Minnesota Twins: 15 Questions Heading into Spring Training
Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers are set to report to Fort Myers in less than two weeks!
The start of spring training means that the warm spring weather cannot be far behind.
After the type of winter that has pounded most of the country this year, I know I can be counted among many who cannot wait for the snow to melt away!
With every spring training there comes a renewed hope. Hope that this will be the year, the year the Minnesota Twins turn the corner from being a consistent AL Central division winner and make it to the next round of the play offs.
It's been 20 years since the Twins last won the World Series, and with the new smell still hovering over Target Field, the question is has the team done enough to make their fourth World Series appearance and possibly win a third World Series Championship?
As the team gets ready to open spring training here are some questions that will need to be answered.
Is Alexi Casilla Ready To Be an Everyday Player?
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As the Minnesota Twins head into the Grapefruit League it appears that the shortstop position is Alexi Casilla's to lose.
After allowing second baseman Orlando Hudson to leave via free agency and the trade of J.J. Hardy to Baltimore, the Twins are going to give Casilla another shot at the starting lineup.
After hitting .281 with seven home runs and 50 RBI in 98 games in 2008 the Twins were set with Casilla at second base when they opened the 2009 season.
Unfortunately for Casilla he started out slow, batting only .167 to open the season at the number two hitter and was sent down to Triple-A Rochester. He would finish the year appearing in 80 games with a .202 average.
He rebounded in 2010 after being called up when Hudson went on the DL and finished with a .276 average in 69 games.
For the Twins to be successful in 2011 Casilla needs to bring that .270 average with him when the team heads North.
If Casilla plays in 130 games in 2011 it will be a good year for the Minnesota Twins.
Prediction
Casilla will play in 120 to 140 games with a .260 average in the ninth spot in the order.
Casilla will steal 15 to 20 bases as manager Ron Gardenhire will look to use his speed more often in 2011.
Is Tsuyoshi Nishioka Ready For Major League Pitchers?
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The best scenario would be for Tsuyoshi Nishioka to storm the league like Ichiro Suzuki—that's not going to happen.
Ichiro came to the Seattle Mariners after nine seasons in the Japanese Pacific League with a .353 career batting average. By his third professional season in Japan he was an everyday player and never batter lower than .342 for the Orix Blue Wave.
In his American League rookie year, Ichiro would lead the AL with 242 hits for a .350 batting average and with 56 stolen bases.
Nishioka will make his North American debut one year younger than Ichiro. However in his eight professional seasons he brings a career .293 average, having only hit .300 or better in four seasons.
A quick scan of the performance of other second basemen from Japan, including Kazuo Matsui, Tadahito Iguchi, and Akinori Iwamura indicates that Nishioka will be able to handle major league pitching. These three played at least four seasons, and all within a couple of points of a .267 batting average.
Prediction
Nishioka has been playing professional ball since he was 18, he will quickly adjust to the American League.
However his average will be closer to his career average of .293 than that of the .346 he hit last season when he led the Pacific League.
Will Danny Valencia Continue to Shine?
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There's one thing Danny Valencia is not lacking as he comes to camp as the Twins third baseman—confidence.
There's good reason for that, Valencia has flourished at every level he has played.
Out of high school he wanted to play for the University of Miami. When they did not recruit him he signed to play with the University of Carolina at Greensboro where he was the Southern Conference Freshman of the Year after batting .338 and leading the team with eight home runs.
He transferred to Miami his sophomore year and played two seasons for the Hurricanes, going to the College World Series in 2004.
He would forgo his senior year at Miami after being drafted by the Twins in the 19th round of the 2006 draft.
He would spend four seasons in the Twins farm system moving up a level in the middle of every season.
The lowest batting average he had was .285 when he split time between Double-A New Britain and and Triple-A Rochester.
In 2010 Valencia was called up in June after hitting .292 in 49 games at Rochester.
In 85 games for the Twins his average would increase to .311, the third best on the Twins in 2010.
