New York Mets 2011 Spring Training Preview: No Expectations = No Disappointment
Although the entire city of New York is focused on the Jets and their quest for the Lombardi trophy, it's tough to ignore the fact that Spring Training is under a month a way. After all, New York is and always will be a baseball town.
Mets pitchers and catchers report to Port St. Lucie on Feb. 18th after a rather quiet offseason. The Mets front office and coaching staff may look a lot different, but the roster hasn't changed much.
The biggest change to the Mets roster came in the form of injury. Shocker. They'll be without Johan Santana, their best and highest paid starting pitcher, until at least July as he recovers from surgery to repair a torn anterior capsule in his throwing shoulder. Reports came out last week that Santana has been cleared to begin playing catch this month, which puts him right on schedule for a mid-season return to the team.
Sandy Alderson did exactly what he said he was going to do this offseason. He wasn't going to make a splash by signing a Cliff Lee or a Carl Crawford. That's how we got into this mess in the first place. He was committed to making improvements to the team while still maintaining long-term payroll flexibility. How does one do that? Well, you use the Rule Five draft as well as the reclamation project approach. You can also call this the "Low Risk, High Reward Approach."
The 2011 season is going to be about patience. Alderson understands the fans frustration, but he also understands the only way to fix this franchise is to have a plan and to be true to it. He can't give in to the fans' frustration and make a move that could possibly set this team back farther just to grab a couple of headlines and sell a few tickets. That is not what Alderson is about.
The Mets will have almost $60 million coming off the books at the end of 2011 heading into a star-studded free-agent class that will include the likes of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. That being said, the Mets slogan for 2011 should be "Hang Tight."
In terms of position players, the 2011 lineup will be very similar to the one we thought we were going to see in 2010. Carlos Beltran's offseason knee surgery, Jose Reyes' thyroid gland and Jason Bay's post-concussion symptoms kept us from seeing it at full strength. In Alderson's and new manager Terry Collins' eyes, if this group is healthy, it is going to score a ton of runs. The major questions for this team are going to come from the mound.
Below is a position-by-position preview as we head into Spring Training. There may not be much turnover from 2010, but there will definitely be some very entertaining competitions and tough decisions for Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson to make as they trim down the roster before opening day.
First Base
1 of 10
Ike Davis will head to Port St. Lucie knowing the first base job is his. There is no Mike Jacobs or Fernando Tatis here to steal at-bats from him.
Davis had an up-and-down rookie campaign. He started out like a house of fire but went through a slump in the second half of the season. He batted .214 in July and .250 in August where he drove in only five runs before having a terrific September (.344).
For Davis, 2011 will be about avoiding the sophomore slump. The book is out on Davis now. Opposing teams will be studying those at-bats from July and August, and it will be Ike's job to adjust. His great play at first base along with the 19 HR's, 71 RBI's and 33 doubles as a rookie has made him a fan favorite. It has also made expectations for 2011 very high.
With Pujols and Fielder likely to hit the market next offseason, it is important for Davis to avoid hitting the rocks in 2011. New York can turn on you very fast, especially when there is a future Hall of Famer set to hit the market.
Second Base
2 of 10
This is the only position not locked up by anyone on the roster.
You would think that Luis Castillo has the leg up on the competition because of his salary ($6 million). Not according to Terry Collins. The new Mets skipper made it very clear second base will be an open competition this spring.
Ruben Tejada struggled last season after being rushed into a starting roll but seems poised to start the season at Triple-A Buffalo where he'll be given time to develop. The competition will be between Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Rule Five pick and J.P. Riccardi favorite Brad Emaus and Justin Turner.
Barring a huge spring, I believe the Mets will buy out Castillo's contract before opening day so that rules him out. Turner has minor league options so he'll be sent to Buffalo as insurance. That narrows the competition to Murphy and Emaus.
The injury-bug bit Murphy last season. He injured his knee last March and then suffered a high-grade MCL tear in June while playing at Triple-A, which caused him to miss the rest of the season.
He began playing second base for the Aguilas in the Dominican Republic and batted .320 with four HRs and 22 RBI before straining his left hamstring. There is no question Murphy can hit, the real question is whether he can stay healthy and display enough range at second base where Collins can justify starting him. Murphy will make the club, either as left-handed bat off the bench or a starting second baseman.
Standing in Murphy's path will be Brad Emaus, who was drafted by Toronto in 2007 by J.P. Riccardi before being claimed by the Mets in the Rule Five draft last month. Emaus put up impressive numbers at Triple-A Las Vegas, .298 BA/.395 OBP/.495 SLG to go with 25 doubles and 10 HRs. In order to win the job, he'll have to show Collins he is the better defensive choice over Murphy.
