2011 NFL Draft: A Qualitative Analysis of This Year's QB Class
That loud uproar you hear ringing in your ears is coming from Charlotte. Why? The Panthers still can't get over the fact Andrew Luck decided to go back to Stanford for another year.
That high-pitched screaming you hear that won't leave the depths of your ear drums is coming from the other 10 cities where quarterbacks are needed, yet happen to be in short supply in this draft.
In my opinion, is there only one absolute first-round quarterback prospect in this draft, and he likely will not be picked until the third or fourth round.
There are four or five others being touted in that regard, but after careful examination of the tape, I simply cannot give any of those guys higher than third-round grades.
There is another interesting dynamic to this draft—there are many different types of quarterbacks. This is a trend that has been pushing itself upon the NFL for a few years now and it seems to be culminating, or at least making its presence most obvious, this year.
You have your guys coming from true spread offenses, others coming from pro-style offenses and then you have a few guys who have been taught much of the pro-style offense but ran mostly a spread-style in order to fit the needs of the team.
Among this class there are many guys who remind us of current NFL QBs who are having great success, and those eerily similar to QBs who have yet to strike the ever-fleeting branch of NFL superiority.
Because of the diversity among this group, I thought a better way to organize my rankings was to categorize them by their traits, or how they seem to fit at the next level, rather than a one-through-whatever as is so common.
Next to each player's name there will be a draft-round grade (my personal opinion of which round they should go in) and the order that puts them within the greater context of these players.
But make no mistake, ranking them is the most difficult of tasks, and therefore I am much more interested in evaluation and vision for how that player fits into the NFL than the comparison amongst them.
1. The Lone Ranger Colin Kaepernick, Nevada; Grade: Mid 1st Round; Rank: 1
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When I started the process of evaluating this class of quarterbacks, I didn't expect Kaepernick to be the guy that stood out among the group. But after watching about 100 hours of film, Kaepernick did exactly that.
The more I watched Kaepernick, the more I was blown away by his arm strength and ability to control where the ball was going. He was more accurate on long balls than some of the guys were on short passes.
And of course his acceleration and burst as a runner is outstanding. These two qualities lead me to believe this guy is really a cross between Sam Bradford (mostly because technique-wise they look so similar) and Michael Vick, at least potentially.
No QB in this draft, or perhaps ever, is this athletic, with this great of an arm and the ability to put the ball where he wants it whenever he wants to.
Of course there are some real questions about Kaepernick.
First, can he take snaps from under center, take a three-, five- or seven-step drop and read a defense?
Second, is his frame going to allow him to take the punishment of massive defensive linemen crushing him on 90 percent of dropbacks?
Third, is his throwing technique going to allow him to be a consistently accurate passer?
My personal opinion is that he will provide a resounding YES to those questions with his play. But only time will tell.
For a more detailed scouting report, click here.
The Look Alikes
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This group is made up of guys who I know will be drafted much lower than I have them projected. These are not your freakishly talented guys (next group up) but they are all seniors and winners.
And they all remind me almost to a tee of a current successful NFL QB.
I expect a lot of arguments specifically about this group of quarterbacks, mainly because few people in their right mind would consider these guys above the next class.
It is important to note that my reasoning is because I truly believe these guys will have better NFL careers, not because I think they are more talented or have a higher ceiling than the next group, because that would be insane for me to think.
The common denominator among this group is their leadership ability, moxie, smarts, and coach-on-the-field type presence. These guys are highly unlikely to be busts, and are all worst-case scenario good career backups.
Like I said, this draft is not the strongest at the quarterback position.
Greg McElroy, Alabama; Grade: Late 2nd; Rank: 2
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Strong Points
McElroy is mentally ready for the NFL right now. His ability to read defenses and make the right decision is rare for the college level. He has the arm strength to make every NFL throw and understands an NFL-style passing game already. Most of all he’s a winner and a leader who even as a backup would make a team better.
Areas of Improvement Needed
Size is a bit of an issue for McElroy as is the fact the ball doesn’t come out of his arm like a frozen rope. His size will lead to some tipped balls and could cause him to struggle looking over the line. He needs to improve throwing accurately against pressure, although he does step into these throws.
