2011 NFL Draft: 10 Reasons Blaine Gabbert Shouldn't Be the First QB Taken
Missouri's Blaine Gabbert shot up draft boards once Stanford's Andrew Luck decided to return to school for his junior season. Now, Gabbert is widely considered the No. 1 available quarterback prospect.
He's tall, strong, mobile and has a big arm. Gabbert seems like a can't-miss prospect.
But is it just that simple?
There are other quarterbacks that should be taken before Gabbert in the draft despite what the draft rankings state and the expert opinions.
Here are 10 reasons why Gabbert shouldn't be the first quarterback taken in the 2011 NFL Draft.
10. Gabbert Moves Well Out Of The Pocket But Not in It
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Scouts love Gabbert's mobility. He put it on display plenty at Missouri in the spread option. He runs well in the open field.
But Gabbert didn't display a strong ability to play within a traditional passer's pocket. The spread creates unorthodox passing pockets with option pass plays and misdirection.
Positive movement within the pocket can be coached to an extent, but more than anything else, it's a natural skill.
9. Gabbert Isn't a True Deep Ball Passer
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Throwing the deep ball well is a rare talent. Several pro quarterbacks don't do it well. But the ones that do are elite players.
Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Vick, and even Donovan McNabb in his prime, all throw a tremendous deep ball. That skill changes what an offense can do.
Being able to drop a ball into a receiver's stride 60 yards down field is a huge plus that Gabbert doesn't possess.
8. Gabbert Is the Flavor of the Month
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Blaine Gabbert's name wasn't really a part of the quarterback draft discussion a couple of months ago. It was Andrew Luck, Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett. Then Gabbert suddenly burst into every scout's consciousness.
Luck goes back to college, and ESPN's Todd McShay declares Gabbert the best quarterback prospect in the draft and that he's destined to be the first quarterback drafted.
What happened to the previous year when Gabbert wasn't a large part of the discussion? Scouts should remember why they love Locker and Mallett and why they didn't love Gabbert.
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7. Gabbert Benefited From a System in College
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Missouri runs the spread option which is extremely popular in college football, but is not used at all in the NFL.
Missouri's offense inflated the production of quarterback's Brad Smith and Chase Daniel before Gabbert took over. The throws are often short or in greater space than the NFL provides.
The transition from spread in college to pro-style in the NFL is one that has boggled many quarterbacks.
6. Gabbert Played Poorly Against Nebraska Twice
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The defense that most resembles an NFL defense in the Big 12 the past two seasons has been Nebraska's.
With players such as Ndamukong Suh, Prince Amukamara and Jared Crick, the Huskers have tormented pretty much everyone that has played them over the past two seasons, Gabbert included.
With opportunities to play against an elite defense, Gabbert disappointed. In two games against Nebraska, Gabbert complete only 41 percent of his passes, throwing for 333 yards and three interceptions with only one touchdown.
Ouch.
5. Jake Locker Has More Upside
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The Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and the Minnesota Vikings are the first three teams that aren't convincingly set at quarterback. However, all three teams have players that they still believe in (that is, as long as Carson Palmer stays with the Bengals).
That gives them the flexibility to draft a quarterback heavy on upside. Although Gabbert looks like possibly the most pro-ready quarterback, Washington's Jake Locker has the most upside. He's not far behind Gabbert as it is, and many believe he can develop rare ability with the right tutelage.
Teams that can afford to keep their rookie on the bench for a season should draft Locker.
4. Gabbert's Numbers Were Down in 2010
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Gabbert threw 30 more passes in 2010 than he did in 2009, yet he threw for more than 400 yards less and eight less touchdowns in 2010.
He threw for a higher completion percentage but, in all, was less effective. He ran the ball more in 2010. That's not always a positive.
Overall, Gabbert took a step back in 2010 after having an outstanding year in 2009.
3. Gabbert Has No Experience Under Center
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In college, Gabbert stood about four yards behind his center, surveyed the defense, caught the snap and hopped around in the pocket until making his throw.
In the NFL, Gabbert will spend a lot of his time under center. He'll have to take a snap, survey the defense while he drops back into the pocket and then make his throw.
There will be shotgun snaps, but many will be from under center. It's something that Gabbert will have to learn after not experiencing it in college.
2. Gabbert Hasn't Faced Good Pass Defense
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The Big 12 hasn't exactly been a defensive-minded conference the past two seasons. Blaine Gabbert has benefited from seeing Ole! defenses one after the other.
In two seasons, Gabbert faced 10 passing defense ranked 75th in the nation or worse. Meanwhile, he only faced three ranked in the top 25. Two of those were Nebraska.
Many of Gabbert's worst games came against the best defenses. It's not exactly a great sign.
1. Ryan Mallett Is a Better Prospect
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Scouts love Gabbert's mobility and his size. Arkansas' Ryan Mallett has both of those qualities. But Mallett also has a rocket arm that makes every throw the pro game presents with ease.
The knock on Mallett is that he disappeared in some of the biggest moments. Week in and week out in the SEC is full of big moments. He showed up for a lot of them and was able to overcome them all.
Mallett is the better prospect and may be ready to play right away.
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