2011 Fantasy Baseball: 17 Elite Players Who Surpassed MLB-Avg Offensively
Yesterday, the Baseball Professor released an analysis on category scarcity over at FanGraphs.com. He broke down each of the five primary offensive categories in fantasy baseball (average, homers, runs batted in, stolen bases and runs scored) by position and on the basis of the players who achieved MLB-average (or better) in each category.
The analysis was limited to those players who had at least 400 AB in 2010, and identified the MLB-average for the categories as follows:
Average: .271
Home Runs: 16
RBI: 68
SB: 10
Runs: 70
The article got me wondering: How many players across Major League Baseball reached at least the average in ALL FIVE statistical categories last year. There were 17 such players, to be precise. 5 in the American League and 12 in the National League.
Ryan Braun, OF (MIL)
1 of 17
Braun hit .304 last year, with 25 HR, 103 RBI, 14 SB and 101 runs scored.
He has been in the major leagues for four seasons... and in each and every year he has surpassed last year's MLB-average in all five categories.
In 2007, he was the NL Rookie of the Year, and in each of the subsequent seasons he has been an All-Star and won a Silver Slugger Award.
There may be players who had better seasons in 2010 (Carlos Gonzalez, Josh Hamilton), but no one has been more consistent than Braun. In terms of fantasy baseball, he is as safe and reliable an option as you will find on auction/draft day.
That said, he has seen his home run output decrease in each of the last three years. If you are flipping a coin with respect to your first-round pick, it would be advisable to watch him closely during spring training.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF (CLE)
2 of 17
Choo came up in the Mariners organization, but was traded to Cleveland in 2006 in the deal that sent Ben Broussard to Seattle.
He has been a major league regular for two years and has put up solid numbers in both campaigns. Last season, he hit .300, with 22 HR, 90 RBI, and 81 runs scored. There's not a lot to love in Cleveland right now in terms of fantasy performers, but Choo is one of the few Indians who is an honest-to-goodness asset in both mixed-league and AL-only formats.
He has plenty of power, but does not elevate the ball with enough frequency to suggest he will ever put up outstanding home run numbers (his swing has produced a fly ball rate of 36, 36 and 35 percent over the last three years)... so temper your expectations accordingly.
Look for him to go in the sixth round in mixed leagues and the fourth round in AL-only formats.
Carl Crawford, OF (BOS)
3 of 17
Crawford, widely considered one of the best outfielders in the game, hit .307, with 19 HR, 90 RBI, 47 SB and 110 runs in 2010. It was just the second time in his career that he reached last year's MLB-averages in all five categories in the same season (2006).
In November he filed for free agency, and one month later he signed one of the richest contracts in MLB history (seven years, $142 million) with the Boston Red Sox.
In 2011, he will call someplace other than Tampa home for the first time. It remains to be seen what kind of impact Fenway Park will have on his offensive performance, though it seems likely his new home will mitigate the uptick he displayed in his power metric during the second half of last year.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF (COL)
4 of 17
Carlos Gonzalez was originally a top prospect in the Arizona farm system, but he was traded to Oakland in December of 2007 as part of the Dan Haren deal. He broke into the big leagues with the Athletics in 2008 accompanied by great expectations, but hit only .242 with 4 HR in 302 at-bats. The A's then shipped him to Colorado at the end of the 2008 season as part of the Matt Holliday trade.
He showed some potential in the 2009 season, but no one could have realistically expected that just one year later his performance would spark discussions of a potential Triple Crown. While he came up short in both home runs (4th) and RBI (2nd), his final stat line was extremely impressive... he hit .336, with 34 HR, 117 RBI, 26 SB and 111 runs.
Looking ahead to the 2011 season, he has joined fellow outfielders Ryan Braun, Carl Crawford and Matt Kemp as likely first-rounders. The problem is that he is young and has produced big numbers just once. There is no track record to base his selection on as there is with Braun and Crawford, so selecting him early may be a roll of the dice. A high hit-percentage in the second half helped drive his batting average, which is likely to regress this year. It remains to be seen whether he will be able to sustain the increase in his home run rate (his hr/f was 21 percent last year).
Jason Heyward, OF (ATL)
5 of 17
Heyward made his big league debut last year and largely lived up to the hype that surrounded his much-anticipated arrival in Atlanta. While he hit just .277, he drew 91 walks and posted an excellent .393 OBP. His other numbers were very solid as well. He hit 18 HR, drove in 72 runs, scored 83 runs and stole 11 bases. He was voted to be a starter in the All-Star game (which he missed because of injury) and was the runner-up in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting to Buster Posey.
And he did all of this while battling knee and thumb issues.
He will be 21 years old on Opening Day. He is reputed to be a workaholic focused on becoming one of the best overall players in the game. As with Choo, his low fly ball rate (27 percent) and high ground ball rate (55 percent) should conspire to keep his home run production below the level his innate power suggests he'll produce. A minor adjustment in his swing mechanics may be in the offing in order to increase the lift on his balls in play.
If you're looking to find this year's version of Carlos Gonzalez, this guy would be a really good place to start.