Summary
McElroy is probably my favorite QB in this draft. He is fundamentally sound and I cannot help but compare him, at least in style, to Drew Brees. Their throwing motions are so similar and like Brees, McElroy is very intelligent as well as a strong leader and hard worker. Nobody questions Greg’s ability to mentally handle an NFL playbook or to handle an NFL locker room. He’s proven those abilities.
The only real question is whether the talent in the arm and otherwise is there. In my opinion it is, and is actually better than some of most people's top prospects (see Christian Ponder). I think Greg can be an outstanding NFL QB.
For a more detailed scouting report click here.
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Ricky Stanzi, Iowa; Grade: Late 2nd Round; Rank: 3
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Strong Points
Stanzi is a big-bodied QB w/a big arm. He can make all the NFL throws and has experience doing so playing in a pro-style offense. He has good technique and footwork while his decision-making leads to a low interception rate and improving accuracy. Finally, he throws well on the run.
Areas of Improvement Needed
He is still a bit raw. He often throws deep ball too far. Stanzi tends to hold on to the football in nickel situations leading to sacks. At other times he will checkdown too quickly.
Summary
Stanzi enters without a lot of fanfare regarding his draft stock, yet I was pleasantly surprised by the film. While not the most accurate QB in this class, he can make all the NFL throws and has experience doing so in big moments at a realistic game speed.
Being from a program such as Iowa where winning is just part of playing football, Stanzi will help whatever team he goes to. Body-wise and technique-wise he is a little reminiscent of a Tom Brady without the same kind of accuracy. Ideally, Stanzi would go to a West Coast offense which uses a lot of play-action passes to get their big plays down the field (San Francisco comes to mind as a perfect fit).
For a more detailed scouting report click here.
Pat Devlin, Delaware; Grade: Early 3rd Round; Rank: 4
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Don't be alarmed by the picture of a Penn State quarterback—that's actually Devlin prior to his transfer to Delaware. Everyone wants to compare this guy to his predecessor Joe Flacco, but the truth is they are two different beasts.
I know this seems like a bit of a cop-out, but he is eerily similar to the college version of...Tom Brady. Here's why:
Strong Points
Devlin excels with tremendous accuracy at the short-to-intermediate throws. He excels at going through his progressions and selecting the right man to throw the ball to—whoever is open. He stands in against pressure and throws accurately. He has a very quick release, is intelligent and avoids big mistakes while making clutch throws and big plays.
Areas of Improvement Needed
My primary concern with Devlin is the speed of the game. He made quick decisions and read progressions in D-1AA, but the NFL is a different ball game. Also, he rarely, if ever, threw the ball into coverage, which is great, but makes me question if he trusts his arm and would be willing to throw into tight spaces in the NFL (where 95 percent of throws are made).
Summary
Not to put the kibosh on Devlin, but he reminds me a lot of a young Tom Brady—smart, makes good decisions, accurate but needs to improve his overall body and strength. Doing so will allow him to make crisper throws and begin to fit more balls into tight spaces.
Like Brady, he is very careful with the football, and excels in the short passing game with patience and checking down when necessary. Similarly, he is great moving within the pocket and keeping his eyes downfield and then making tough throws against that pressure. Devlin has a bright NFL future if he improves his strength and overall confidence in his arm.
For a more detailed scouting report click here.
Talented, But Oh So Raw!
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Each member of this group is uniquely talented, and if talent were all it took to be a successful NFL QB, they would definitely be at the top of my rankings. In fact, these would likely be my top four QBs (although Kaepernick talent-wise is definitely equal to these guys).
I should also note that the first two could have also gone under the lookalike category, but they seemed like a better fit for this category.
Blaine Gabbert, Missouri; Grade: Early 3rd Round; Rank: 5
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Strong Points
Blaine Gabbert has a big arm and can make all the throws without much effort. He is big and durable and can keep plays alive, giving his receivers a chance to get open down the field. He throws well on the run and can make a play here or there when keeping the ball and running. He throws an accurate seam pass with nice trajectory—a crucial pass for NFL success.