Prediction
There will be no sophomore slump for Valencia, look for him to hit .297 with 15 home runs and 80 RBI.
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Will Justin Morneau Get Labelled As Injury Prone?
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Oh, how 2010 would have been different if Justin Morneau could have remained in the lineup!
Plotting the number of games he has played each year it is starting to look like a Gaussian distribution with Morneau's number of games on the decline over the last three seasons.
Morneau made his major league debut with the Twins in 2003 when he played in 40 games.
He would increase that number each year, playing in 157 games in 2006 and 2007, and all 163 games in 2008. Since then his numbers have dropped to 130 games in 2009 and 81 in last season due to season-ending injuries.
Morneau, who turns 30 in May, will need to come back from the concussion he suffered last July and pick up right where he left off when he was leading the team with a .345 average with 18 home runs and 56 RBI.
Prediction
Even though Ron Gardenhire and the Twins will handle Morneau with kid gloves, easing him back into full-time duty, he will play between 130 to 140 games this season. He will return to form with a .312 batting average with close to 30 home runs and 100 RBI.
Will Delmon Young Become The Twins Third MVP?
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The weakest part of Delmon Young's game is his defense—but if he can produce like he did in 2010 no one will notice.
Last season Young led the team with 112 RBI, and flirted with .300 most of the season. His .298 average was the fourth best for the Twins—his highest since he batted .317 in 30 games for Tampa Bay in 2006.
At 25 years-old this will be Young's sixth season in the majors. In his second season he played in all 162 games for the Rays and has averaged 143 games over the last four seasons.
In the second half of the year he was getting some mention as an MVP candidate and actually received some votes finishing 10th.
Prediction
Young will back up his 2010 season with another productive year in 2011.
He will continue to demonstrate his durability and will lead the Twins in games played.
Look for Young to hit at least .300 with 26 home runs and over 100 RBI as he hits the prime of his baseball career.
Will The Real Denard Span Please Step Up?
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The Twins need Denard Span to have the kind of numbers he produced in 2009, rather than those in 2010.
His batting average and home run total were both the lowest in his three year career while his 705 plate appearances were a career high.
His weighted on base average (WOBA) of .312 was 12th among American League center fielders with at least 400 plate appearances in 2010. Down from 2009 when he was second in the league with a .359 WOBA.
According to MLB.com's Kelly Thesier, Span played in 62 straight games before taking a day off last year, and manager Ron Gardenhire hopes to change that—"It's my job to make sure I rest him a little bit more, and give him the breaks he needs to get the best out of him." Gardenhire said.
Perhaps when the Twins traded away his main competition, Carlos Gomez, to the Milwaukee Brewers Span lost his concentration. There's something about competition that can either bring out the best in a player, or have them suffer under the pressure.
Unfortunately the Twins 40-man roster does not appear to contain any competition for Span.
Jason Repko, will probably make the team as the utility outfielder, has a career .227 average in five major league seasons.
Ben Revere and Joe Benson, both only 22 years-old, who are making their way through the Twins minor league system are currently at the Double-A level. Although Revere was a September call up last season, neither are ready to challenge at the major league level.
Prediction
Even with the extra rest promised by Gardenhire, Span will continue to struggle with his average hovering between .250 to .260.
Look for Alexi Casilla and Tsuyoshi Nishioka to get a turn at the lead off position in 2011.
Where Will Michael Cuddyer End Up Playing?
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This question has two meanings.
Will Michael Cuddyer finish the season at first base for the third straight year and, if the Twins fail to offer him a contract extension, are his days with Minnesota numbered?
There's no doubt in my mind that come July if the Twins are out of the playoff picture, and Cuddyer is without an extension, he will be a trade deadline casualty.
Cuddyer has played his entire 10-year career with the Twins.
His .270 career batting average and 83 RBI a season are not spectacular, but consistent.
Cuddyer has been a consistent contributor offensively and defensively. The Twins would not have won the AL Central division the last two seasons without him while filling for Justin Morneau at first base.