Before this winter, Murphy only played 19 games at second base in his major league career, none of them being above AAA where he sported an unimpressive .954 fielding percentage. Emaus has played 266 games in the minor leagues as a second baseman and sports a .981 fielding percentage.
Emaus would have to be returned to Toronto if he is not on the 25-man roster so that gives him a leg up on the competition. Barring some real sloppy play at second, Emaus will probably be the Mets starting second baseman on opening day.
Third Base
3 of 10
For David Wright, 2010 saw the return of his power numbers. After an alarming 10-HR, 72-RBI 2009 season, Wright bounced back with 29 HRs and 103 RBI. Great, right? Not really. Wright's power numbers returned, but he batted below .300 (.283) for the first time in his career. He also saw his OBP hit a career low (.354) while setting a career-high for strikeouts (161). He also only walked 69 times.
The Mets will go as far as Wright takes them. Granted, the strikeouts and dip in batting average can be attributed to Wright trying to do too much with Beltran and Bay missing so much time. You won't hear Wright making those excuses. He knows he has to be better.
The Mets need Wright to be the complete player he was before they opened Citi Field. When Wright is hot, he is one of the best players in baseball. If he can find his way, the Mets will be competitive and may fight for a Wild Card berth.
This spring, I'll look for Wright to cut down on his strikeouts and get back to being the high average-on base percentage player he needs to be.
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Shortstop
4 of 10
The 2011 season could very well be the end of the Jose Reyes era in Flushing. The Mets picked up Jose's $11 million option, but Sandy Alderson remains mum on extending Reyes.
Jose Reyes' future with the Mets is very complicated. If Jose Reyes is to remain a New York Met beyond this year, you'll have to see a tremendous season from him along with the Mets being a contender. Let me tell you why I see it like that.
If Reyes has a great season and the Mets do not, Alderson may have to seriously think about dealing Reyes in order to re-stock the minor leagues. If he chooses not to deal Reyes without an extension in place, and the Mets fall out of it, questions will certainly be raised in the offseason as to how Alderson handled the situation as well as whether the Mets can win with Reyes.
If Reyes has a great season and the Mets are a playoff team, it will be hard for ownership and Alderson to justify letting the home grown Reyes go elsewhere. Jose is a fan favorite and has a passion for the game unlike many players in baseball today, but at the end of the day, Alderson will make the move that makes sense for the franchise moving forward.
With Carl Crawford receiving a seven-year, $142 million dollar deal from Boston, you can easily see a productive Reyes asking for something in that ballpark. To say Reyes could price himself out of New York sounds crazy at first, but not so crazy, if you stop and think about it. If the team is bad, it will be hard to justify committing that much money to a player who's been part of a group that hasn't been to the playoffs since 2006.
Either way, the spotlight will be on the Jose Reyes situation throughout the spring. Questions are going to follow him everyday like they would any player who is in the last year of his contract. Reyes is a class act so it probably will not get ugly, but it certainly has that potential.
If the team is losing and Reyes is productive, the rumor mill will start up, and that's when we will see how Alderson handles being a general manager in New York City.
Outfield
5 of 10
The outfield personnel are set for opening day, the only question is who will be playing center and who will be in right. Jason Bay will be in left and is said to be 100 percent after a concussion in Los Angeles forced him to miss the rest of the season.
The real dilemma for Collins is whether or not he plays Carlos Beltran in center field. Beltran is one year removed from having surgery on his right knee and did not play a game until mid-July of last year.
There were several instances last season where it was evident Beltran had lost a step in center. Major knee surgery and a spacious outfield can do that to you. Beltran will also be forced to wear a brace on his right knee, which doesn't help matters.
Angel Pagan is clearly the better choice for center after making tremendous strides defensively last season. Collins will give Beltran a chance to claim the position he's dominated defensively throughout his career.
He's gone on the record to say he'll sit down with Beltran and discuss the prospect of playing right field. He'll give Beltran two weeks worth of games solely in center field and re-evaluate him from there.
The question is, will this situation be resolved in that two-week timetable or will it carry on up to opening day. For the Mets sake, let's hope not. Pagan and Beltran are extremely close friends so there is no animosity between the two of them.
Beltran is in his walk year and will most definitely not get a contract offer to play center field from another team given his age and injuries. This spring could be a great opportunity for Beltran to showcase himself as a right fielder and line himself up for a nice payday in the offseason.
You can count on Beltran sliding over to right and Pagan patrolling center when the team breaks camp.
Catcher
6 of 10
Terry Collins made it clear early in the offseason that Josh Thole is his starting catcher. Collins loves Thole going back to when he was the Mets minor leagues coordinator. The Mets anointing the 24-year-old Thole with the starting job this early is certainly not like them.