Areas of Improvement Needed
Gabbert needs to learn to read a defense while dropping back from under center. This could take him a year or more. Only when he can do this can he enter an NFL game. He needs to improve on converting 3rd downs and TD opportunities. For his talent he doesn’t make enough big plays and his short pass accuracy is not what you would expect from an elite prospect.
Summary
Gabbert is a supremely-talented player, but he is very raw. Most guys like him would be better off going back for another year of school, but Missouri’s offense wasn’t going to help him prepare anymore for the NFL. To me he is a developmental type guy who should be a second- or third-round pick because he just has too many flaws in his game.
I see him as a clone of Ben Roethlisberger, but I doubt he’s going to win at the same type of level that Roethlisberger has. He doesn’t seem to have the same type of moxie or leadership abilities as Ben.
For a more detailed scouting report click here.
Nathan Enderle, Idaho; Grade: Middle 3rd Round; Rank: 7
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Strong Points
Enderle has a cannon for an arm.
He can squeeze the ball into coverage, and throws a nice deep ball. He has experience taking snaps from under center, taking a three, five, or seven-step drop, reading the coverage and making accurate NFL-type throws. He is fairly accurate to all three levels of the field—short, intermediate, and deep and has good footwork and sound throwing mechanics. He also has experience changing calls at the line of scrimmage.
Areas of Improvement Needed
Enderle's greatest detractor to his stock is his decision-making, which was poor for much of his senior season and reared its ugly head again at the East-West Shrine Bowl.
While a decent athlete, he isn't going to fend off many would-be tacklers, nor gain many yards with his feet. His play was great for most of 2009 (when he was in the lineup) but went downhill a bit in 2010. Finally, note the comment "when he was in the lineup" because he missed several games of his junior season and his team didn't necessarily miss him.
Summary
Enderle is an exciting talent who has an incredibly gifted arm. His footwork and throwing technique are what you are looking for in an NFL QB and he reminds me a lot of Dolphins' QB Chad Henne. In this case, that's not necessarily a comparison Enderle wants to continue. His leadership, moxie, and winning attitude can rightly be called into question, along with his decision-making.
Therefore, you have a frustrating player who should be a lot better than he is. Some quarterbacks' coach is going to think he can bring those qualities out in Enderle. If he is able to successfully do so, you have a guy who could be a steal in this draft.
Ryan Mallett, Arkansas; Grade: Middle 3rd Round; Rank: 8
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Strong Points
Ryan Mallett has a big arm which allows him to make throws that few QBs in this class or even in the NFL can make. It allows him to throw off his back foot versus pressure and still burn a defense. He also has a fairly quick release which allows him to get the ball off against pressure.
His accuracy on deep throws and on designed rollouts, and other forms of moving the pocket, is quite good. He executes game plans well.
Areas of Improvement Needed
Mallett is not an instinctive player and struggles once the Opener plays of the plan are done.
His short accuracy is not good because his technique often leaves him. He isn’t going to shake many sacks as he’s pretty much a standing duck back there. His ability to read a defense is a concern because his instincts and decision-making seem to leave him as the game situation tightens.
Finally, he seems to be an ineffective communicator and leader and his leaving Michigan brought questions about his personality.
Summary
Mallett is frustrating because he probably has the most talented arm in this class, but there are so many cautions to take with him. Yes, he can make any and every throw and is effective throwing on the run, but he can go erratic at any time. Ryan doesn’t seem to be the passionate leader you desire a quarterback to be.
Mallett will likely be drafted higher than he should because of his talent, but there seems to be a lot of potential for another Ryan’s NFL fate—that of Ryan Leaf—to see it all evaporate just as quickly.
For a more detailed scouting report click here.
Jake Locker, Washington; Grade: Early 4th Round; Rank: 9
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Strong Points
Locker is a tremendous athlete who will cause defensive coordinators headaches figuring out how to stop him from scrambling and making plays with his feet.