Kelly Johnson, 2B (AZ)
6 of 17
The southwest seems to have agreed with Kelly Johnson.
In his first year in Phoenix after four seasons in Atlanta, Johnson busted out, hitting .284, with 26 HR, 71 RBI, 13 SB and 93 R. All of this just one season removed from hitting .224 with 8 HR (in 303 AB) for the Braves.
While Johnson had a nice season, there is nothing about his skill set that suggests he is about to repeat last year's performance in terms of power and production. Last year's numbers (including peripherals) are all outliers and suggest that he'll regress. Entering last year, his home run percentage was 2.3 percent, but last year it spiked to 3.9 percent. It is unlikely he will sustain that number.
That said, he has a good batting eye and should continue to draw walks at an above-average rate. His on-base skills suggest he will continue to get stolen base opportunities, and so owners should enjoy double-digit SBs even if his home run total returns to the 12-15 plateau.
Evan Longoria, 3B (TB)
7 of 17
The former AL Rookie of the Year has been in the major leagues for three seasons. In that time, he has been selected to the All-Star team three times awarded a Gold Glove twice, and received a Silver Slugger award. Last year, he hit .294, with 22 HR, 104 RBI, 15 SB and 96 R.
All of his statistical metrics indicate a stable or improving performance trend, but it appears he will likely take a step backwards in 2011. Gone are Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, the two guys who have been his table-setter and protection in the lineup. It will be difficult for LF Johnny Damon to provide as many RBI opportunities, or for Manny Ramirez (or anyone else) to provide a sufficient power threat behind him in the lineup. I expect opposing pitchers will pitch around him on a consistent basis, so it's likely he may only drive in something in the vicinity of 90 runs while scoring 80 runs.
He is still an elite fantasy 3B, but projections of his power and production may need to be tempered.
Hunter Pence, OF (HOU)
8 of 17
Pence isn't a big-time star, but that is more a product of his circumstances than his talents. Imagine how well-known someone of his talent would be if he played in Boston or New York instead of Houston.
If he were on a ballclub where he was surrounded by lots of talent, he would be a household name.
Last year, he hit .282, with 25 HR, 91 RBI, 18 SB and 93 R playing for the lowly Astros. His numbers have been pretty consistent during his brief career. You can probably expect his runs scored to regress back to the high-70s; otherwise, what you see is what you get.
Albert Pujols, 1B (STL)
9 of 17
Is there ANYONE out there who thinks there is another baseball player who should be the first pick in your 2011 fantasy baseball draft?
Anyone?
Pujols is the epitome of consistency and is the unquestioned class of the fantasy baseball world. He is a former Rookie of the Year, a three-time MVP (he's also finished second in the voting four other times) and a six-time recipient of the Silver Slugger Award. In 2010, he hit .312, with 42 HR, 118 RBI, 14 SB and 115 runs.
The only question surrounding Pujols is his worth in terms of annual salary and contract length in the real world of pro baseball. There are numerous reports circulating that the Cardinals are thinking about inking him to a 10-year, $300 million deal.
Pujols is 30 years old, and while he is still in his prime, he is nearing the back end of his prime. Not that his production will diminish in the next three or four years, but how much do you pay a guy (in terms of annual salary and number of years) whose best days will be behind him by 2014?
Do you think the New York Yankees still believe A-Rod's contract is a good deal for them? If St. Louis is willing to sign Pujols to a 10-year contract, how will they view that deal in 2015?
Alexei Ramirez, SS (CWS)
10 of 17
The 29-year-old native of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, has put up solid but unspectacular numbers in his first three years in the big leagues. As his presence on this list indicates, he'll contribute to your team's success in all five fantasy categories.
Last year, he hit .282, with 18 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB and 83 runs scored. His performance in the second half could be a harbinger of good things to come in 2011, but he is another guy whose ground ball and fly ball rates (48 and 33 percent, respectively) will serve to keep his home run total lower than what you might expect for a player with his power.
Considering the dearth of talent at the position, he will be one of the first shortstops taken off your draft boards.
In AL-only formats, in particular, he is one of the only premier options available (along with Elvis Andrus and Derek Jeter). Thereafter, the drop-off in production at the position is significant. According to CBS Sports he has been going in the fifth round, but you may want to reach for him a little earlier to secure a productive contributor at shortstop.
Hanley Ramirez, SS (FLA)
11 of 17
Few shortstops in MLB history could post a season like Ramirez did last year (.300, 21 HR, 76 RBI, 32 SB, 92 R) and have it be considered an off-year; yet, that is the case with this former Rookie of the Year and three-time All-Star.
HanRam has alternated excellent seasons (in even-numbered years) with outstanding campaigns (in odd-numbered years), so it would seem he is due to have another monster year in 2011. He should be one of the first three or four players off your draft board in mixed-league formats.
That said, there are questions that surround his performance. His ground ball rate spiked to more than fifty percent last year (51). And you have to wonder whether he'll ever get back to stealing bases at the pace he did back in 2006 and 2007. His stolen base attempts in the last two seasons (35 and 42, respectively) are down, and it is unclear whether the change in his approach on the basepaths are his own.