Prediction
Cuddyer will be as consistent as ever batting fifth to seventh in the Twins lineup.
If at the end of spring training Cuddyer is without a contract extension this will be his last season in a Twins' uniform.
Currently with a $10 million contact, he could easily be dealt to a contender at the trading deadline.
How Long Will Jason Kubel Be Around?
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Jason Kubel will need to have a better season in 2011 than he had in 2010 if he wants to be here in 2012.
Like Denard Span, Kubel followed his best year, stastically speaking, in 2009 when he had a .383 weighted on base average, with his worst in 2010 when his WOBA dropped to .326, the lowest since 2006 when he only played in 73 games.
The good news for Kubel is that the Twins exercised the $5.25 million option for 2011. The bad news, like Michael Cuddyer he can become a free agent in 2012.
In 2009 Kubel hit 28 home runs and his 103 RBI lead the team.
In 2010 he was tied for second on the club with 21 home runs and drove in 92 RBI even though his average dropped to .249.
Prediction
Kubel's batting average and WOBA will rebound in 2011. Look for him to hit 25 home runs with 95 RBI as the main designated hitter for the Twins.
Look for the Twins to find a way to re-sign Kubel after the season.
When Will Jim Thome Hit Number 600?
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Jim Thome only needs 11 home runs to reach 600 for his career.
In 2010 he hit a home run for every 13.6 plate appearances—the third best rate in his 20-year career.
Look for Thome's role to be more like it was in the beginning of last season when Micheal Cuddyer was the everyday right fielder and Jason Kubel was the designated hitter.
Prediction
Thome will hit 18 home runs in 2011.
I see Thome getting his 600th home run late June or early July during the Twins' nine-game home stand starting June 27th with three games each against the Dodgers, Brewers and Rays.
Look for there to be fireworks at Target Field.
Starting Pitching: Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and ?
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The top two positions at the top of the Twins rotation are not in question.
With a league-leading seven complete games last season, Carl Pavano was the work horse of the Twins starting rotation with a 17-11 record.
Francisco Liriano was second on the staff with 14 wins and had the best ERA among the starters at 3.62 (excluding Duensing who only started 13 games.)
The Twins had six different starters, including Brian Duensing, with at least 10 victories.
Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker have taken turns looking like they were ready to turn the corner and make a significant contribution to the team, only to regress back to mediocrity.
Blackburn would start the season looking like he was ready to step up with a 6-1 record after nine starts with a 4.28 ERA. Unfortunately after May he would go 4-10 in 17 starts with a 5.96 ERA. He finished the season with a 10-12 record and a 5.42 ERA.
Baker would go in almost the opposite direction. After given the opening day start, Baker would post a 6-7 record with a 4.88 ERA through June.
From July on he would go 6-2 with a 3.87 ERA in 13 starts.
Still, his second half improvement was not enough to earn him a stat in the post season.
In 2009 Slowey went into the All-Star break among the league leaders in wins with a 10-3 record. Unfortunately he would not pitch again that season due to a strained right wrist that required surgery to remove a bone fragment.
In 2010 Slowey would continue to produce a winning record going 13-6 in 28 starts with a 4.45 ERA.
Prediction
Slowey will step up and secure the third spot in the Twins rotation. Look for him to go 15-7 with an ERA around 4.10.
Speaking Of Liriano, Is He Ready To Be The Ace?
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Francisco Liriano earned the AL Pitcher of the Month in April last season with a 3-0 record and a 0.93 ERA.
He looked like the dominant pitcher the Twins called up in 2006 when he had a 12-3 record and a 2.16 ERA. Issues with his forearm would place him on the DL in August of that year. He would eventually have Tommy John surgery in November forcing him to miss all of the 2007 season.
He would follow April with two losing months going 3-6 with a 4.52 ERA over May and June before turning things around and going 8-4 with a 3.77 from July.
He finished the season at 14-10 with a 3.62 ERA in 31 starts.
Prediction
Liriano will be a little more consistent month-to-month in 2011 picking up a few more victories.
