in WHIP (1.03) and finishing sixth in the NL Cy Young voting.
This wasn't the first time a veteran pitcher was rejuvenated by a playoff push, and it certainly won't be the last. In fact, it's extremely exciting to see what Oswalt can do over the course of an entire season in Philadelphia, and for the sake of this slideshow, we're thinking big.
Let's split Oswalt's 2010 WHIP in half. With the Astros in the first half, his WHIP was 1.11. In the second half with the Phillies, his WHIP was an incredible 0.90. Assuming that over the course of an entire season in Philadelphia, he maintains similar rates, that would put his 2011 WHIP right around 1.05.
That would put him in a class with Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, Jered Weaver and Felix Hernandez—each of whom has the potential to win 20 games in 2011. If he maintains his strong strikeout (8.21 K/9) and walk (2.34 BB/9) rates, there is no reason he shouldn't win 20 games in 2011.
Bold Prediction: Oswalt also wins 20 games, leads the National League in WHIP once again, and is a strong candidate to capture the 2011 NL Cy Young award.
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An Improbable Foursome: Cole Hamels Wins 20 Games, Leads NL in Strikeouts
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Since I'm going with a "bold predictions" theme, I might as well use a "bold analysis" as well. For that, I'll only be using Hamels' second half to project his 2011 season.
A baseball season is sort of like a marathon, and pitchers must make adjustments as they move forward. Hamels' adjustment came right around midseason, when his cutter was finally developing into the out-pitch that pitching coach Rich Dubee thought it could be. After adding the cutter, Hamels was practically untouchable, developing into one of baseball's top starters.
As was the story with most of these guys, the Phillies offense wasn't very good to Hamels in 2010, becoming the major contributor to his overall 12-11 record. Even his splits, (7-7 before the All-Star break; 5-4 after) show the inconsistency of the once-potent offense.
His ERA, on the other hand, tells an interesting story. Over the first half of the season, his ERA was an acceptable 3.78. However, the stat that pushed him into the "ace" conversation emerged after the All-Star break, when he posted an ERA of just 2.23.
Combined with the aforementioned 5-4 record and 2.23 ERA, Hamels threw up a few more impressive numbers. He struck out 104 batters after the All-Star break while walking just 22. The most impressive of his numbers, however, were probably the number of home runs he allowed.
Over the first half of the season, he allowed a whopping 19 home runs. After the All-Star break? Just seven.
With an incredible second half under his belt, it's no surprise folks are high on Hamels. In fact, Ken Rosenthal of FOXsports.com has already chosen Hamels as his pick to win the 2011 NL Cy Young award, and while I'm not sure I agree with him, I certainly do agree that he's good enough to win 20 games.
As for leading the league in strikeouts?
I just think he's good enough to do it, with a full season of that nasty cutter under his beck and call.
Bold Prediction: Hamels wins 20 games, leads league with 230+ strikeouts.
Joe Blanton Isn't Quite as Good as "R2C2," But Has Impressive Season Regardless
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The real question is, what is an impressive season for Joe Blanton?
Blanton had his best year with the Oakland Athletics in 2007, when he gathered a record of 14-10 and compiled an ERA of 3.95. A quick glance at some of his advanced stats show that he was actually, dare I say, a top-of-the-rotation arm.
His Fielding Independent Pitching was 3.50, and his 5.6 WAR—you may want to take a seat for this impressive fact—was the same amount of WAR gathered by former Toronto Blue Jays starter Roy Halladay. In fact, only CC Sabathia and Josh Beckett had more WAR than Blanton in the American League in 2007.
To sum things up, Blanton isn't as bad as some people think. He has the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation arm. For whatever reason, he's never realized that potential in Philadelphia. With that being said, he's never been a fifth starter in Philadelphia, either.
For the first few weeks of the season, he'll match up with the opposition's No. 5 starters. In terms of the National League East, that means some potential matchups for Blanton will include bouts against Mike Minor, Jennry Mejia, Chris Volstad and John Lannan.
You have to like Blanton's chances, in that case.
However, as the season moves on, those matchups are going to decrease in likelihood, with off-days and things of the sort factoring into the schedule. For that reason alone, you can expect Blanton to have his usual ups and downs.
Nevertheless, the pressure for Blanton to succeed is at an all-time low, and one would assume this plays well in his favor. He could have an impressive season, especially after going 6-1 with a 3.48 ERA after the All-Star break.
Assuming he remains with the Phillies throughout the season, he could hang some impressive numbers.
Bold Prediction: Blanton wins 15 games as the team's fifth starter.
A Regular Season for the History Books
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It's a little hard not to be excited about this rotation, regardless of what team you're a fan of. In case you missed it, two Cy Young winners, two NLCS MVP's, a WS MVP and three 20-game winners are gathering in the same clubhouse and running out to the hill every fifth day for the Phillies.
With all that taken into consideration, it's hard not to expect some impressive results.
Therefore, in case you're keeping score, I'm predicting that the Phillies' starting rotation will win at least 100 games, alone. If that isn't bold enough for you, I'm not sure what rustles your feathers!
Of course, a lot of that is going to rely on what the Phillies' offense can do over the course of an entire season, but that's another discussion in and of itself. One through eight, their lineup can produce, so, once again, it's hard not to expect big things.
It's incredible to believe there's a chance a team can milk their starting rotation for 100 wins, but think about it for a second.
It could happen.
Following an impressive season that sees him go 25-3 with an ERA below 3.00, Roy Halladay will also be named the NL Cy Young winner once again—unanimously. To make things even more interesting, I'll predict that four of the Phillies' starting five—Halladay, Lee, Oswalt and Hamels—will finish in the top five for Cy Young voting.
The only other starter to crack the list? Adam Wainwright of the St. Louis Cardinals.
Postseason Heroics
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Forever the optimist, I'll leave you with a few final, bold predictions. For starters, I'll give you the National League divisional winners.
With the rotation being far too much for any other team to handle, the Phillies win their fifth consecutive division title with ease. In fact, the gap is so wide, the NL Wild Card does not come out of the NL East.
The San Francisco Giants win the West, but with their magical run over, do not make it out of the NLDS. In a much improved Central, the Cincinnati Reds will win the division once again, as the Milwaukee Brewers return to the postseason with one last chance at a title with Prince Fielder under contract.
As it turns out, the Phillies will wind up facing the Brewers once again in the NLDS, while the Reds square off with the Giants. In the series out West, the Reds' offense gets the best of a tired Giants staff, advancing easily in four games.
Back on the East Coast, the Phillies make quick work of the Brewers as if it's 2008, as the front three of Halladay, Lee and Oswalt prove to be too much for Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum to handle.
In the NLCS, we'll see much of the same the NLDS had to offer in 2010. While the Reds' offense will put up a fight, they'll quickly be stifled by a strong Phillies rotation. After three strong performances by Halladay, Lee and Oswalt, Hamels gives up just two hits in the clincher, as the Phils head back to the World Series.
Of course, as much of an optimist as I am, I can't see them losing here. While the Boston Red Sox are the early favorites to represent the American League, I'll go against the grain and make a surprise pick—the Chicago White Sox. Adam Dunn provides a huge jolt for that lineup, and after missing the first few starts of the season, a resurgent Jake Peavy shows why the White Sox took a chance on him.
However, in the World Series, it isn't even close. Long after the NL wins the All-Star Game, the Phillies sweep the White Sox right out of the World Series and recapture glory, as the denizens of Philadelphia take to Broad Street for the first night of a long celebration.
It's "Aces' Wild" in Philadelphia.
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.jpg?w=600 "Biggest Winners and Losers After 30 Games ⚾")