Alex Rios, OF (CWS)
12 of 17
In 2007, Rios appeared to be on the verge of becoming one of baseball's next great superstars but his performance slid in 2008 and then fell even further in 2009. Frustrated by his apparent lack of interest in the game, the Blue Jays dumped him (and his contract) on the White Sox in 2009.
Rios' sleepwalk continued throughout the remainder of the '09 season in spite of his new uniform (.199, 3 HR in 146 AB) and it appeared he might never reach his potential. But someone or something apparently got to him last off-season. He rebounded to have (arguably) the best year of his career, hitting .284, with 21 HR, 88 RBI, 34 SB and 89 runs scored.
He once again had a scary-bad drop off in the second half of the 2010 season. As 2011 approaches. it is unclear whether he has turned a corner or will slide into the same malaise he exhibited in Toronto.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS (COL)
13 of 17
Troy Tulowitzki is arguably the second-best shortstop in terms of fantasy production and is one of the few guys who is capable of out-performing Hanley Ramirez throughout the course of a full year, as he did last season, when he hit .315, with 27 HR, 95 RBI, 11 SB and 89 R.
He can drive fantasy owners a little crazy, as he is prone to get off to slow starts (as he has a .224 career batting average in March/April), so it's important for his owners to be patient early in the year.
Another caveat: he hit 15 home runs and drove in 40 runs in September, otherwise his season was a bit unremarkable.
What can you expect from him in 2011? Who knows, really? It may be best to let another owner in your league roll the dice with their first-round pick. There are other players who offer better odds of producing the numbers that are expected from a first-round selection.
Justin Upton, OF (AZ)
14 of 17
Upton was "Mr. Average 2010". His numbers were amazingly similar to the statistical averages identified by the Professor in his article. He hit .273, with 17 HR, 69 RBI, 18 SB and 73 R.
Most baseball pundits expected his production to continue to trend upwards after his breakout campaign in 2009, but his performance faltered last year in each of the five fantasy categories. While his season was largely considered a disappointment, he is still one of only 17 players to make this list.
When you consider he is only 23 years old, you can understand the reason several teams made overtures to the D'Backs this winter with respect to dealing for him. It is possible that a small labrum tear held back his production in the second half of 2010. It is also possible that he has plateaued and that further growth may be a couple of years away.
He is currently going in the middle of the third round in CBS mock drafts.
Joey Votto, 1B (CIN)
15 of 17
Votto's performance has improved in each of the three years he has been a full-timer in the major leagues. While most pundits projected he would continue to improve statistically, no one could have foreseen that he would win the NL MVP award with a .324 average, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 16 SB and 106 R. Additionally, he recorded a league-leading .424 OBP and .600 slugging percentage.
The question is whether he'll continue to improve. While his strikeout rate (19.3 percent) was slightly more than the MLB-average (17.8), his walk rate (14 percent) was considerably better than average (8.7) so it is likely he'll maintain superior offensive production.
It seems unlikely he'll be unable to maintain his performance at such a high level as he performed in 2010, but it is a near-certainty that fantasy owners can count on an average of .300, with 30 HR, 85 RBI and a half-dozen stolen bases.
While I suspect Carlos Gonzalez may struggle to come close to his performance in 2010, I believe Votto will be able to reasonably approximate last year's numbers.
Jayson Werth, OF (WAS)
16 of 17
Werth has put together three very good seasons back-to-back-to-back, culminating with last year's .296, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 13 SB and 106 runs scored... but was he really worth the kind of contract he signed with Washington back in December (seven-years, $126 million)?
The obvious answer is "no".
The Nationals were desperate to announce their presence as a serious player in baseball, and Werth was the beneficiary of that desire... but while he has been a solid fantasy contributor (he has averaged .279, 29 HR and 84 RBI over these last three years) his production certainly was not worthy of a $126 million windfall.
In 2011, there will be tremendous pressure on him to live up to his contrac, and it says here he won't be up to the challenge. Sorry, Nats fans, but he's moving from one of the better home run parks in baseball to one that is statistically neutral. He is moving from a Phillies lineup that is filled with offensive might (where there was no pressure on him to be a key run producer) to a lineup where he will be expected to be one of the straws that stir the drink.
The expectations for him will be unreasonably high. As such, picking him early in your fantasy draft will be an enormous gamble.
David Wright, 3B (NYM)
17 of 17
After a brutal 2009 season, Wright bounced back and posted the kind of strong statistical season we’ve come to expect from him over the years. He got back to around 30 homers and knocked in more than a hundred runs while playing 157 games (.283, 29 HR, 103 RBI, 19 SB and 87 R).
Still, his contact rate has declined for three straight years (from 81 to 73 percent) so there is some question whether his batting average will rebound to the .300 level.
He's been one of the truly elite fantasy third basemen over the last several years, along with A-Rod, Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman. The performance by Jose Bautista last season suggests you can add his name to that list, although the fact he has had only one year of superior production should keep him at a level below those others due to the consistency factor.
Look for Wright to be selected sometime in the second round of your mixed-league draft.
