MLB Predictions: Naming Robinson Cano and the AL East Preseason All-Stars
For all the statistics we pore over as baseball writers and fans, the most definitive marker of a team's performance is that final won-loss record after 162 regular season games. From that kind of "bird's-eye view," it's easy to see that the American League East features the best collection of players of any division in the game.
While AL East teams don't always win -- or even reach -- the World Series, three different AL East teams have made it to the World Series in the last four years, with the 2007 Red Sox and 2009 Yankees emerging as World Champions. Perhaps more importantly, though, the AL East has proved in recent years that it is the division with the most top-tier teams and the most depth.
In 2010, the AL East was the only division to feature two teams that won at least 95 games and four teams that won at least 85 games. The AL East was also the only division with two 95-plus win teams in 2009, when it had baseball's only 100-win team (the Yankees). In fact, the AL East has produced two teams with 94 or more wins for four consecutive years, while no other division in baseball has accomplished that feat even once during that time. They might as well change the name of the AL Wild Card to "AL East Runner-up."
So who are the best players in baseball's best division?
I recently put together a position-by-position comparison of what should be the division's two best teams in 2011: the Yankees and the Red Sox. But some members of the Rays, Blue Jays and Orioles deserve to be in the conversation for the division's best, too.
Without further ado, here are the American League East's preseason All-Stars.
Catcher: Matt Wieters, Orioles
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We begin with a position where neither the Yankees or Red Sox reign supreme. As I recently detailed, newly-acquired Yankees catcher Russell Martin is coming off of two straight poor seasons, a fractured hip, and offseason knee surgery, while the Red Sox will rely on some combination of an unproven Jarrod Saltalamacchia and well-past-his-prime Jason Varitek behind the plate.
The Rays' catching situation is also underwhelming, with neither John Jaso nor Kelly Shoppach likely to suddenly take the league by storm. The American League East's top catcher, then, comes down to Mike Napoli of the Blue Jays and Matt Wieters of the Orioles.
The Blue Jays acquired Napoli and outfielder Juan Rivera from the Angels on January 21 in exchange for Vernon Wells and his hefty contract. Seeing increased playing time at 1B after Kendry Morales was lost to injury, Napoli put up a career-high 453 at-bats, 26 HRs and 68 RBIs in 2010, but hit just .238. He also topped 20 HRs in 2008 and 2009, while managing to hit above .270.
Playing time was always an issue for Napoli in Anaheim, because he was a notoriously poor defensive catcher who spent ample time in manager Mike Scoscia's dog house. Napoli figures to find his way into the lineup more consistently in Toronto, whether at catcher, DH or first base, and he can safely be expected to again reach 20 HRs with a batting average around his career mark of .251. J.P. Arencibia, a power-hitting prospect who debuted for the Blue Jays last August, will likely have to wait at least one more year to get a shot at an everyday catching job.
Wieters, a highly-touted prospect who was the fifth overall pick in the 2007 draft, had a disappointing 2010 campaign in which he failed to live up to expectations that he would quickly develop into an elite offensive catcher. He hit just .249 after hitting .288 in 2009, and also showed little growth in the power department, finishing with just 11 HRs and 55 RBIs.
However, Wieters is just 24 years old and his future remains bright. Early reports suggest he is very focused on improving his offensive game this year, and while those are just words, Wieters should at least moderately improve this year, with a true breakout still possible.
Wieters should significantly outperform Napoli in batting average, and their powers numbers could end up being quite similar. When you also account for the fact that Wieters is a very good defensive catcher, whereas Napoli will not even play the position full time, Wieters earns the nod as the AL East's best.
First Base: Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox
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Four of the five AL East teams will start 2011 with new first basemen.
The Rays open 2011 in the weakest spot at the position, as mediocre veteran Dan Johnson is currently slated to start now that Carlos Pena left for the Cubs in free agency. Johnson is a .243 career hitter who has never hit 20 HRs in a season.
The Orioles and Blue Jays, on the other hand, will both turn to players who had huge 2009 seasons followed by poor 2010 campaigns.
The O's signed Derrek Lee to a 1-year deal hoping he can produce like he did in 2009. Lee hit just .260 with 19 HRs and 80 RBIs for the Cubs last year, after putting up a terrific .306-91-35-111 line the previous year, his best since 2005. While some slight improvement on last season's performance is possible, Lee is very unlikely to return to All-Star form at 35 years old.
Age is not an impediment for the Blue Jays' Adam Lind, but Lind's true ability remains in question. He burst onto the scene in 2009 with a huge .305-93-35-114 line, but followed that up by hitting just .237 with 23 HRs and 72 RBIs in 150 games in 2010. Lind will have to reestablish himself as a major league regular while also learning to play first base after having mostly been a DH. He's unlikely to come close to his 2009 numbers, but should rebound significantly from last year while playing shaky defense.