Look for a record of 17-10 with an ERA close to 3.50.
Will Joe Nathan Need a Year To Fully Recover From Tommy John Surgery?
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In 2009 Joe Nathan saved a career high 47 games for the Twins.
He would miss the entire 2010 season after having Tommy John surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament last March.
It usually takes a pitcher a good year to return to form after having Tommy John surgery.
Based on his numbers, it took Francisco Liriano almost two full seasons before he fully felt comfortable throwing his slider again.
Nathan has been throwing some bullpen sessions and is eager to show the Twins he is ready to return to the closer role for Minnesota. That eagerness could be from the fact the Twins acquired All-Star closer Matt Capps last season from Washington who saved 16 games for Minnesota.
The good news is the precedence for the return of a closer from Tommy John surgery was set by Billy Wagner.
Wagner had Tommy John surgery in September of 2008. He would make his return to the majors in September of 2009 pitching 15.2 innings in 17 appearances.
Last season Wagner saved 37 games for the Atlanta Braves.
Like Wagner, Nathan relies mostly on his fastball, throwing it 62 percent of the time while mixing in a slider 25 percent of the time and throwing about 10 percent curve balls.
At four years younger than Wagner, Nathan should be able to make a similar comeback.
Prediction
Manager Ron Gardenhire will ease Nathan back into the closer role alternating him with Capps to open the season.
Look for Nathan to save 25 games for the Twins and regain the primary closer role late in the season.
Where Will The Middle Relief Come From?
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Last season Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain led the pitching staff with 75 and 71 appearances respectively and pitched a combined 139 innings.
These two would alternate over the season as the set-up man taking the mound in the eighth inning.
With Guerrier signing with the White Sox and Crain with the Dodgers there are a couple of huge holes that will need to be plugged at the end of the Twins bullpen.
The Twins acquired right-hander Jim Hoey from Baltimore in a trade for J.J. Hardy, and claimed left-hander Dusty Hughes off waivers from Kansas City.
They also signed Eric Hacker as a free agent and added him to the 40-man roster.
The problem is these three combined have only 103 major league appearances and 107.2 innings pitched.
Prediction
Look for Matt Capps to eventually be the set-up man and for Pat Neshek to get significant innings this year.
Where Does Brian Duensing Fit on The Pitching Staff?
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The last two seasons Brian Duensing has started in the bullpen only to get the nod as a starter in the American League Divisional Series.
Unfortunately his post-season numbers aren't that good. He is 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA in eight innings pitched.
In late July of 2010 Duesing would start 13 games, going 7-2 with a 3.36 ERA.
Overall he would pitch to a 10-3 record and a 2.62 ERA.
Throughout his five seasons in the Twins minor league system he started 101 of a 106 games.
Prediction
Based on his success out of the bullpen in 2010, look for Duensing to be a part of the Twins bullpen in 2011. He will make close to 70 appearances for Minnesota as one of the replacements for Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier.
Can The Twins Repeat As AL Central Champs, and Can They Beat The Yankees?
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The Minnesota Twins have only won six division titles since their last World Series Championship in 1991, and they have all come since 2002 with Ron Gardenhire as manager.
Unfortunately, Gardenhire is 6-21 in the post season with his last win coming in the 2004 ALDS against New York.
Gardenhire has faced the Yankees four times in six post-season series, and has a 2-12 record.
With Andy Pettitte's decision to retire, that could mean the Yankees will be hard pressed to even make a return to the playoffs coming out of the best division in baseball.
The keys for Minnesota in 2011 will be the health of Justin Morneau and Joe Nathan as well as the play of Tsuyoshi Nishioka and the effectiveness of the bullpen.
Prediction
The Twins are still the team to beat in the AL Central. Look for another 90-win season for Gardenhire as they barely hold off the White Sox in 2011.
As for the playoffs, it won't be the Yankees, but look for yet another divisional round loss by the Twins at the hands of the Red Sox or Rays.
Even so it will be another great season of Twins baseball at Target Field in 2011!
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