He makes big plays and has the arm strength to make any and every NFL throw. He’s a battler with a great attitude and desire. He's the type of guy you want to go to war with.
Areas of Improvement Needed
Accuracy fades depending on the situation, as does his decision-making. The bigger the situation the more he trusts in his legs because of bad decisions in the past. Under pressure, he throws off his back foot leading to poor accuracy as does his happy feet. He struggles to locate the deep ball and it is concerning that despite good coaching, he never seemed to make the progress expected of him.
Summary
Locker is a frustrating kid. His competitiveness and skill set are off the charts and that should make him a legitimate first-round QB. But his ability to execute make him a 3rd-4th round type guy. He has been exposed to good coaching, which could mean his best is yet to come or show that he doesn’t take coaching well. Interviews are going to be key for Locker. Finally, he plays baseball and could leave football in a couple years for that sport if he doesn’t view himself as having a legitimate shot to make it long-term in the NFL.
For a more detailed scouting report click here.
The Game Managers
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Note: Trent Dilfer was the ultimate game-management QB. Oh yeah, he took his team to the Super Bowl and won.
These five guys are really system quarterbacks, which, by definition is an NFL backup. These are the guys that can look great if they are in a system that fits them, but have limitations that will not allow them to become stars.
Take heed though, these are also the guys who coaches can generally trust not to turn the ball over, manage the game and win in the regular season. Additionally, it is these type of guys who tend to be the best coaches, scouts and/or analysts.
Andy Dalton, Texas Christian University; Grade: Late 3rd; Rank: 6
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Note: I have Dalton ranked ahead of the three previous players, but have placed him here because qualitatively I feel he fits better in this group.
Strong Points
Dalton is an intelligent leader who has a lot of the intangibles and raw skill.
He has a knack for making the big play and picking up first downs with his feet, but is also accurate throwing the ball on the run and has the arm strength to make great throws even off his back foot.
He can throw the deep out/comeback with anyone and is good getting outside the pocket. He is also a tough kid, which he was able to display by starting for four years in a Spread Option offense.
Areas of Improvement Needed
Improved technique would make him more accurate. He tends to stand upright and still in the pocket, and even when he pump fakes he fails to reset his feet.
Dalton needs to show he can drop back from under center and step up in the pocket and throw against pressure. He seems to make one bad decision per game.
Summary
Dalton is an interesting prospect. Despite being a four-year starter he remains a bit raw. Much of that is due to playing in what was basically a spread system at TCU, and the fact he is talented enough to get away with some of his poor technique.
When he concentrates and shows good technique he can make any throw. Add that to his moxie and ability to read defenses and understand offensive schemes and you have a guy who could potentially be a good NFL QB.
For a more detailed scouting report click here.
Christian Ponder, Florida State; Grade: Late 4th Round; Rank: 10
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Strong Points
Christian Ponder has flashes that make you go WOW! He is a very good athlete who can pick up first downs with his feet when necessary. When he concentrates and loads up on the back foot he can really fling the intermediate route accurately.
His throwing technique is well refined, and he is aided by having played in an offense that taught pro-style techniques while using some spread concepts to move the football.
Areas of Improvement Needed
Ponder struggles with accuracy against pressure and to get enough on the deep ball. He is remarkably inconsistent and his struggles to stay on the field are a definite concern going forward. And his overall accuracy is spotty.
Summary
Ponder is a guy you want to like because you can see some talent and you know he’s trying hard.
He even was a productive QB at Florida State and he appears to be a smart kid. Unfortunately, there are just too many flaws with Ponder that you don’t see with other top QBs. His arm strength isn’t good beyond 15 yards and he struggles immensely under pressure.
That being said he has moments that blow you away, primarily because they are so infrequent. Overall, it is not a lack of talent, nor effort, that will keep Christian from being a good NFL QB, but there are some areas that must improve if he has any chance.
For a detailed scouting report click here.
T.J. Yates, North Carolina; Grade: Middle 5th; Rank: 12
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Strong Points
Yates has good throwing technique which allows him to be fairly accurate. His good size will allow him to take punishment and help him look over the linemen in front of him.