Lind's a nice young player, but it's quite obvious that the debate over the AL East's best first baseman comes down to the Yankees' Mark Teixeira and the Red Sox' newly-acquired Adrian Gonzalez. Both players are among the five best all-around first basemen in baseball, and both should easily surpass 30 HRs and 100 RBIs while hitting above .285. But because Gonzalez has put up comparable numbers to Teixeira over the last four years while hitting in a much tougher environment, his move from spacious Petco Park to the bandbox at Fenway makes Gonzalez an even better bet than Teixeira for a .300-40-120 season.
I break down the Gonzalez-Teixeira match-up in greater detail here.
Second Base: Robinson Cano, Yankees
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The title of the article gives this one away, but it's still worth examining all of the quality second basemen the AL East has to offer.
Sean Rodriguez should be the Rays' primary second baseman in 2011, although Ben Zobrist could also see time there. Rodriguez could put up 15 HRs and 15 SBs, but should struggle in the batting average department.
The Blue Jays' Aaron Hill is an excellent power hitter, but his .205 average last year shows that he can be a batting average liability. A .265 average with 25 HRs seems like a reasonable expectation for 2011.
The Orioles' Brian Roberts was once one of the best second basemen in baseball, but age and injuries have begun to take their toll. However, Roberts could still hit 10 HRs and steal 30 bases while batting above .280, and he'll still score plenty of runs if the rest of the lineup does their part.
While Hill and Roberts are decent players, this is another match-up that clearly comes down to the Yankees and Red Sox. As I explain further here, Robinson Cano and Dustin Pedroia are tough to compare because Cano relies more on power while Pedroia utilizes his speed. But until Pedroia can prove that he can still reach base as consistently as Cano, Cano deserves the edge as the AL East's best second baseman.
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Shortstop: Derek Jeter, Yankees
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Even as his productivity wanes, Derek Jeter is the AL East's best shortstop. Jeter is now 36, but he should still be able to hit at least .280 while scoring plenty of runs and adding 10-15 HRs and around 15 stolen bases.
No other shortstop in the division really stands out. The Rays' Reid Brignac is a promising -- but largely unproven -- young player, and so is the Red Sox' Jed Lowrie, who is competing with Marco Scutaro for the starting job. Scutaro, the Orioles' J.J. Hardy and the Blue Jays' Yunel Escobar are all solid veterans that stand little chance of finishing among baseball's elite at the position.
Hardy could top 20 HRs, but Escobar is probably the division's second best shortstop. Escobar is known for off-the-field issues, but if he can stay focused, he could hit .300 with double digit power and good defense.
Third Base: Evan Longoria, Rays
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Bigtime offensive third basemen are becoming harder and harder to find across baseball, but that trend doesn't seem to apply to the American League East. All five AL East teams will feature dangerous hitters at the hot corner.
Newly-acquired Orioles third baseman Mark Reynolds has to come in at the bottom of the AL East 3B rankings to begin 2011 for one reason: he hit below the Mendoza line last year (.198). That being said, few hitters in baseball possess Reynold's pure power, and he should be good for at least 30 HRs and 10 SBs even while striking out at a record-breaking pace. If Reynolds can hit even .240 this year, he'll be a significantly above-average offensive third baseman.
Blue Jays fans may feel that Jose Bautista deserves to top this list, since he led all of baseball in HRs (54) and RBIs (124) in an incredible 2010 campaign. But there are warning signs with Bautista, starting with the fact that he had never previously topped 16 HRs or 63 RBIs in a season and the rate of fly balls he hit that went for home runs in 2010 was well above his career average. Bautista is also a .244 career hitter, and that part of his game didn't change much in 2010: he ended up at .260. Expect his 2011 numbers to look a lot like Reynolds' across the board.
The final three AL East third basemen are all more complete players than Reynolds and Bautista. My determination that the Red Sox' Kevin Youkilis is better at this point in his career than the Yankees' Alex Rodriguez has produced a lot of debate -- on both sides. As I explained, because Rodriguez, who will turn 36 years old this season, is unlikely to significantly rebound from last year in batting average and runs, Youkilis should easily outproduce him in those categories while staying relatively close in HRs and RBIs.
But as it turns out, the Youkilis-A-Rod debate, while interesting, is really a battle for second place. The Rays' Evan Longoria is the AL East's best third baseman.
Through the first three years of his big league career, Longoria has steadily improved both his batting average and his stolen base totals. He has averaged 27 HRs per year, while putting up at least 96 Runs and 104 RBIs in each of the last two years. With some untapped power potential still forthcoming, it's not hard to imagine Longoria putting up a .300-100-35-120-10 line in 2011. Add in the fact that Longoria is probably baseball's best defensive third baseman, and you have the AL East's preseason All-Star at the position.
