In the wild-wild world of NFL mock drafting, it is one thing to attempt to prognosticate what team might select which player at the moment of truth, let alone try to hypothecate on a prospective trade down scenario. So, while we’re at it, why not a double trade-down scenario?
For sake of discussion, we’re going to assume that the cost to trade up to get the Detroit Lions “best player available” is too prohibitive to jump up the draft board, and they don’t have a player available to them that they would grade as a “value pick” at the 13th overall selection, creating a robust trade down environment.
The telephone rings for Detroit Lions general manager Martin Mayhew, and the San Diego Chargers trade up to the 13th overall selection in the 2011 NFL Draft, by trading the Lions their 18th overall selection in the first round, and their third-round pick at No. 82. With Miami and New England having picks at No. 15 and No. 17 respectively, the San Diego management team charges up the board to thwart the Dolphins and Patriots who run the same base 3-4 defense.
About an hour later, the phone rings again, and this time it is the front office folks from Philadelphia calling to move ahead of the New York Giants. Martin Mayhew, continuing to sense the board will fall to him if he remains patient, trades down with Philly, acquiring their 24th overall selection in the first round, as well as gaining the Eagles third-round pick, No. 86.
With two additional third-round draft picks now in tow, the Detroit Lions would make their first selection in the 2011 NFL Draft with the 24th overall selection, and hold five picks in the top 90. With this kind of ammunition, I think Martin Mayhew could quickly close the gap of the remaining void, and really set the player foundation for the future.
By trading down twice in the first round, gaining two additional third-round picks, the Detroit Lions would have nine total selections in the 2011 NFL Draft. For illustrative purposes, this would be the adjusted selection allocations for Detroit:
No. Rnd Ovrl
1. 1. (24)
2. 2. (44)
3. 3. (75)
4. 3. (82)
5. 3. (86)
6. 4. (108)
7. 5. (140)
8. 6. (188)
9. 7. (234)
In this scenario, HäMMëR’s version 2.1 features new player selections and an updated nine picks in seven rounds. Just to provide continuity, here are links to my series of Detroit Lions mock draft articles:
2011 NFL Mock Draft: HäMMëR Predicts the Detroit Lions v. 2.0
2011 NFL Mock Draft: HäMMëR Predicts the Detroit Lions v. 1.2
2011 NFL Mock Draft: HäMMëR Predicts the Detroit Lions v. 1.1
2011 NFL Mock Draft: Predicting the Detroit Lions
I have been a Detroit Lions mock draft enthusiast for several years. My selections are largely guided by the information made available by the fine people at NFLDraftScout (www.nfldraftscout.com) and Drafttek (www.drafttek.com). Michael Sudds (http://bleacherreport.com/users/281804-michael-sudds) is a draft prospect authority whose opinion I also highly value. I would like to credit these sources and make them available to you in your quest to “mock the Detroit Lions draft” like many of the Pride Faithful.
I try to allow for a reasonable number of compensatory picks beginning at the end of the third round, and each round thereafter, to give a more realistic feel for where the overall selection will be made. When appropriate, I will offer primary and alternate player picks for each prospective draft selection.
Let’s get the double trade-down theory version 2.1 started with a lightning-fast Mustang!