Yates almost never makes a mistake.
He has a very quick release which allows him to tear defenses apart in the short passing game. and he excels in the play-action game and throws a nice deep ball, especially over the middle.
Areas of Improvement Needed
Arm strength will always be a concern and he lacks the strength to make the intermediate throws. He is not a guy that is going to avoid too many sacks or make many yards with his feet and is limited in some of the things he can do, making him a system QB.
Summary
Yates is a guy I loved watching.
He’s one of those guys who seems to grow on you the more you watch him. He is kind of a jack of all trades, master of none. Nothing he does is necessarily going to blow you away, but at the end of the day he is a very effective quarterback who gets his team in the right plays, leads them well, makes plays when necessary and avoids mistakes.
He is probably the prototypical game-management QB, at least among this class of quarterbacks. It’s hard for me to envision Yates becoming a star, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up winning some games, and who knows, maybe even a few playoff games.
For a more detailed scouting report click here.
Scott Tolzien, Wisconsin; Grade: 6th Round: Rank: 13
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Strong Points
Scott Tolzien is an intelligent player who leads well. He throws effectively on the run and is accurate on the shorter throws. He can get the offense out of a bad play and into a good one regularly. He is a wonderful game plan quarterback.
Areas Of Improvement Needed
Tolzien lacks ideal NFL arm strength.
While he’ll occasionally rifle a sideline throw in, they are often late, not because of a slow decision but because of a lofting trajectory. He does not show the arm strength necessary to push the ball down the field with regularity. He struggles with pressure and won’t make many rushers miss.
Summary
Simply said, Tolzien looks like the ideal NFL backup. He can come in and manage a game and can make a few big plays because of the game plan, but he isn’t going to make too many things happen on his own. He is limited from a talent perspective. He will make good decisions, get the offense into the right play and execute that play.
For a more detailed scouting report click here.
Adam Weber, Minnesota; Grade: 7th Round; Rank: 14
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I must confess, Weber is not one of the guys I spent approximately 100 hours grading film of. However, I watched Minnesota closely in several games this season and last (when he had current Broncos WR Eric Decker).
It is notable that when Weber had a talented wide receiver to throw to and was coached by an NFL-quality offensive coordinator/QBs coach in Jedd Fisch, Weber looked like a decent NFL prospect.
Much of his struggles as a senior were directly related to his loss of these two men to the NFL.
Of course a great QB would step up regardless and make his coach and wide receivers look good. But the fact Weber did play well with quality people around him means that there is something there, that with the right coaching and some talent could make Weber an NFL-caliber quarterback.
As a senior he looked more like a game manager. As a junior he looked like he could possibly become more than that. The great question for a team contemplating selecting him in the seventh round is which guy are you getting?
Because it's the NFL—where you know you’re going to get good coaching and talent—I’d like to believe you're getting the junior season version of Weber. I guess time will tell.
The JaMarcus Russell Factor, Aka The Bust Factor
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Seemingly every year there is one quarterback who comes out of school early, and to a scout who doesn't allow talent to awe him and control him the way a pretty girl does a single guy, it becomes obvious that kid should have stayed in school (but even if he did he would never turn out be a good pro).
It is almost never because the kid is not talented. As is the case this year, it is because the kid is very raw and needs a lot of work. But as is normally the case, because of circumstances, this kid really had no choice but to come out early. And going back to that particular school would not have really helped his stock anyway.
Cameron Newton, Auburn; Grade: Incomplete (J/K) Early 5th; Rank: 11
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Pardon me for not drinking the Kool-Aid about his great media workout Thursday. I respect Trent Dilfer, but ultimately I have to trust the film, not someone else's opinion about a staged workout. And when I put on the film, here's what I saw.
Strong Points
Newton is a special athlete who could probably play receiver if a team ever decided to put him there. He has the size you are looking for at the position, has a cannon of an arm and a knack for making big-time plays. He seems to have a charisma about him and an ability to relate to his teammates.