Left Field: Carl Crawford, Red Sox
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Red Sox OF Carl Crawford is the AL East's best left fielder; a consistent .300 hitter with top-notch speed, excellent defense and 15-20 HR power. He should easily surpass 100 Runs hitting in the Red Sox lineup, and could exchange some stolen bases for RBIs if he bats third in the lineup instead of leadoff.
The Yankees' Brett Gardner is Crawford's equal when it comes to speed and defense, but he lacks power and is not a .300 hitter.
The Rays recently signed Johnny Damon to man left field until top prospect Desmond Jennings is ready to take over. Damon may still have enough left in the tank to hit around .275 with 15 HRs and 10 SBs, but his All-Star days are over. Jennings will be a major threat on the base paths as soon as he's given an extended opportunity, but the rest of his game will take longer to develop.
If he's able to stay healthy and play everyday, newly-acquired Blue Jay Juan Rivera could conceivably hit .290 with 25 HRs. However, he offers little in the way of speed, and his overall offensive production has been very inconsistent.
The Orioles' Felix Pie was once a highly-touted prospect, but he has yet to top 10 HRs, 10 SBs or a .275 batting average in parts of four major league seasons. He could eventually end up in a platoon with Nolan Reimold.
Center Field: Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox
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The AL East's best center fielder is a close call, but the Red Sox' Jacoby Ellsbury gets the slight edge over the Yankees' Curtis Granderson because of Ellsbury's ability to reach first base and wreak havoc once he gets there.
Ellsbury is a .291 career hitter who had 120 stolen bases between the 2008 and 2009 seasons. Ellsbury's 2010 campaign was a disaster due to rib injuries, but he has had plenty of time to completely heal up. He should be able to return to his role as a key table-setter for the Red Sox, while adding about 10 HRs.
Granderson has the all-around ability to surpass Ellsbury, having put up 20-20 and 30-20 seasons in his career. But Granderson has hit below .250 each of the last two years, and stole just 12 bases last year. Granderson should hit close to 25 HRs, but he'll need to hit at least .275 and steal at least 20 bases to approximate Ellsbury's value.
The Rays' B.J. Upton and the Orioles' Adam Jones were once considered top prospects, and both still have a lot of unrealized potential. Upton and Jones could each easily hit 20-plus homers in 2011, and Upton should be able to steal 40-plus bases once again. But Jones has yet to produce any eye-catching numbers, and Upton has been a major batting average liability the last two years. One or both could breakout in 2011, but until they do they belong behind Ellsbury and Granderson.
The Blue Jays' Rajai Davis could be an Ellsbury-lite if he can stay healthy. Davis is capable of hitting about .290 with 40-50 SBs and a handful of homers.
Right Field: Nick Markakis, Orioles
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Orioles OF Nick Markakis is coming off a year he'd like to forget, but his potential to put up across-the-board production means he is still the AL East's best right fielder. Markakis is a .298 career hitter who hit right at that level in 2010, with the second-highest on-base percentage of his career. It was his power that was missing, as he only hit 12 HRs and drove in just 60. The Orioles added some nice lineup protection for him in the offseason, and Markakis is still just 27 years old. He averaged about 20 HRs per season prior to last year, so expect him to rebound with a line approaching .300-100-20-100-10.
Toronto's Travis Snider may have the potential to someday be the division's best right fielder, but he's not there yet. Snider already has 25 HR power, but it remains to be seen whether he'll be able to hit for average and whether his power will continue to develop further. For now, it's unlikely he hits above .270 or breaks the 30 HR plateau.
The Rays' starting right fielder to open the season should be Ben Zobrist, who can play all over the field. Zobrist put up a very solid .297-91-27-91 line in 2009, but he hit just .238 last year with only 10 HRs. Zobrist is a .253 career hitter through his first 1,500 major league at-bats, and he was not a big power hitter in the minors, so a .270 average and 20 HRs seems like an optimistic expectation for him.
The Yankees' Nick Swisher is coming off a career-best .288-91-29-89 line that resembled Zobrist's 2009 performance. Swisher is unlikely to come close to that batting average again (his previous career high was .262), but he could come close to repeating the other numbers. There is not too much separating Swisher and the Red Sox' J.D. Drew, who should be able to post a .280-80-20-65 line while almost certainly missing some time due to injury.
Designated Hitter: Manny Ramirez, Rays
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Manny Ramirez may only be earning $2 million this season, but the newest Tampa Bay Ray has instantly become the best designated hitter in the American League East. Ramirez's power was down in 2010, but he should still be able to launch around 25 homers while batting close to .300. He will likely bat in the heart of the Rays' order, meaning ample Run and RBI totals can also be expected.