The Mets have always opted to have a veteran catcher behind the dish whether it is Paul Lo Duca, Brian Schneider, Rod Barajas or Henry Blanco. The franchise prides itself on pitching, and they've always believed in having a catcher behind the plate who can handle a pitching staff. For Collins to give Thole the starting nod shows how high he and pitching coach Dan Warthen are on him.
This spring, it will be great to see how Thole handles the responsibility of being the every day catcher. He'll need to work extra hard with Mike Pelfrey and Jonathon Niese. Both pitchers have a tendency to get inside their own heads when things start to go south; it will be up to Thole to be the type of catcher that Collins and Warthen need him to be. A calming influence with the ability to call the right pitches at the right time.
Spring Training will be about getting Thole acclimated with that role. Warthen and Collins will have their hands full with Pelfrey and Niese given the two will be expected to anchor a Santana-less rotation. Thole needs to step up and become a general behind the plate in order to prove to everyone he is the Mets catcher of the future.
Alderson brought in Ronny Paulino to back up Thole. He'll miss a couple of weeks while he serves a suspension from last season. Thole's critics have always cited his defense as his major flaw. He looked tremendous throwing out would-be base stealers last season (44 percent). He'll need to do more of that to prove he is an every day catcher.
Bench
7 of 10
In my estimation, the Mets are going to carry 12 pitchers. With so many questions at the back end of the rotation, the Mets are going to need plenty of arms in the pen if their four and five starters are only giving them five to six innings a start.
That leaves five spots open for the bench. Ronny Paulino will lock up one spot, with Mike Nickeas filling in for him while he serves his suspension. Down to four spots.
Brad Emaus will win the second base job, and Daniel Murphy will be the left-handed bat off the bench while also having the ability to play 1B, 2B and 3B. Down to three spots.
Luis Castillo has an outside shot at being on the bench, but like I said earlier, I just can't see the Mets not buying him out so I'm not going to factor him into the bench.
That leaves Chin-lung Hu as the backup infielder. The Mets made a trade with the Dodgers for the 2007 Futures Game MVP early in the offseason at the advice of Alderson's right-hand man and former Dodger GM Paul DePodesta. He'll face competition from Luis Hernandez, but I can't see Hu not winning the job.
Hu fell out of favor in LA due to his struggles offensively; he had a pathetic .241 OBP when up with the Dodgers. He has been pegged as a smart base runner that plays tremendous defense, which is a perfect fit for the bench. Hu will not face the pressures of being the 2B of the future, like he did with the Dodgers. He'll be called upon to pinch run, be a defensive replacement and make the occasional start here and there. Down to two spots.
The battle for the fourth and fifth outfielder job will be between Nick Evans, Scott Hairston and Willie Harris. Hairston signed a major league deal with the team last week so he'll almost certainly be on the team as a right-handed power bat.
That leaves a competition between Evans and Harris. Evans is out of minor league options so it's either he makes the team, or he'll most likely be with another club. He failed to make the team last year after a tremendous spring and then saw his career spiral out of control. Evans was so awful at Buffalo he was demoted back to Double-A Binghamton. He then proceeded to go on a tear and even made his way back up to the Mets where he finished the season strong.
Willie Harris was brought in to spice up the competition for the final few spots on the bench. Over the last three seasons, Harris' claim to fame has been the great defensive plays he's made against the Mets while with Atlanta and Washington.
Other than that, he's been awful. Harris batted just .183 for the Nats last season, and although he can play all infield and outfield positions, the Mets are more likely to choose Evans and stick with Hu as the backup middle infielder. Barring an injury, Harris will most likely be looking for work come April.
So the five-man bench will shake out like this: Paulino, Murphy, Hu, Hairston and Evans.
Rotation
8 of 10
The top four spots in the rotation are locked in. Mike Pelfrey will be the opening day starter followed by R.A. Dickey. Jonathon Niese will most like be the No. 3 followed by reclamation project Chris Young in the four hole. Who will be the No. 5?
When talking about the rotation, I have not heard Terry Collins mention Oliver Perez's name even though he is due $12 million this season. Perez pitched in winter ball but was far from impressive. He continued to walk way too many batters, which is what got him into trouble last season.
Perez has not given the Mets any reason to believe he should get another crack at starting. My prediction is that he'll be in the bullpen mix early in the Spring, with the Mets eventually demanding that he take an assignment to Triple-A. If he refuses, I see them releasing him and paying the $12 million. The Perez situation was an on-going distraction in 2010, if the Mets are serious about changing the perception of this team they cannot allow it to happen again.
That leaves the No. 5 spot open to Chris Capuano, Dillon Gee, Pat Misch and Boof Bonser. I am a big fan of Gee, but he has minor league options that will likely hurt him when decision time rolls around. Gee will be a starter in this league, but he could still use some more experience at Triple-A.