Areas of Improvement Needed
Despite that ability to relate to his teammates, he doesn’t seem to have much desire to lead them; he just wants to be one of the guys. His work ethic is questioned because of his lack of reading coverages and his poor footwork. His accuracy is inconsistent, and despite putting up tremendous numbers, he was actually shut down by most of the good defenses he faced.
He has no experience in an NFL-type offense, and didn't even make many NFL-type throws at Auburn. Newton is a one-read-and-throw or tuck-and-run guy. Finally, character questions, beyond simply his ability to lead, are well-documented and a huge area of concern, especially for a quarterback.
Summary
Newton is obviously going to be a much-talked about prospect after the Heisman season he had, and rightfully so, since the skill set is there for him to be a tremendous NFL QB. But he is extremely raw and needs a ton of work to be any kind of NFL quarterback, much less a starter.
Because of well- known, and some lesser known incidents, NFL teams should seriously question his character. On talent and production alone he seems to be a third-round player, but the character concerns drop him, in my book, to a fifth-round grade.
For a more detailed scouting report click here.
Either Changing Positions or Playing in Another League
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I'll admit again, I have not poured myself into any of these prospects. I claim ignorance on most of them. But I do know that most scouting sources have placed these guys below the draftable line, which allows me to rest doing the same.
A few of them (Tyrod Taylor, Diondre Borel, perhaps Jerrod Johnson and Austen Arnaud) could go the Drew Bennett route and realistically attempt to play a different position because of their athleticism.
Otherwise, the next best option for most of these guys is to try to make it in Canada, the Arena League or the UFL. Please note, these are not bad players or unskilled, they just don't measure out as NFL-caliber quarterbacks.
The list:
15. Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech—Of all the members of this group, Taylor has a chance to be drafted as a QB and similar to someone like D.J. Shockley, may even get a few years to prove himself. I feel he would have a better chance at success by changing positions.
16. Taylor Potts, Texas Tech—Another in a long line of Texas Tech gunslingers, none of who have made it to this point, and unfortunately it looks like the Red Raiders are going to have to keep fishing to get their first NFL QB (although Graham Harrell is the third string QB in Green Bay) since they went to the Run 'N Gun offense.
17. Diondre Borel, Utah State—Very productive senior season, but not a QB. After Taylor probably the best athlete among this group.
18. Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M—Stock fell more than any other QB, or perhaps player, this year. Went into the season as a possible first-rounder, now he'll be lucky to make a camp.
19. Ryan Colburn, Fresno State—Shows some NFL abilities, but lack of arm strength will prevent him from making a team.
20. Carson Coffman, Kansas State—No Comment.
21. Ben Chappell, Indiana—No Comment.
22. Justin Burke, Louisville—No Comment.
23. Kevin Riley, California—No Comment.
24. Brian Anderson, Marshall—No Comment.
25. Kevin Moore, Tulane—No Comment.
26. Austen Arnaud, Iowa State—No Comment.
27. Zac Lee, Nebraska—No Comment.
28. Mitch Mustain, USC—Likely would have been at the top of this group, perhaps higher, if not for his recent drug arrest, thereby eliminating him from serious draft consideration.
Summary
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This year's QB class is not heavy with guys that you expect to do big things. The top talents are all very much boom or bust type guys. The safe guys are mostly career backups, or maybe if everything works out perfectly for them they'll become a good NFL starter-type guys.
Then again, how many people thought Tom Brady with the 199th pick overall would become a future Hall of Famer. As with the entire draft process, that is what makes all of this so fun.
There are no definite answers. Even the safe guys often are not safe. And often it's the guys that even I'm not willing to take chance on who come out of nowhere to become stars (also see Romo, Tony and Warner, Kurt).
I will stand behind my bust pick on Cam Newton. He is one guy I guarantee will not find NFL success.
Likewise, I will absolutely take it to my grave that Colin Kaepernick will become a good NFL QB.
Finally, I bet one guy among the OMG talent crop doesn't make it beyond their first NFL contract and one of either The Look Alikes or The Game Managers becomes a good NFL starter.
After that all bets are off.
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