There's no question that Ramirez isn't quite the player he once was, but neither are Red Sox DH David Ortiz or Yankees DH Jorge Posada, his main competition. Ortiz is still capable of reaching 30 HRs and 100 RBIs, but he's unlikely to hit better than .270, and could end up hitting significantly lower than that if things go sour like they did in 2009. Posada is also declining, and even a typical Posada year wouldn't look nearly as impressive at DH as it did at catcher. An optimistic take would be that he can rebound to a .270-20-80 line now that he can avoid the wear-and-tear of catching duties.
The division's other two designated hitters are two of the more inconsistent and unpredictable players in baseball. The Blue Jays' Edwin Encarnacion has flashed 25-plus HR power, but he's also been known for staggering slumps that have led to batting averages south of .250 and speculation about his mental focus. Baltimore's Luke Scott has three straight seasons of at least 23 HRs, but he has never reached 500 at-bats or 80 RBIs. It also remains to be seen if last season's .284 batting average was a fluke considering he hadn't topped .258 in any of the previous three seasons.
The Starting Rotation: Lester, Sabathia, Price, Buchholz, and Hughes
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The top three starters in the AL East are clear: they're the respective aces for the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays.
The Yankees' C.C. Sabathia and the Red Sox' Jon Lester have both proven themselves capable of eating over 200 innings and posting a sub-3.50 ERA, 15-plus Wins and 200 strikeouts. They both also have consistently had strong WHIPs, walk rates and strikeout rates.
While less seasoned than Sabathia and Lester, the Rays' David Price was every bit as dominating in 2010, posting a 2.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 188 strikeouts, to go along with 19 Wins. Price needs to have another strong year to show that he can maintain that level of performance, but that shouldn't be a problem with his skill set. In fact, he could become even better in 2011.
The fourth starter is also easy to identify. Like Price, Boston's Clay Buchholz was a top prospect that established himself as a top pitcher in 2010. Buchholz won 17 games last year with a 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Buchholz's ERA could go up by about a run, but he'd still be one of the best pitchers in the American League.
The fifth spot is far and away the most difficult to determine. Those worth considering include the Red Sox' Josh Beckett and John Lackey, who are both looking to return to being top-of-the-rotation starters after poor 2010 campaigns; the Yankees' Phil Hughes, a top prospect who posted good peripherals despite an ERA over 4; the Blue Jays' Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, each of whom has shown flashes of brilliance; the Orioles' Jeremy Guthrie, who hardly dominates but has posted sub-4 ERAs with strong WHIPs in three of the last four years; and two live young arms, the O's Brian Matusz and the Rays' Jeremy Hellickson. The slightest of edges goes to Hughes for having the best combination of recent performance and upside.
The Bullpen: Mariano Rivera, Rafael Soriano and Jonathan Papelbon
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We'll limit the bullpen to the best three relievers in the division. The Rays have no clear closer at the moment, and while the Orioles' Kevin Gregg and Blue Jays' Octavio Dotel can hold their own in the ninth inning, neither is close to All-Star caliber. So this is another category that comes down to the Red Sox and Yankees.
The first spot goes to one of the greatest relievers in baseball history, Mariano Rivera. Rivera is like a fine wine because he only seems to get better with age. Rivera has posted sub-2 ERAs in seven of the last eight seasons and a WHIP below 1 in five of the last six years. He should again be good for close to 40 saves while rarely blowing an opportunity to close the door.
Rafael Soriano, who will now be setting up for Rivera in the Bronx, was one of the best relievers in the game last year and will be one again this year, as long as he stays healthy. The only difference is that Soriano will be picking up holds instead of saves, barring an injury to the incredibly durable Rivera. Soriano may not have an ERA under 2 -- he'd only done that once before last year -- but a sub-3 ERA with strong peripherals is likely.
Finally, the Red Sox' Jonathan Papelbon is still one of the best closers in the game. Papelbon had a disappointing 3.90 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and eight blown saves in 2010, but before that he put up four straight years with an ERA under 2.40. Papelbon may be showing some signs of wear and tear, and Daniel Bard will probably be the one closing games in dominating fashion for the Red Sox in 2012. But for now, Papelbon should have plenty left in the tank for a contract year push.
Batting Order/Recap
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If the AL East's preseason All-Stars were to actually play a game, this would be my proposed lineup:
1. Carl Crawford, LF
2. Nick Markakis, RF
3. Robinson Cano, 2B
4. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
5. Evan Longoria, 3B
6. Manny Ramirez, DH
7. Derek Jeter, SS
8. Matt Wieters, C
9. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
In case you're wondering, the AL East preseason All-Star team features six members of the Red Sox, six Yankees, three Rays and two Orioles.
Several Blue Jays were considered, but none made the final cut. Of course, if they decide to move Bautista to right field, then we may have a different story. Only time will tell if these Bleacher Report rankings factor into the Blue Jays' decision making process.
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