Capuano is my favorite to win the job with Misch and Bonser battling for the long reliever job in the bullpen. Capuano is a crafty left-hander who has been a successful starter in the big leagues, even if it was five years and a Tommy John surgery ago. Misch is out of options and may be a dark horse to win the job with Boof Bonser being the long shot.
It will be intriguing to see how Young and Capuano hold up during the spring. Both have tremendous upsides but will have to stay on the field before anyone truly believes they can contribute to any type of playoff push.
Bullpen
9 of 10
Like I said earlier, given the question marks at the back end of the rotation, the Mets will opt to carry 12 pitchers when they leave Port St. Lucie. That leaves seven spots in the bullpen with only three locks. Francisco Rodriguez, D.J. Carrasco and Bobby Parnell are sure things for the opening day team with four spots for the taking.
The long relief duty will likely fall on whoever loses out on the fifth starter job. My prediction is either Pat Misch or Boof Bonser. Misch is more attractive because he is left-handed, and the Mets would like to have a couple of lefties in the pen given their division rivals have big time left-handed sluggers (Howard, Utley, Heyward, etc.). Down to three spots.
The "left-handed specialist" job will be something to keep an eye on this spring now that Pedro Feliciano is gone. The spot will go to Taylor Tankersley, Tim Byrdak, or Michael O'Connor who is a long shot. Tankersley, the former first-round pick of the Marlins out of Alabama, pitched well for Florida after being called up from Tripe-A New Orleans. He finished up the season with lefties batting .200 against him.
The 37-year old Byrdak pitched well for the Astros last season. He finished up with a 3.49 ERA with lefties hitting only .213 against him. Both are on minor league deals so if both struggle the Mets could make a move for another left-hander like Joe Beimel before the end of spring.
My money is on Byrdak. He is a veteran who has posted an ERA below 4.00 for the last four seasons. He could also be great trade bait if the Mets fall out of contention. Down to two spots.
Four relievers will battle it out for two spots and round out the bullpen. Taylor Buchholz, Manny Acosta, Ryota Igarashi and Rule Five pick Pedro Beato.
Manny Acosta opened a lot of eyes last season. He pitched in 41 games for the Mets and posted a 2.95 ERA. What are even more impressive are the 42 strikeouts in 39 innings. Acosta spent time as the Buffalo closer early in the season and really developed some life on his fastball.
The problem with Acosta last year was that he didn't trust his fastball enough. He got burned late in the year by a Melvin Mora grand slam on a hanging slider that left a lot of people scratching their heads. I'll look for Acosta to develop that second pitch this spring, but more importantly, I want to see him throw it when it makes sense. I believe he'll win one of the two remaining spots. Down to one spot.
Buchholz, a former top starting pitching prospect of the Phillies, found a home as a relief pitcher with Colorado in 2008. He missed all of 2009 and half of 2010 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He battled lower back issues with Colorado before ending up in Toronto who eventually waived him. He will definitely be a project for Dan Warthen. Whether or not he can remain healthy and do for the Mets what he did as a set-up man for Colorado in 2008 remains to be seen.
Buchholz's main competitor will be Rule Five-pick Pedro Beato. Ryota Igarashi will need to lights out in order to make this team. He has been wildly inconsistent and has passed through waivers once already this offseason. I expect him to be closing for the Buffalo Bisons.
Beato, who closed for Baltimore's Doube-A affiliate last season is someone to keep an eye on this spring. He was a former draft pick of the New York Mets back in 2005 but was never signed. What's great about Beato is he is a New York guy. He was born in the Dominican Republic but played high school baseball at Xaverian in Brooklyn.
If Beato does not make the opening day roster, he will have to be returned to Baltimore. With so many questions surrounding Buchholz's health, I am going to give the edge to Beato and predict he'll win the final job in the pen.
So the seven-man bullpen shakes out like this: Misch, Beato, Carrasco, Parnell, Byrdak, Acosta and Rodriguez.
Ya Gotta Believe
10 of 10
Make no mistake about it, expectation are incredibly low for this 2011 Mets team despite their $149 million payroll. What I want to look for this Spring is a team that plays the game the right way. I want to see Terry Collins change the culture of this team.
Too many times over the last few seasons, we saw this team hang their heads when they hit a bump in the road. According to Collins, he expects his team to expect to win each and every game. That all sounds great, but it's up to Collins to implant that in the clubhouse and have it translate on to the field of play.
As Mets fans, we've been in this position before. It's disappointing to not be mentioned as a playoff contender but who was talking about the San Francisco Giants at this time last year? This team may not have the rotation the World Champions have, but they certainly have more fire power in the lineup.
Bottom line is Spring Training is the time of the year where the future seems bright. The Mets may be an organization in transition, but they still have the pieces to be relevant if things fall into place. If there was every a time to use the famous Mets phrase "Ya Gotta Believe," it's now.
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